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Charts for boxes and appendices in IR 2/2004

Charts for boxes and appendices in IR 2/2004. Charts for boxes and appendices. Box 1 Recent developments. Chart 1 CPI-ATE 1) . Total and by supplier sector 2) . 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04. Goods and services produced in Norway. CPI-ATE. Imported consumer goods.

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Charts for boxes and appendices in IR 2/2004

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  1. Charts for boxes and appendices in IR 2/2004

  2. Charts for boxes and appendices

  3. Box 1 Recent developments

  4. Chart 1 CPI-ATE1).Total and by supplier sector2).12-month rise.Per cent. Jan01 – May 04 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  5. Chart 2 Prices for selected imported consumer goods1).12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 2004 – May 2004 Cars (9) Audiovisual equipment (3) Clothing and footwear (7) 1) Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  6. Chart 3 Prices for goods and services produced in Norway1).12-month rise.Per cent.Jan01 – May 04 Services with wages as a dominant factor (7) House rent (18) Consumer goods produced in Norway excluding energy products2) (20) Other services (20) 1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy productsPercentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets.Norges Bank's estimates 2) Excluding agricultural and fish products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  7. Chart 4 Air fares1).12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 04 – May 04 1) Adjusted for tax changes Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  8. Chart 5 CPI and CPI-ATE. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04 CPI CPI-ATE Sources: Statistics Norway

  9. Box 2 Financial stability

  10. Chart 1 Household debt burden1).Quarterly figures.87 Q1 – 06 Q42) 1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income less the return on insurance claims.In the projection it is assumed that debt growth gradually slows and is in line with growth in disposable income in 2006 2) Projections for 2003 – 2006 Source: Norges Bank

  11. Chart 2 Number of bankruptcies, number of employees in bankrupt entities and total market value. Seasonally adjusted index.98 Q4 = 100.98 Q4 – 04 Q1 Market value Number employed Number of bankruptcies Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Box 3 Norges Bank's estimate for the output gap

  13. Chart 1 Estimates of the output gap1).Annual and quarterly figures. 1980 – 2004. Per cent Quarterly figures Annual figures. 1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. Chart 2 Estimates of the output gap1) and the wage gap2).Annual figures. 1992 – 2004 Wage gap Output gap 1) Mainland Norway.Per cent 2) Difference between rise in hourly labour costs in manufacturing in Norway and among trading partners up to and including 2000.Thereafter wage growth in manufacturing as a deviation from 4.5 per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Chart 3 Estimates of the output gap1) and the employment gap. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004.Per cent. Employment gap Output gap 1) Mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. Chart 4 The output gap1).Norges Bank's estimates and estimates based on the production function method. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004.Per cent Norges Bank's estimates Production function 1) Mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway, OECD Economic Outlook no. 75 and Norges Bank

  17. Chart 5 The output gap1).Norges Bank's estimates and estimates based on the UC method and the band-pass filter. Annual figures. 1980 – 2004.Per cent Norges Bank's estimates Bandpass UC 1) Mainland Norway Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  18. Box 4 Changed inflation expectations?

  19. Chart 1 Implied long-term inflation rates1).Daily figures2).1 Jan 98 – 22 Jun 04 UK (2011) US (2010) Euro area (2012) 1) The chart shows expected average annual inflation rates up to the year in question, derived from the yield spread between nominal bonds and inflation-linked bonds.Figures for the euro area are based on French bonds 2) 20-day moving average Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  20. Chart 2 Long-term real interest rates.Daily figures1).1 Jan 98 – 22 Jun 04 US (2010) Euro area (2012) UK (2011) 1) 20-day moving average Source: Bloomberg

  21. Chart 3 Long-term forward interest rate differential against selected countries1).Daily figures2).1. Jan 01 – 21. June 04 UK Euro area US 1) The chart shows the difference between implied 1-year interest rates 9 years ahead in Norway and in seleced countries on the basis of interest rates in the swap market 2) 20-day moving average Source: EcoWin

  22. Box 5 Preliminary assessment of the projections in Inflation Report 1/2004

  23. Chart 1 CPI-ATE1).Total and by supplier sector2).Actual price movements and projections IR 1/04.12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Jul 04 Projections IR 1/04 Domestically produced goods and services (72) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (28) 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Norges Bank's estimates.Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  24. Chart 2 CPI-ATE.Projection IR 1/04, projection from time series model and actual price movements. 12-month rise. Per cent. Dec 03 – Jul 04 Actual CPI-ATE Time series model Projection IR 1/04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  25. Chart 3 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1).Forward exchange rates.Monthly figures Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04) Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04) Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  26. Chart 4 Assumption for the money market rate1).Forward interest rate2).Monthly figures. Per cent 3-month money market rate Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04) Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04) 1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate 2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004.The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 June Source: Norges Bank

  27. Chart 5 Projections for the CPI-ATE and the output gap1) in Inflation Report 1/04 (red) and 2/04 (green).Per cent CPI-ATE IR 1/04 IR 2/04 Output gap 1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  28. Chart 6 CPI-ATE.Total and by supplier sector1).12-month rise.Per cent. Jan01 – Dec 07 Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Projections IR 2/04 Imported consumer goods Projections IR 1/04 1) Norges Bank's estimates Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  29. Chart 7 Mainland GDP.The last two projections published for 2004.Percentage growth 10/03 5/04 3/04 6/04 3/04 7/04 Sources: Ministry of Finance (FIN): National Budget 2004, Revised National Budget 2004. Statistics Norway (SN): Economic Survey 1/2004 and 3/2004. Norges Bank (NB): Inflation Report 1/2004 and 2/2004

  30. Chart 8 CPI-ATE.The last two projections published for 2004.Percentage rise 10/03 5/04 3/04 6/04 3/04 7/04 Sources: Ministry of Finance (FIN): National Budget 2004, Revised National Budget 2004. Statistics Norway (SN): Economic Survey 1/2004 and 3/2004. Norges Bank (NB): Inflation Report 1/2004 and 2/2004

  31. Box 6 What lies behind the rise in futures prices for oil?

  32. Chart 1 Spot and futures prices (6 – 7 years) for oil in the US.USD per barrel. Quarterly figures. 91 Q1 –04 Q2 Spot price Futures price Source: EcoWin

  33. Chart 2 Futures price curves for Brent Blend at three different times with the same spot price (USD 35 per barrel) June 2004 March 2003 August 2000 Number of months to maturity Source: EcoWin

  34. Appendices 4 and 5

  35. 3-month money-market rate and sight deposit rate1).Monthly figures. Jan 95 – May 04 3-month money market rate Sight deposit rate 1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate Source: Norges Bank

  36. 3-month rates in the US, the euro area and Japan. Per cent. Monthly figures. Jan 1995 – May 2004 Euro area1) US Japan 1) Theoretical ECU rate up to December 1998 Source: Norges Bank

  37. Trade-weighted exchange rate index (TWI) and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44). Monthly figures. Jan 95 – May 04 Trade-weighted exchange rate index, TWI (1990=100) Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 (1995=100) Source: Norges Bank

  38. The credit indicator (C2), credit to households and total credit to the non-financial private sector and municipalities, mainland Norway (C3).12-month rise. Per cent. Monthly figures. Jan 97 – Apr 04 Credit to households C2 C3 mainland Norway Source: Norges Bank

  39. Assumption for money market rate. Forward rate. Monthly figures. Per cent 3-month money market rate Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04) Source: Norges Bank

  40. Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44).Forward exchange rate.Monthly figures Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44 Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04) 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

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