As Perspectivas de Combustíveis Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo

1. As Perspectivas de Combustíveis Líquidos Alternativos no Mundo Seminário “Perspectivas Energéticas para América Latina” 18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP) Dr. Francisco Rosillo-Calle Imperial College London (University of London)

2. RESUMO • O papel da indústria do automóvel • Mudanças/implicações • Os grandes desafios • Cenários- ER • Cenários – transporte • Combustíveis principais no mundo • Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural, etanol, biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo, hidrogênio, DME, ETBE, células combustíveis

3. The Role of the Automobile Industry/O papel das Montadoras • Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels (RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As mudanças no sistema de combustíveis dependem de muitos fatores • They are interrelated to the: • Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel • Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores • Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de combustíveis • Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e custos de combustíveis • Social, economic, political….. changes

4. O Papel/…. • WE drive on industrially manufactured fuels. the tech is constantly improving under constant socio-econimic and enviromental pressures” / Nós usamos combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia muda constantemente, devido a pressões sociais, ambientais e econômicas” • Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always sufficient

5. O Papel … • The automobile industry is going through major changes/Grandes mudanças no setor • Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial • Intensive competition/ Forte competição • Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de benefícios é muito pequena • The industry has invested massively on oil-based fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos combustíveis fósseis

6. The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em 2003 • GM 8.59 M units (185.5$B) • Toyota 6.78 (153.1$B) • Ford 6.54 (154.2$B) • VW 5.02 (98.4$B) • DaimerC 4.36 (171.9$B) • PSA/Peugeot 3.29 (61.2$B) • Hyundai 3.05 (38.9$B) • Nissan 2.97 (65.8$B) • Honda/ 2.39 (42.4$B) Renault

7. O Papel… • The industry make 60 M cars & trucks/yr /Produz 60 M de veículos/ano • In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de veículos em 1995 • In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um bilhão em 2010 • This posses major environmental problems/ Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M mortes/ano de acordo com a OMS

8. Os 4 desafios principais • The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos combustíveis • Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner fuels (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de usar combustíveis mais limpos • At the moment there is not a clear winner/ • Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível? • Which criteria to select them? Que critério? • Most promising –ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor • Hydrogen, fuel cells… longer term alternatives

9. O DESAFIOS... • The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia • The IC engine has dominated the transportation systems/ Domínio do motor CI • Urgent need to developed a more environmentally friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade de desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger melhor o meio ambiente • IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas • Promising innovation is the flex-fuel • New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require considerable RD&D/ Novos sistemas de propulsão vão demorar ainda muitos anos

10. OS DESAFIOS… • Environ. & Health Challenge/ Os desafios ambientais e de saúde • Transport is responsible c30% CO2 • Stringent environmental legislation/Maior controle ambiental • Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais: • Menos carros • Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência • Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic (fossil or biomass based) • Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes

11. OS DESAFIOS…. • Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio das estruturas • Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require expensive infrastructure • Others (ethanol, biodiesel) don’t and this is a major advantage • Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio) necessitam de estruturas muito caras

12. SCENARIOS • Development of RE will affect new RTFs • O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado ao desenv. das ER • RE can make a major contribution • EREC scenarios* • Robust support RE = 50% energy (2040) • Significant support = 25% • (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and not in conventional energy- ela só considera os desenvolvimentos tecnológicos) *Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis

13. Scenarios

14. Scenario, Cont..

15. Scenarios • RE provides (exclud trad biomass & hydro) 100 GW of grid connected electric • Cumulative investment/ Inversões (1995-2003)= $85 B • Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003); 0.5% world electricity; 2008 = 95GW • Germany = 14.6 GW (2003) • Spain = 6.4 GW • USA = 6.34 GW

16. Scenarios Transporte • Global estimates not quantified/O potencial mundial não foi quantificado • Studies focussed on tech rather than economics or social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica • Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes it difficult to determine the most effective use • Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor uso energético • Lack of an international market/ Falta de um cartel internacional

17. Scenarios Transporte.. • Advanced Conversion tech • Key R&DD areas/ Áreas princípais de P&D • Conversion of cellulose to sugars • Biomass conversion via gasification & thermal chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química converção • (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be obtained from resulting gases) • Pyrolysis to produce “bio-crude/bio-oleo”

18. Possible Fuel Chains

19. Scenarios Transporte… • Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80 BL gasoline equiv) or 6% of world gasoline (2020) • Other = 10% and 3% of diesel (ethanol from cane) • 33-35% of gasoline (2050-2100) • Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres • Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países indústriais

20. COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS • Gasoline & reformulated gasoline from crude oil • Diesel oil & reformulated diesel from crude oil • Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas and biomass) • Natural gas

21. Combustíveis, cont.. • Methanol from natural gas, coal, or cellulose material • Ethanol from sugars/starches and cellulose • Biodiesel from oil-containing plants • Hydrogen by electrolysis of water • Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas Fuel cells (electric engines)

22. Production of Biomass Derived End-Fuels (Transport) • Biodiesel • Ethanol • Hydrogen • Bio-oil • Bio-gas • Methanol • DME • Electricity

23. Combustíveis, cont… • ETBE based on bioethanol • Biogas • Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo

24. Combustíveis, cont.. • The biofuels considered in the EU are: • Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola, sunflower/girassol, etc) • Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc) • ETBE (based on bioethanol) • Biogas • Biomethanol (based on biomass or biodegradable waste) • Biodimethylether (based on biomass or biodegradable waste)

