Ch. 15 Managing Service Projects

1. Ch. 15 Managing Service Projects

2. 常見的專案問題 • 畢專：開學前完成計畫書（Gantt圖） • 畢旅，或系學會規劃運管營及交通盃 • 借鏡：訪談本系主辦運輸年會之經驗，老師提國科會計畫案 • 包括哪些 activity？Critical path？

3. Learning Objectives 1. the nature of project management (PM) 2. project network and critical path analysis 3. activity crashing: Cost-time Tradeoff 4. incorporating uncertainty in activity times

4. 1. The Nature of PM • Characteristics purpose, life cycle, interdependencies, uniqueness, and conflict. • Process planning (work breakdown structure, WBS), scheduling, and controlling. • Selecting the Project Manager credibility, sensitivity, ability to handle stress, and leadership.

5. 1. The Nature of PM • Building the Project Team Forming, Storming, Norming, and Performing. • Principles of Effective PM direct people individually and as a team, reinforce excitement, keep everyone informed, manage healthy conflict, empower team, encourage risk taking and creativity. • Project Metrics Cost, Time, Performance

6. 1. PM Questions (4W1H) • What activities are required to complete a project and in what sequence? • When should each activity be scheduled to begin and end? • Which activities are critical to completing the project on time? • What is the probability of meeting the project completion due date? • How should resources be allocated to activities?

7. 2. Techniques for PM 1. Gantt chart 2. Project network

8. 2. Tennis Tournament Activities ID Activity Description Network Immediate Duration Node Predecessor (days) 1 Negotiate for Location A - 2 2 Contact Seeded Players B - 8 3 Plan Promotion C 1 3 4 Locate Officials D 3 2 5 Send RSVP Invitations E 3 10 6 Sign Player Contracts F 2,3 4 7 Purchase Balls and Trophies G 4 4 8 Negotiate Catering H 5,6 1 9 Prepare Location I 5,7 3 10 Tournament J 8,9 2

9. Notation for Critical Path Analysis Item Symbol Definition Activity duration t The expected duration of an activity Early start ES The earliest time an activity can begin if all previous activities are begun at their earliest times Early finish EF The earliest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its early start time Late start LSThe latest time an activity can begin without delaying the completion of the project Late finish LFThe latest time an activity can be completed if it is started at its latest start time Total slack TSThe amount of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project

10. Scheduling Formulas ES = EFpredecessor (max) (1) EF = ES + t (2) LF = LSsuccessor (min) (3) LS = LF - t (4) TS = LF - EF (5) TS = LS - ES (6) or

11. Activity on Node Diagram TS ES EF LS LF A2 C3 D2 G4 START E10 I3 J2 B8 F4 H1

12. Early Start Gantt Chart ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 A Negotiate for 2 Location B Contact Seeded 8 Players C Plan Promotion 3 D Locate Officials 2 E Send RSVP 10 Invitations F Sign Player 4 Contracts G Purchase Balls 4 and Trophies H Negotiate 1 Catering I Prepare Location 3 J Tournament 2 Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 Critical Path Activities Activities with Slack

13. Resource Leveled Schedule ID Activity Days Day of Project Schedule 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 A Negotiate for 2 Location B Contact Seeded 8 Players C Plan Promotion 3 D Locate Officials 2 E Send RSVP 10 Invitations F Sign Player 4 Contracts G Purchase Balls 4 and Trophies H Negotiate 1 Catering I Prepare Location 3 J Tournament 2 Personnel Required 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 Critical Path Activities Activities with Slack

14. 3. Costs for Hypothetical Project Total Cost Indirect Cost • Cost Opportunity Cost Direct Cost (0,0) Duration of Project Schedule with Minimum Total Cost

15. Cost-Time Estimates Time Estimate Direct Cost Expedite Cost Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Slope A 2 1 5 15 10 B 8 6 22 30 4 C 3 2 10 13 3 D 2 1 11 17 6 E 10 6 20 40 5 F 4 3 8 15 7 G 4 3 9 10 1 H 1 1 10 10 － I 3 2 8 10 2 J 2 1 12 20 8 Total 115

16. Activity Cost-time Tradeoff Cost Crash C* Slope is cost to expedite per day Normal C D* D Activity Duration (Days)

17. Progressive Crashing Project Activity Direct Indirect Opportunity Total Duration Crashed Cost Cost Cost Cost 20 Normal 115 45 8 168 19 41 6 18 37 4 17 33 2 16 29 0 15 25 -2 14 21 -4 13 17 -6 12 13 -8 Normal Duration After Crashing Activity Project Paths Duration A-C-D-G-I-J 16 A-C-E-I-J 20 A-C-E-H-J 18 A-C-F-H-J 12 B-F-H-J 15

18. 4. Incorporating Uncertainty in Activity times F(D) P(D<A) = .01 P(D>B) = .01 TIME A M D B optimistic most pessimistic likely

19. Formulas for Beta Distribution of Activity Duration 1. Expected Duration 2. Variance Note: (B - A )= Range or

20. Activity Means and Variances Activity A M B D V A 1 2 3 B 5 8 11 C 2 3 4 D 1 2 3 E 6 9 18 F 2 4 6 G 1 3 11 H 1 1 1 I 2 2 8 J 2 2 2

21. Uncertainly Analysis Assumptions 1. Use of Beta Distribution and Formulas For D and V 2. Activities Statistically Independent 3. Central Limit Theorem Applies ( Use “student t” if less than 30 activities on CP) 4. Use of Critical Path Activities Leading Into Event Node Result Project Completion Time Distribution is Normal With: For Critical Path Activities For Critical Path Activities

22. Completion Time Distribution Critical Path ActivitiesDV A 2 4/36 C 3 4/36 E 10 144/36 I 3 36/36 J 20 = 20 188/36 = 5.2 =

23. Question What is the probability of an overrun if a 24 day completion time is promised? Days 24 P (Time > 24) = .5 - .4599 = .04 or 4%

24. Discussion: Applying Theory of Constraints (TOC) to PM • Why does activity safety time exist and is subsequently lost?1. The “student syndrome” procrastination phenomena.2. Multi-tasking muddles priorities.3. Dependencies between activities cause delays to accumulate. • Buffer: Reduce by ½ all activity durations > 3 days to eliminate safety time • Software: Project 2000

25. Exercise Prepare a work breakdown structure (WBS) for a homecoming dance.