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Options for change – enabling technologies

Options for change – enabling technologies. Mark Akhurst BP Plc. Emission reduction. A further shift to natural gas. Nuclear power. Renewables. Bio-products. Carbon capture and storage. Energy conservation and efficiency. Mass transportation. Road transport. Buildings.

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Options for change – enabling technologies

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  1. Options for change – enabling technologies Mark Akhurst BP Plc

  2. Emission reduction A further shift to natural gas Nuclear power Renewables Bio-products Carbon capture and storage Energy conservation and efficiency Mass transportation Road transport Buildings Low energy appliances Doing things differently Options for change – enabling technologies

  3. Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year 14 14 GtC/y Currently projected path Seven “wedges” O Historical emissions 7 GtC/y 7 Flatpath 0 2100 1950 2000 2050 Options for Change - Princeton Wedges Model 1.9  Illustrating the scale of the challenge

  4. Natural Gas for Power Generation • Effort needed by 2050 for 1GT C reduction: • 1400 new gas fired power stations • = approx 2 per month • 190 bcfd NG by 2050 • Alaska pipeline would be ~ 4 bcf. Current proven reserves of natural gas ~ 65 years Increased shift to gas would reduce this Challenge is to discover new reserves of natural gas, and equally importantly, bring this gas to markets

  5. Power with Carbon Capture and Storage Effort needed by 2050 for 1GT C reduction: Carbon capture and storage at 700 GW coal power plants. Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

  6. Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: 3500 Sleipners A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today Start now to gain experience with the permitting of storage sites. Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

  7. Nuclear Electricity Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: Add 700 GW (twice current capacity): fourteen 1-GW plants/year. Requires 4% pa CAGR (compared with 2% CAGR since 1990). Plutonium (Pu) produced by 2050, if fuel cycles are unchanged: 4000 t Pu (and another 4000 t Pu if current capacity is continued). Compare with ~ 1000 t Pu in all current spent fuel, ~ 100 t Pu in all U.S. weapons. Graphic courtesy of NRC Potential Pitfalls: Nuclear proliferation and terrorism Nuclear waste, NIMBY

  8. Wind Electricity • Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: • 300,000 5MW windmills. • Today: 5MW turbines are still in prototype phase (2MW is standard) • Land cover = Portugal • 1% of world steel prod’n • US built 2700 liberty ships in 5 years Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

  9. Solar PV Electricity Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: 700 times current capacity = 60 times faster (linear) growth rate than current 10 million hectares of land (less than 0.1% of world’s land, half the land area of Barbados) Compare: land area required for 1GT reductions with biofuels = 250 million hectares) Photo courtesy of BP

  10. Biofuels Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels 250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland). Transport may not be best use of biomass/biofuel resources Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_

  11. Mass Transportation Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: Mass transportation replaces 50% of projected road travel in small/medium vehicles GHG per capita varies within 3:1 range in developed nations 6000 kg/capita in USA 2000 kg/capita in Germany Role of mass transportation is a key element

  12. Road Transport – vehicle efficiency Advanced fuels & lubes Lightweight materials Increased dieselisation (eg USA) Hybrids Photo courtesy of Toyota Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT C reduction: 1 billion cars on the roads today 2 billion by 2050 Current average efficiency 20 - 30 mpg 2050 average efficiency 50 - 60 mpg

  13. Buildings / Low Energy Appliances • Example: • 10 billion incandescent lamps today plus significant lighting by direct fuel burning • 50 billion by 2050 • Full replacement with efficient bulbs (eg. LED) reduces 0.5 Gt/yr C in 2050, assuming existing carbon intensity of power generation Space heating/cooling Water heating Lighting Appliances Effort needed by 2050 for 1 GT: Buildings emit 3.9 Gt/yr carbon = 20% of total Cutting emissions from buildings by 25% from 2050 BAU = 1 Gt/yr C More than half potential in developing regions

  14. Doing things differently Not a capping or reduction in valuable activity. Reducing unnecessary, and unvalued waste: eg current standby capacity in USA = xx large power stations running at full capacity. A shift in perception of “wealth” and “value” – recent examples of low-carbon wealth creation: - cell phones - IT / software / computer games Urban Design Telecommuting On demand services Radical business models Low-carbon wealth creation

  15. Humanity Already has the Tools • READINESS: All wedge technologies are already deployed somewhere at commercial scale. • PORTFOLIO: No single wedge technology can do the whole job, or even half the job. • CHOICE: Not every wedge technology is needed.

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