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DATA PRESENTATION AND SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT - SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS -

Review of comments on terminology, growth rates, and seasonal adjustment in short-term economic statistics. Consensus and disagreements highlighted, with recommendations for harmonization.

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DATA PRESENTATION AND SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT - SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS -

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  1. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC STATISTICS EXPERT GROUP (STESEG) 28 – 30 JUNE 2004 DATA PRESENTATION AND SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT - SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS -

  2. SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS • This is just a brief overview of comments. More in-depth discussion to be given in other presentations for this session: • Recommendation on terminology – Denis Ward (OECD) • Recommendations on growth rates – Robert Kirchner (Bundesbank) • Recommendations on seasonal adjustment –Bernard Lefrancois (Statistics Canada)

  3. SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS • Written comments on data presentation and seasonal adjustment received from 21 organisations – some very detailed • Comments focused on: • terminology • presentation of growth rates • presentation of seasonally adjusted data • Feedback on these three issues linked and also to be covered in the Manual

  4. SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS • There is general agreement on many of the recommendations, further elaboration on some and disagreement on relatively few (though key) recommendations

  5. TERMINOLOGY • Almost all agree on the central role of terminology and the need to provide clear standards for key data presentation concepts • Some commented on the need to include clear definitions of concepts, especially growth rates in publications to inform users • Some of the suggested definitions required rewording to make them clearer • Where necessary insertion of formulae required to make them completely unambiguous • Need also to publish guidelines in French to facilitate comparisons with current national practice / usage

  6. GROWTH RATES • There was considerable discussion on the three task force recommendations on growth rates • There was overall consensus to harmonise text and recommendations on growth rates with those on seasonal adjustment to remove inconsistencies in terminology and substance • Some countries suggested merging of the two papers in the Manual

  7. GROWTH RATES

  8. GROWTH RATES Main issues – underlying themes • For news releases what is general public interested in – SA data; trend cycle and irregular movements? • Does SA data reveal cyclical movements at turning points sooner than raw series or trend-cycle estimates? • What are merits of YoY based on SA v. raw or only TDA data? • What are the problems of using annualised growth rates – arising from seasonal patterns, trading day effects, irregular movements?

  9. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT • There is considerable variation in national practices in the presentation of seasonally adjusted data (none/some/all) • Some national agencies trying to work out corporate practices for SA, incl. rules for adjustment, length of time series, use of direct / indirect method • One country emphasises trend-cycle data in key indicator publications – others currently evaluating use of T-C • Most seemed to feel need for articulation of a set of presentation standards • Though one country felt that this was perhaps premature given the current evolution of SA models and software

  10. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT • Not all countries commented on each of the 12 recommendations individually • There was general support for most of the recommendations proposed by the task force • Though both the text and some recommendations require modification and / or elaboration + fix on editorial errors (Rs 7, 8, 12) • Several countries commented on inconsistencies, especially with recommendations / text on growth rates

  11. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT Underlying issues / themes • Need for expression advising users that a series has been adjusted for calendar effects • Which series should be given emphasis – raw, TDA, SA, trend-cycle? One or several? • Should sub-annual SA levels be annualised? • What alternative presentation would satisfy user needs for a rate on an annual basis?

  12. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT Underlying issues / themes (cont.) • What type of annualised transformation of SA series in press release – period-to-period change; period-to-period growth rates; year-over-year growth rates; year-to-date totals? • What metadata should be given out to general public and informed users to explain meaning of seasonal adjustment? • How to measure validity of a seasonal adjustment measure? Reinvent wheel – pick up on work of other organisations, e.g. Eurostat.

  13. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT Other issues • Some countries mentioned other issues they would like to see covered in future, e.g. recommendations on: • Use of direct / indirect method of compilation • Role of trend-cycle estimates to identify underlying movement in time series – pros and cons

  14. MANUAL • Almost all agencies supported the preparation of the proposed Manual • Saw need for harmonisation of contents of data descriptions as a prerequisite for data comparability. • Particular support for glossary of key terms & recommendations on metadata • Main proviso that OECD co-ordinates contents with related work by Eurostat to ensure consistency – especially on seasonal adjustment • [Need to identify specific interfaces with Eurostat]

  15. MANUAL Suggested changes • Need a summary of recommendations with glossary of terms with links to further details • Over elaboration on technical issues in some parts (e.g. 5.6.2) which may confuse and make users lose sight of key recommendations • Could use links to more detail on technical detail • Sections on growth rates and SA should be combined • Translation into other languages – e.g. French (UN?)

  16. MANUAL Suggested changes (cont.) • Need to have stronger emphasis on presentation issues? • More weight should be given to the needs of data users in the establishment of presentation standards? • Corrections to text (e.g. stock/flow series definition) • Inconsistent terminology (e.g. for working day effect, calendar effect, etc).

  17. MANUAL Additional issues • Are some suggestions for additional issues to be incorporated. • Linkage practices to maximise length of time series • Recommendations on need to have past data (100 years?) available in electronic format – sometimes electronic data only available for recent years

  18. SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS Future work – Eurostat context Draft Manual already incorporates material from: • STS / Structural Business Statistics Regulations • Manuals on STS and SBS • Eurostat publication “manual” – quite small • Standard quality reports • Work of seasonal adjustment and metadata groups on CIRCA • Other relevant sources will be discussed with Eurostat - suggestions?

  19. SUMMARY OF WRITTEN COMMENTS Future work Data and Metadata Reporting and Presentation Manual Terminology Growth rates Seasonal adjustment

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