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Opportunities for Investment in the current Canadian power climate

Opportunities for Investment in the current Canadian power climate. Presented to The Canada Europe Energy Round Table for Business The 2004 Energy Round Table September 20, 2004. Bob Livet, P.Eng. Vice President Energy Operations AMEC Americas Limited. Regulatory Framework.

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Opportunities for Investment in the current Canadian power climate

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  1. Opportunities for Investment in the current Canadian power climate Presented to The Canada Europe Energy Round Table for Business The 2004 Energy Round Table September 20, 2004 Bob Livet, P.Eng. Vice President Energy Operations AMEC Americas Limited

  2. Regulatory Framework • Electricity is a Provincial Jurisdiction • Among Major Utilities: • 10 have Provincial / Territorial Ownership • 6 are Investor Owned • 2 have Municipal Ownership • Utility Industry is Vertically Integrated • Canada signed Kyoto Protocol in 2003 • Federal and Provincial Government Negotiate CO2 Targets • Federal Government Establishes Renewable Energy Credits • Some Provinces Provide Further Tax Incentives • Has Stimulated a Demand for Renewable Energy

  3. Canadian Electricity Generation by Type: as % of Total, 2003

  4. Canadian Electricity Generation by Region and Type TWH, 2003

  5. Canada – U.S. Electricity Trade: TWh, 1991 to 2003

  6. Canadian Net Exports by Province: GWh, 2003

  7. CEA (2001) Electricity Demand Projection TWh, 2000 - 2020 • New demand, plant replacements and export requires significant new capacity over the next 20 years • By 2020, demand will be 670 TWh, coming from new plants – 35% of year 2000 production • New investments of over 20,000 MW per decade to 2020 • $ 150 Billion Cdn in investment needed.

  8. Emerging Renewables and Alternatives:Generation Capacity, 2002 • Emerging renewables and alternatives include: • wind, solar, tidal, biomass, bio-gas, solid waste • More than 7000 GWh were generated in 2002 by Emerging Renewable and Alternative Energy sources • Source: CIEECAC Annual Renewable Energy Review, March 2003

  9. Renewable Energy • Positive Public Acceptance • Tax and Cash Incentives • Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) • Class 43.1 Accelerated Write Off • Canadian Renewable & Conservation Expenses (CRCE) • Municipal Funding Sources • Retail Tax Credits (some Provinces) • Wind Power Coupled with Hydro Electric Power makes Economic Sense • Transmission Grid Stability / Upgrades

  10. Recent Structural Changes • Nova Scotia has Privatized its Electric Utility • British Columbia, Quebec and New Brunswick have implemented limited restructuring • Alberta and Ontario have opened their electricity markets to competition

  11. Experience with Restructuring • Alberta opened its market to competition in 2001 • Resultant consumer price spikes caused government to intervene with price subsidies • Ontario followed in May 2002 • Unusually hot weather and supply shortages caused price spikes and government reacted by freezing retail electricity rates

  12. REVIEW OF MAJOR CANADIAN POWER GENERATION MARKETS Alberta Ontario Quebec

  13. Alberta – Current Status • Open Market for Wholesale and Retail Electricity Suppliers • Market administered through the AESO and EUB • AESO is responsible for Transmission Planning • Generators can sell: • Bid to the Pool • Pool Pricing based on merit order dispatch • Firm Capacity under Contract • Can export power to Other Jurisdiction • Application for new Generation Facilities made to EUB • Alberta is net importer of power • (312 GWHR 2002) (257 GWNR 2003)

  14. Alberta – Growth Activity • First supercritical coal fired plant in Canada under construction (450 MW) • Addition of cogeneration facilities from oil sand developments • Opportunities for Renewable Energy Projects • Mandated Green Energy Mix (3.5% Target) • CO2 Emission Credits • Consumers willing to pay more • Government recognizes need for improving grid capacity

  15. Ontario – Current Status • New Government (2003) lifted price freeze • Stated goal to shut down all coal fired plants by Dec 07 (7500 MW) • Proposes a Mixed Market Arrangement (Bill 100) • Regulate Power Sales from Heritage Assets (OPG) • Free Market Pricing for other Generators based on • Merit Order Dispatch • Regulated Retail Price to Small Consumers • (<250,000 kWhr/ year)