25. Combustiveis, cont… • Gasoline/diesel- reformulated • R&D on these fuels is gathering pace/ Incremento rápido em P&D • These fuels quality is improving and will develop, eventually, into even higher and cleaner fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos combustíveis (gasolina e diesel) • They would be able to compete with biofuels on an environmental basis

26. Combustiveis, cont… • Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos • Synthetic fuels will become increasingly important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior importância no futuro • South Africa has been producing them for many years (oil, coal and natural gas) • 40% of total supply • New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia • This has implications for biofuels

27. Combustíveis, cont… • Ethanol (bio) 2003 • World 38+ Bl (13 countries/países) • Brazil 14.2 BL • USA 10.6 BL (circa) • EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE+ Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool) • Others, c.2 BL • (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc) • 35 countries interested

28. Combustíveis, cont… • Ethanol, cont. • World/Mundo =60-70 BL in 2012; 120 BL in 2020 (c.10% transport fuels) • Brazil 22 BL in 2012 • USA 20 BL (2012) • EU 8-10 BL (2010) • Canada 1.33 BL 2010) • China 10 BL (2010?) • India 1.5 BL • LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL; Colombia, 1 BL..)

29. Combustíveis, cont… • Methanol • Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível • Produced mostly from natural gas • Used as a building block for many applications • Production 47.3 BL (2000) • It is suitable for gas turbines and IC • Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor para uso em células combustíveis • Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org

30. Bio-methanol Feedstocks Conversion Technology Gasification and syngas reformulation • Crops (Lignocellulosic) • Short Rotation Coppice • Long Rotation Forestry • Residues: • - Forestry • - Agricultural • End-Fuel • Raw bio-oil • Stabilised bio-oil • Upgraded bio-oil • Pilot Demonstration: • Oil stabilisation and use • Novel: • Catalytic upgrading of oil • New reactors and continued development of existing reactors • Other • Waste oils & fats? Electricity Production Via turbine (steam and / or ‘gas’) Fuel Cell • Hydrogen • Battery powered vehicles and electric trains End Use Vehicle IC Engine

31. Combustíveis, cont… • Biodiesel • Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento rápido nos anos recentes • EU = c2.5 BL (Germany= 1.3 BL) • Can be obtained from many sources • Many countries are considering biodiesel • Brazil can be a world leader • Programa de biodiesel

32. Combustíveis, cont… • Bio-crude/bio-oleo • Many potential applications/ Grande potencial • Niche applications/Aplicações especiais • Unlikely use in transportation in large scale/Uso em pequena escala

33. Combustíveis, cont… • Biogas • Large experience in non-transport applications • Used in niche markets (urban transport) • Many experiments • Can use same infrastructure than natural gas • Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N • Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena escala • Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico

34. Combustíveis, cont… • Gás natural • Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells • Clean fuel; increasing use • About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004) (CNG and LNG) • 130,000 in the USA (Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)

35. Combustíveis, cont… • Dimethyl ether (DME) • Advantage: can be made from any carbonaceous feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass) using established technologies/DME pode-se conseguir do gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa.. com tecnologias existentes • Current global production= 150,000 t/y + 1.8 Mt under construction • Major interests: • Russia- from N gas in Siberia • China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport) • Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP);

36. DME (Dimethyl Ether) Conversion Technology Advanced Gasification and syngas reformulation Feedstocks • Crops (Lignocellulosic) • Short Rotation Coppice • Long Rotation Forestry • Residues: • - Forestry • - Agricultural • End-Fuel • DME as diesel extender / modifier • Novel: • Still in R&D stage • Other • Wastes (MSW) Vehicle Internal Combustion Engine End Use

37. Combustíveis, cont… • Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) • Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and petroleum derivatives to produce a clean-burning fuel additive/Produzido a partir da reação de etanol com o GS, e outros derivados do petróleo para a produção de um aditivo limpo • ETBE is approx. 42% ethanol • ETBE is favoured in the EU • MTBE is facing difficulties

38. Combustíveis, cont… • Hydrogen • Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais promissor para células combustíveis • Hydrogen from ethanol • Many problems • Infrastructure • 20 years away in large scale

39. Hydrogen Conversion Technology Gasification and syngas reformulation Electrolysis Feedstocks • Crops (Lignocellulosic) • Short Rotation Coppice • Long Rotation Forestry • Residues: • - Forestry • - Agricultural • End-Fuel • Hydrogen • Pilot Demonstration: • Fuel Cell Vehicles • CHP systems • Novel: • Infrastructure development • ?? • Other • Renewable Electricity • Wastes (MSW) Electricity Production Via turbine (steam and / or ‘gas’) Fuel Cell • Hydrogen • Battery powered vehicles and electric trains End Use Vehicle Fuel Cell

40. Main References • www.erec-renewables.org • www.biodiesel.at • www.methanol.org • www.economist.com/surveys/ • Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC, Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004 • Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3, Int. Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4 • Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An International Perspective, IEA • Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrow’s World, REW 7:4: 238-245

41. Finalmente… • Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no setor do transporte. • Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários e muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e ambientais… • No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos, mas o petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias décadas • MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!