1 / 14

Causal Data Mining

Causal Data Mining. Richard Scheines Dept. of Philosophy, Machine Learning, & Human-Computer Interaction Carnegie Mellon. 1. Predictive Data Mining. Finding predictive relationships in data What feature of student behavior predicts learning Who will default on credit cards

jamesmhoward
Download Presentation

Causal Data Mining

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. CausalData Mining Richard Scheines Dept. of Philosophy, Machine Learning, & Human-Computer Interaction Carnegie Mellon

  2. 1. Predictive Data Mining Finding predictive relationships in data • What feature of student behavior predicts learning • Who will default on credit cards • Who will get an “A” in your course • Which HS students will do well at CMU • Do students cluster by “learning style”

  3. Causal Data Mining Finding causal relationships in data • What feature of student behavior causes learning • What will happen when we make everyone take a reading quiz before each class • What will happen when we program our tutor to intervene to give hints after an error

  4. Predictive Data Mining Data Mining Search Predictive Model Y = f(X1, X2, …Xk)

  5. Predictive Data Mining • Model Classes • Simple Regression • Locally Weighted Regression • Logistic Regression • Neural Nets • Vector Support Machines • Decision Trees • Bayes Net • Naïve Bayes Classifier • Independent Components • Clustering • Etc. Data Mining Search Predictive Model Y = f(X1, X2, …Xk)

  6. Predictive Data Mining Data Mining Search Predictive Model under Constraints Y = f(X1, X2, …Xk), e.g., f  Additive functions

  7. Predictive Data Mining Data Mining Search Predictive Model under Constraints Y = f(X1, X2, …Xk), Or Probability Model under Constraints: P(Y | X1, X2, …, Xk), where P  Gaussian, with mean 0

  8. Predictive Data Mining Decision Tree Search

  9. Predictive Data Mining ≠Causal Data Mining P(Y | X1, X2, …, Xk)  P(Y | X1set, X2, …, Xk) Conditioning is not the same as intervening Teeth Slides

  10. Statistical Inference Background Knowledge - X2 before X3 - no unmeasured common causes Causal DiscoveryStatistical DataCausal Structure

  11. Causal Discovery SoftwareTETRAD IV www.phil.cmu.edu/projects/tetrad

  12. Full Semester Online Course in Causal & Statistical Reasoning

  13. Full Semester Online Course in Causal & Statistical Reasoning • Course is tooled to record certain events: • Logins, page requests, print requests, quiz attempts, quiz scores, voluntary exercises attempted, etc. • Each event was associated with attributes: • Time • student-id • Session-id

  14. 2002 2003 Printing and Voluntary Comprehension Checks: 2002 --> 2003

More Related