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Agenda

Breakfast Seminar of the United Nations Population Division at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA), 2-6 May 2012, San Francisco World Population Prospects How to take account of uncertainty?.

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Agenda

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  1. Breakfast Seminar of the United Nations Population Division at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (PAA), 2-6 May 2012, San FranciscoWorld Population ProspectsHow to take account of uncertainty? United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Population Division - Population Estimates and Projections Sectionwww.unpopulation.org 2 May 2012

  2. Agenda • Welcome • Gerhard Heilig (United Nations) [7:15 - 7:25] The World Population Prospects and the World Urbanization Prospects: Preparation and outputs. (Overview) Adrian Raftery (University of Washington) [7:25 – 7:35] Methodology of a Bayesian hierarchical model of fertility projection. (Focus on high- and medium-fertility countries) Patrick Gerland (United Nations) [7:35 – 7:50] Probabilistic methods for projecting fertility: Methodological advances and challenges. (Focus on below-replacement fertility countries) • John Bongaarts(Population Council) [7:50 – 8:00] • Comments on the fertility models in the World Population Prospects • Open Discussion (with all participants)[8:00 – 8:20]

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