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NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects

NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects. Dr Paul Cornish. Old NATO 1949 -1989. Cold War Politico- Military Alliance Threat Article 5 Territorial Defence US Role US-European Strategic Relationship. Confused NATO 1989 -1999. Threat? Purpose? Scope? Politico -Military Alliance

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NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects

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  1. NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects Dr Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

  2. Old NATO1949 -1989 • Cold War • Politico-Military Alliance • Threat • Article 5 • Territorial Defence • US Role • US-European Strategic Relationship Paul Cornish

  3. Confused NATO1989 -1999 • Threat? • Purpose? • Scope? • Politico-Military Alliance • New Strategic Concept • Enlargement and Open Door • US Leadership • NATO/EU Relations Paul Cornish

  4. New NATO?1999 - Present • Security Provider • Multiple Threats • NATO Capabilities • Military Transformation • Budget Driven • NATO/EU Relationship: ‘Berlin Plus’ • Enlargement and Outreach Paul Cornish

  5. NATO Enlargement and Outreach NATO (26) Canada United States OSCE (55) Albania Andorra Armenia Azerbaijan Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia FRY [Serbia-Mont.] FYROM Georgia Liechtenstein Moldova Russia San Marino Switzerland Ukraine Bulgaria Iceland Norway Romania Turkey COUNCIL OF EUROPE (45) Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Rep. Slovenia EU (25) Belgium France Germany Greece Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Spain UK WEU (10) Belarus Holy See Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep. Monaco Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Austria,Cyprus,Finland, Ireland, Malta,Sweden NATO Mediterranean Dialogue (7) Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia Paul Cornish

  6. NATOThreats, Drivers and Shocks • Threats: Terrorism, WMD, ‘Rogue States’ etc. • Drivers of the Global Strategic Environment • Globalisation • Asymmetric Warfare • Demographic and Environmental Changes • Failing States • Radical Ideologies • Unresolved Conflicts • Shocks to NATO: 15 Years • Global Response Paul Cornish

  7. NATOInitiatives and Concepts Initiatives: • Allied Command Transformation • NATO Response Force • Military Concept for Defence Against Terrorism • Civil Emergency Planning Action Plan • Deployable NBC Analytical Laboratory • NBC Event Response Team • NBW Weapons Defence Centre • NATO BW/CW Defence Stockpile • Disease Surveillance System Paul Cornish

  8. NATOInitiatives and Concepts Concepts: • Holistic Security: • Political/Military/Civil/Economic • Multidimensional Security: • Conflict Prevention • Crisis & Consequence Management • Peacekeeping • Support to Peacemaking • Disaster Response • Humanitarian Assistance • Post-combat and Post-conflict Capability Paul Cornish

  9. NATOThe Transformation Agenda • Intelligence • Accountability • Public Support • Agility • Interoperability • Adaptable Force Structures • Integrated Logistics • Suitable for Networked Environment Paul Cornish

  10. NATOCommand and Control • Leaner Structure: • Operations Command • Transformation Command • Interoperability: • Liaison – Deconfliction – Integration • New Technologies and Concepts • Effects-based Approach Paul Cornish

  11. NATOThe Effects-Based Approach An effects-based approach involves the comprehensive integrated application of all instruments of Alliance power, both military and non-military, to create campaign effects which will achieve desired outcomes. This approach can be adopted at all levels of command and across the spectrum of conflict. NATO’s Strategic Commanders Strategic Vision: The Military Challenge 2004 (Draft) Paul Cornish

  12. NATOCapability Programmes, Goals and Requirements • Programmes: DCI – PCC • Goals: • Decision Superiority • Coherent Effects • Joint Deployment and Sustainment • Requirements: • Improved Intelligence and Information-Sharing • Network-Enabled Capability • Robust and Flexible CIS Foundation • More Deployable and Adaptable Forces • Improved Co-ordination and Co-operation • Improved Post-Conflict Operations • Interoperable Logistics Systems Paul Cornish

  13. Threat Article 5/Territorial Defence Transformation US Leadership NATO/EU Relations Franco/US Relations Russia New Strategic Concept? NATO = 26 Nations Outreach National Caveats Ends and Means European Defence Spending NATOProblems and Prospects Paul Cornish

  14. NATO Europe and US Defence Expenditure, and Defence Expenditure as % GDP (US $m constant 2000) Paul Cornish

  15. Three Options • NATO Revived • NATO-EU Transfer • New Transatlantic Treaty Paul Cornish

  16. NATO’s Future Role: Problems and Prospects Dr Paul Cornish Paul Cornish

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