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Research Design & Analysis 2: Class 16

Research Design & Analysis 2: Class 16. Announcements : Faculty job interviews Ex-Post-Facto designs (continued) Breast cancer relative risks A comparison of Prospective & Retrospective data Review for Midterm. Colloquium Series: Job Candidate. Margo Watt St. Francis Xavier

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Research Design & Analysis 2: Class 16

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  1. Research Design & Analysis 2: Class 16 Announcements: Faculty job interviews Ex-Post-Facto designs (continued) • Breast cancer relative risks A comparison of Prospective & Retrospective data • Review for Midterm

  2. Colloquium Series: Job Candidate Margo Watt St. Francis Xavier Learning History Origins of Anxiety Sensitivity Monday, March 13, 2000, 3:30 p.m. HSH 202 Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  3. Lifetime Risks of Developing Breast Cancer (US study published in Science ‘93) Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  4. Top 10 Women’s Cancers Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  5. Incidence of Breast Cancer by Stage Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  6. Incident & Mortality Rate Trends Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  7. Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  8. penny Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  9. Relative Risk Ratios for Breast Cancer * * * relative risk >4 * * relative risk of 2- 4 * relative risk of 1.1-1.9 Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  10. Putting risk of Breast Cancer in Perspective One woman in 9 in whom breast cancer will develop, has a 50% chance of receiving the diagnosis after age 65 and a 60% chance of surviving that cancer and dying of other causes Risk of breast cancer in any given decade never exceeds 1 in 34 (at 30 is 1 in 250) Based on editorial in NEJM Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  11. Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  12. Cyclic Moods? How many believe their moods vary with: • Days of the week? • Lunar cycle? • Menstrual cycle? How would you study this? Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  13. Raging female hormones in the courts Macleans, June 15, 1981 Treatment for PMS ordered as stabber put on probation Globe and Mail, Feb 10, 1987 Women’s violence blamed on period Toronto Star, August 25th 1978 Woman’s syndrome brings leniency Vancouver Sun, February 10th, 1987 Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  14. Politics of PMS • 1929 term “premenstrual tension” Dr. Robert Frank • Since 1970’s Dr. Katherine Dalton - supports progesterone therapy • estimates of prevalence 6-95% • 150 somatic and psychological symptoms associated with PMS • According to some, PMS is a social and political construct Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  15. Hormonal Changes Over Menstrual Cycle Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  16. Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder Criteria A: At least five of the following, present during last week of luteal phase, remit within days of follicular phase onset and absent week postmenses (1) markedly depressed mood, feelings of hopelessness. or self deprecating thoughts (2) marked anxiety, tension, feelings of being "keyed up.' or "on edge" (3) marked affective lability, (e.g.. feeling suddenly sad or tearful or increased sensitivity to rejection) (4) persistent and marked anger or irritability or increased interpersonal conflicts (5) decreased interest in usual activities (e.g., work, school, friends, hobbies) from DSM IV Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  17. Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder Criteria Continued: (6) subjective sense of difficulty in concentrating (7) lethargy, easy fatigability or marked lack of energy (8)marked change in appetite, overeating, or specific food cravings (9) hypersomnia or insomnia (10) a subjective sense of being overwhelmed or out of control (11) other physical symptoms, such as breast tenderness or swelling, headaches, joint or muscle pain, a sensation of "bloating," Weight gain from DSM IV Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  18. Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder Criteria Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  19. Comparing Retrospective and Prospective DataMood Fluctuations:Women versus men and menstrual versus other cyclesJessica McFarland, et. al. Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  20. McFarland et.al. Methodological problems with existing literature: • demand characteristics (expectations of participants, bias, volunteers) • Measured negative moods (truncated range) • Retrospective reports • No control groups • No assessment of “normal” range of moods Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  21. McFarland et.al. Data suggest menstrual cycle related mood effects are not an issue, yet the belief is there Why? • The methodological flaws mentioned • Women believe they have menstrual mood fluctuations when they do not. Two questions of interest: • Do women have classic cyclic mood fluctuation? • Are women’s moods more labile than men’s Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  22. McFarland et.al. Methods: Studies both prospectively and retrospectively Participants blind to purpose Recorded moods for 70n days (at least 2 cycles) 3 groups: 1) normally cycling women, 2) women on O.C.s and 3) men Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  23. Mood grid Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  24. Mood Pleasantness Women: NC Women: OC Men Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  25. Concurrent reports Retrospective reports Arousal Levels:women only concurrent vs. retrospective reports Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  26. Concurrent reports Retrospective reports Mood Pleasantness:women only: concurrent vs. retrospective reports Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  27. Concurrent reports Retrospective reports Mood Pleasantness Ratings by days of the Week Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  28. Data on Prevalence of PMS Symptoms • In surveys, most women report being more emotional premenstrually • With prospective studies, most women do not show any relationship between mood and “time of month” • Of those who report PMS symptoms, only 50% actually have these mood fluctuations • Significant positive correlation between a woman’s belief in PMS prevalence and the extent of her retrospective bias. Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  29. Midterm Review • Factorial Experiments: Advantages • Factorial designs: terminology • #levels IV1 x #levels IV2 x etc. • Interpreting data from factorial experiments and experiments with three or more levels of one (ANOVA outputs & from data) • Ex-post-facto designs: prospective and retrospective designs - advantages disadvantages • Problems & Partial solutions: Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

  30. Midterm Review • DVs used in Ex-post-facto studies • Time-series designs, small-n designs • A-B studies (e.g., homicides after prize fights, JFK’s assassination etc.) • multiple baseline designs • non-equivalent control group • replication within- and between-subjects • reliability and generalizability • Assessing external and ecological validity • Volunteers Psyc2023 Class#16 (c) Peter McLeod

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