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Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Emerging issues and new risk patterns: what is needed for identifying risk ? Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP. Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management. 23-24 May 2006, WMO Geneva, Switzerland. Expected Nb people killed, economical losses.

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Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

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  1. Emerging issues and new risk patterns: what is needed for identifying risk? Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP Symposium on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management 23-24 May 2006, WMO Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Expected Nb people killed, economical losses Frequency and magnitude of the hazards Population, infrastructures, … other element in the exposed areas Degree of fragility of the exposed elements [0;1] Physical Exposure Risk evaluation Risk = Hazard x Element exposed x Vulnerability* * UNDRO (1979), Natural Disasters and Vulnerability Analysis in Report of Expert Group Meeting

  3. UNEP - PREVIEW database Used for the UNDP Disaster Risk Index and for the Hotspots study (cyclones/volcanoes) PREVIEW: Cyclones, floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, forest fires, drought. www.grid.unep.ch/preview

  4. Http://www.grid.unep.ch/data/grid/gnv200.php Modellisation of past tropical cyclones (1979 - 2005) Cyclone’sDirection

  5. From frequency to exposuresique Please visit www.grid.unep.ch/preview to see and access data on earthquakes, volcanoes, drought, forest fires, floods, cyclones, tsunami.

  6. Vulnrability and developmentResult from the DRI analysis

  7. Hazard Hazard (new hazard, or higherfrequency or strength) Element exposed Vulnerability Vulnerability Element exposed How can risk increase ? Risk

  8. A Growing population The world population reaches 6.4 billions (2004) +80 millions /year, (equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam) In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions

  9. Homo Sapiens: an urban species Urban world population Urban population (%) Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004 NASA, DSMP 31.6% of urban population is living in slums

  10. Mexico city • 1973 (9 millions inhabitants) • 1986 (14 millions) • 2000 (20 millions) On 19 sept. 1985 an earthquake stroke Mexico killing 9500 and causing more than 4 billions US$ damages (Em-Dat). At that time Mexico had around 14 millions inhab.

  11. Increasing climatic disasters? P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005 Data sources, OFDA/CRED, EM-DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

  12. Glacier are losing between 0.2 and 1 m of thickness every year. Aletsch glacier between 1905 and 2005 (Switzerland) Permafrost limit is higher Rocks and debris are exposed 1/6 of world population depends on glaciers for water supply.

  13. March 2004 Sources NASA: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12033 Since mid-1960's, no hurricane has ever been observed in the South Atlantic. Identifying hazards,… but there are surprises Catarina, 4 killed, 350 mio US$ damages

  14. Tropical cyclones affected by global warming ? • 2005, warmest year in northern hemisphere • Highest number of Tropical cyclones. (26)(14 became tropical cyclones and 7 supercyclones). Previous record = 21 in 1933. • 2005 highest economical losses from climatic events: 200 billions US$ losses. (Katrina alone:125 billions US$). • Strongest winds: Wilma gusts of winds reaching 330 km/h. Lowest central pressure 882 hPa (previous record 888 hPa - Gilbert in 1988).

  15. Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ? Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.

  16. Santa Cruz, Boliva: Land Use Change Deforestation and soil erosion/landslides? Body text • 1975: Forests • 2000: agriculture fields for large companies

  17. Deforestation and landslides induced by tropical cyclones P.Peduzzi, Environment & Poverty Times, UNEP, 2005

  18. Date Mio ha 1900 14,5 1955 11,8 1965 9.0 1973 6,2 1980 4.0 19901 2,7 Effect of deforestation on precipitations ? Primary forest extent in Ivory Coast 20052 0.63 Cartography: UNEP/GRID-Arendal 2005 – 1900: -95.65% 1 Harcourt et Collins (1992) 2 FAO (2005)

  19. Precipitations has a cyclic pattern… sure ? Trend line -> y = 89.5936 - 0.0366651 x Annual trend -> - 5.28 mm / year Yearly average reduce by 374.9 mm lost between 1922 and 1993

  20. Correlation between forest cover in Ivory Coast and precipitation in Dedougou Mil request 600 mm For growing

  21. Lake Chad (from 23’000 km2 to 300 km2 in 2001) Sources: UNEP (2005) One planet Many People

  22. Summary of environmental changes & hazards • Landslides: higher frequencies due to higher permafrost limit at high altitude and from deforestation. • Floods: higher frequency due to higher concentration of water vapour and higher evaporation. • Tropical cyclones : either more frequent or more powerful. (Webster et al. 2005) • Drought: higher evaporation might induce more frequent drought. Removal of vegetation reduces rains. • Heatwave: probability of occurrence is increasing (Stott and al., 2005) • Costal erosion: 15-20cm / century (Miller & Douglas 2005).Might cause 50-200 millions eco-refugees by 2080 (Nicholls, 2004).

  23. Increase in Vulnerability • AIDS • Conflicts • Poverty • Environmental degradation

  24. 7 causes for failure in risk reduction • Ignorance of a new dangere.g. long latent periods before impacts • Under estimation of a danger: the wait & see approach. • Short-term vision e.g. decision taken from past situations without taking into account increase and changes. • Trust in future technologies that will solve the issue later. • Prioritizing economical/political benefits versus sustainable development(costly or unpopular decisions). • Following general move (e.g. not willing to apply stricter rules if others do not apply them.) • Scare by costs of false alarm (crying wolf)

  25. 7 ways to improve risk management governance • Better consideration of scientific (early) warning • Identification of trends (incl. Climate change) • Development of plans for urban growth (and land planning). • Prioritise sustainable use of resources over short-term benefit (protection of oceans, forest, climate). • Apply precautionary Principle. • Eliminate corruption. • Take long term impacts / costs into consideration for decision making

  26. 7 needs for risk reduction • Improve understanding of new issues (climate change, risk patterns and trends). • Free access to data on risk issues (e.g. precipitation, temperature, natural resources) for stimulating researches. • Better public support of monitoring centres (such as meteorological stations). • New law and control enforcements • Place scientists, industries and politics at the same table. • Develop public awareness (schools, media,…) • Better understanding of interconnectivity between natural features & hazards, SST.

  27. References: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005), Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science. Nicholls, R.J., (2004), Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios". In Global Environmental Change, 14(1):69-86. Miller, l., B.C. Douglas, (2004), Mass and volume contributions to twentieth-century global sea level rise”, in Nature, Vol. 428, pp.406-409. UNEP, (2005), One Planet Many People: an atlas of our changing environment. 334 p. Migraine, J.B., P. Peduzzi (under preparation), Analysing global precipitation trends (1901 - 2000) Peduzzi, P., C. Herold, W. Silverio, (under preparation), Impacts of climate change on Coropuna glacier and related threat on water supplies. Peduzzi, P. (2005), Tropical cyclones: paying a high price for environmental destruction, in Environment & Poverty Times, No.3, Special Edition for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 18-22, 2005, Kobe, Japan. Giuliani, G., A., De Bono, K., Kluser, P., Peduzzi (2004), Overfishing, a major threat to the global marine ecology. UNEP

  28. Thank you Please visit www.grid.unep.ch/preview

  29. Late lessons from Early Warning:the precautionary principle 1896-2000 http://www.energyrisks.jrc.nl/library/LibraryChapter2/Chapter2pdfs/Precautionary-Principle-EEA-Harremoes.pdf

  30. Sources UNDP 2003 Sources UNDP 2003

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