Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodríguez achavezr@avantel School of Engineering University of Chihuahua

1. Climate Change and Adaptive Management in EU and Beyond Vingted, Denmark March, 2009 Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodríguez achavezr@avantel.net School of Engineering University of Chihuahua Chihuahua, Mexico Consultant to the World Bank for Participative Groundwater Management

2. MAEXICAN LAW OF NATIONAL WATERS TÍTULO PRIMERO Capítulo Único ARTICLE 1. La presente Ley esreglamentaria del Artículo 27de la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos en materia de aguas nacionales; es de observancia general en todo el territorio nacional, sus disposiciones son de orden público e interés social y tiene por objeto regular la explotación, uso o aprovechamientode dichas aguas, su distribución y control, así como la preservación de su cantidad y calidad “to achieve an integrated and sustainable development”.

3. INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES All the sources - All the uses Quantity and quality being considered

4. GW MANAGEMENT AS A PROCESS UNCERTAINTY C H A O S YEARS

5. ANNUAL PUMPING VOLUMES PER USE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO Municipal Agriculture R E P D A, CONAGUA

6. G-W OVER-EXPLOITATION • Degradation of aquatic ecosystems • Adverse economic impacts, such as inutilization of wells, the need to drill deeper, increments in the cost of pumping, etc. • In (semi-)arid lands, the chemical quality of GW usually degrades with the excesive decline of GW levels.

7. S T A G E S O F G-W E X P L O I T A T I O N Aquatic ecosystems degradation G-W withdrawal begins G-W salinity becomes inconvenient Excesive cost of agric. pumping Pumping physically unsustainable Persistent use of non-renewable reserve Prepumping condition Recharge = Natural Discharge Over - exploitation

9. GW – ONLY SOURCE OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY FOR THIS U.S.A. - MEXICO BORDER REGION Bolsón del Hueco JUAREZ NEW MEXICO TEXAS CHIHUAHUA THE HUECO BOLSON AQUIFER IS SHARED BY THREE STATES: CHIHUAHUA, TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO

12. G-W and SUSTAINABILITY “ In 2005, there were “officially” 102 over-exploited aquifersin México (Marín, 2004)…….. But depending on the manner in which G-W budgets are calculated, as many as 150 aquifers may be over-exploited” (O. Escolero, former goverment official in oral communication to Marín(2006).

13. G-W and SUSTAINABILITY “One importantt reason for concern in the Mexican academic community is that the published goverment official reportsare not subject to any kind of peer review or technical auditing …….. ….. Therefore, there is big questioning about the credibility of these reports …….. ….….This is particularly distressful regarding the published G-W availability that can be allocated. “ (Marín, 2006)

15. G-W and SUSTAINABILITY • Recent research in different (semi-)arid lands in the world(1998 a 2007), including Arizona, New Mexico and West Texas, shows the aquifer recharge has been traditionally overestimated. • Same results have been found in the University of Chihuahua for aquifers in the (semi-) arid lands of Mexico. • There is evidence that most of the published official figures of G-W availability are overestimated. .

17. FUENTE DE DATOS: CONAGUA R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS

18. EXTRACCIÓN FUENTEDE DATOS: CONAGUA R E P D A Y ESTUDIOS TÉCNICOS

19. G-W and SUSTAINABILITY Free pumping allowed in the desert by law !! and not only for human consumption or small family farms, but for a highly intensive agricultural activity, which leads very quickly to over-exploitation. Is this reasonable at all ???.

20. Society Governmt Science Trialogue Model Interface Interface Gobernance Interface Adapted from Turton et al., (2005)

21. THE TRIALOGUE MODEL OF GOVERNANCE GOVERNANCE is being defined as the process of informed decision-making that enables trade-off’s between competing users of a given resource so as to balance protection and use in such a way as to: (a) mitigate conflict, (b) enhance security, (c) ensure sustainability, and (d) hold government officials accountablefor their actions. More specifically, what are being called Actor-Clusters, are considered to be extremely important, of which there are three main sets.

24. ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES An adaptive management approach to water resources management implies a systematic approach that builds on trial and error utilizing feedback loops to allow us to learn from experience and to adjust our water management practices to address evolving issues and conditions. Adaptive management typically focuses on developing an understanding of the baseline physical (e.g., climate/hydrological), legal and socioeconomic aspects of a region or a basin.

25. ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES It also includes (a) quantifying management and scientific uncertainties and sensitivities, (b) predicting ranges of potential changes, and (c) developing testable management options and scenarios. Finally, it includes planning for and managing those changes to reduce management risks or to take advantage of potential new opportunities that may present themselves (i.e., not all climate change or variability is "bad").

28. MODELING PROTOCOL ModelCARE 2007 Copenhagen, Denmark September 9-13, 2007 Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling Credibility of Modelling

29. ORIGINAL GROUNDWATER-FLOW MODEL P R E A U D I T Incorporation of new observation wells, water-level data and boundary-flow observations Incorporation of stresses acting in the audit period (mainly pumping) ANALYSIS OF REPRESENTATIVENESS PREDICTIVE SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH ALL OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA, AND BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS Examination of scattergrams and hydrographs (observed vs. predicted heads and flows), and spatial distribution of residuals for selected times. Usually, only total depth of observation wells is available, and used along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution) Ideally, use of well cuttings, geophysical logs, design and completion data of the observation wells, along with topographical and hydrological maps, and visual interpretation of water-level maps (depth, elevation & evolution) DETERMINATION OF OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND BOUNDARY-FLOWS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE MAIN AQUIFER PREDICTIVE SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS WITH REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATION WELLS, WATER-LEVEL DATA AND BOUNDARY-FLOW OBSERVATIONS CONCEPTUAL AND / OR INPUT DATA ERRORS IDENTIFIED OR SUGGESTED Groundwater monitoring network for modeling and management MODEL REDESIGN OR MULTIMODELS

32. COOPERATIVE MODELING • Equitable allocation of GW resources is a growing challenge. • While scientists can contribute to a technically defensible basis for water resource planning, this framework must be cast in a broader societal and environmental context. • Given the complexity and often contentious nature of resource allocation, success requires a process for inclusive and transparent sharing of ideas complemented by tools to structure, quantify, and visualize the collective understanding and data, providing an informed basis of dialogue, exploration and decision making.

33. COOPERATIVE MODELING • Ideally, a process that promotes shared learning leading to cooperative and adaptive planning decisions. • While variously named, mediated modeling, group modeling, cooperative modeling, shared vision planning, or computer mediated collaborative decision making are similar approaches aimed at meeting these objectives.

34. The Big Picture • Archaic and obsolete legal framework for water • Basis in legal property rights • Failure to provide for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater • Changing demands • Growing Municipal and Industrial (M&I) use • No increase in supplies • Environmental demands • Transboundary Conflicts • Changing climate • Short term droughts • Long-term changes in amount and characteristics of supply

35. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION Dr. Adolfo Chávez Rodríguez Hidrogeologist G R A C I A S