  16. Ontario – Electricity Supply Forecast

  17. OntarioObjectives - Renewables • Established Renewable Energy Targets • 1,350 MW by 2007 • 3,000 MW by 2011 • Qualifying facilities are: • Wind Energy Centers • Water Power Facilities • Energy Projects using Biomass, Bio Fuel, Bio Gas or Landfill Gas • Minimum Capacity of 0.5 MW

  18. OntarioObjective - Renewables • First Solicitation for 300 MW closed Aug.27,04 • Successful Bidders Announced Jan.05 • Further Call for Proposals expected next year • Requirements for participation: • Own or Lease the Site • Proponent Team to have Prior Experience • Commit to all technical & financial requirements of the RFP • Responsible for Environmental Approval & Permitting • Bears All Cost for System Connection and Upgrades

  19. Ontario – Other RFP • Seeks proposals for 2500 MW of: • New Clean Intermediate Generation (Gas as Primary Fuel) • Demand Reduction Projects • DSM Projects • Minimum 5 MW Capacity • Time Line: • Pre-qualification of Proponents – Sep. 04 • Issue Request for Proposals – Sep. 04 • Submission of Bids – Nov. 04 • Announcement of Successful Bidders – Jan. 05

  20. Quebec – Current Status • Quebec Energy Board • Responsible for Regulatory Supervision of Transmission and Distribution • Hydro Quebec remains a Crown Corporation divided into 4 Divisions: • HQ Distribution (Responsible for Generation Planning) • HQ Production • HQ Equipment • HQ Trans Energy (Responsible for Transmission) • Substantial North American Market Access via its Transmission System)

  21. Quebec – Current Status cont’d • HQ Distribution is mandated to call tenders for New Generation Requirements. • Proponent enters into a Power Purchase Agreement (20-25 Yr) • HQ Production can sign Power Purchase Agreements • Quebec is a major Exporter of Energy to US Markets • Peak Demand has reached Capacity

  22. Quebec Power Generation Mix • Sources • 147 Hydroelectric Plants (tot. 34,172 MW) • 29 Thermal Stations (oil & gas; tot. 1,621 MW) • 1 nuclear plant (675 MW) • 9 Biomass Facilities (tot. 208 MW) • 136 Wind Turbines (tot. 102 MW)

  23. Quebec - Objectives • Development of Renewable Energy • Substantial Hydro Storage Capacity encourages Development of Wind Energy Projects • Recent tender calls: • 600 MW of gas fired generation • 1000 MW of Wind Power Projects (Award in Sep 04) • Expected future tender calls: • 600 MW Gas Fired Cogeneration (late 2004) • Small Hydro Developments (<50 MW) • 1000 MW of new Wind Power Projects

  24. Investment Opportunities in Other Provinces • Nova Scotia • Ageing Coal fired plants require investment in pollution control equipment • New Brunswick • Market opens to Wholesalers & Large Industrial Users Oct. 1, 04 • Refurbishment of Pt. Lepreau or 600 MW of Replacement Capacity by 2009 • Seeking private investor • British Columbia • Wind / Hydraulic Benefit • Base Load growing in GVRD

  25. Summary – Canadian Power Market • Provinces take different approaches to Open Electricity Market • Large Investment required till 2020 (Cdn $ 150 B) • Private Funding Sources Required • Renewable Energy has Broad Political and Public Support • Good Opportunities in several Provinces • Federal and Provincial Incentives Available • Market for Emission Credits being developed

  26. AMEC • International Project Management and Services Company • Office network across the Americas, Continental Europe and Asia • AMEC Manages Projects Worldwide • Annual Revenues of CAD 10.4 Billion in 2003 • Employs 45,000 People in over 40 Countries • In Canada AMEC has 4000 Employees and 78 Offices • Sectors: Transport, Oil & Gas, Power, Infrastructure and Industry and Commerce • Designs and Implements Power Generation and Transmission Facilities since 1907 www.amec.com

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