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Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons. Six Party Talks simulation briefing. Nuclear Proliferation. Spread of nuclear weapons to new countries Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Rules on who can have nuclear weapons International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitored Mixed record.

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Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons

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  1. Dealing with North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Six Party Talks simulation briefing

  2. Nuclear Proliferation • Spread of nuclear weapons to new countries • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) • Rules on who can have nuclear weapons • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitored • Mixed record

  3. The Central Issue • North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons program • Plutonium Program • Estimated to have enough material for 3-15 bombs • Test proves weaponization • How much do they have? • Existing Reactors actively producing more fissile material • Highly Enriched Uranium Program • Secret program disclosed in 2002

  4. Central Issue • North Korea has other threatening programs as well • ICBMs • 1,000,000+ man army • Artillery surrounds Seoul • Chemical and Biological Weapons • Counterfeit currency • Smuggling • Willing to sell?

  5. Central Issue • North Korea is very poor and in desperate need of assistance

  6. History • 1994 Crisis • DPRK leaves NPT, kicks out IAEA inspectors • De-fuels Yongboyng reactor • US engages in bi-lateral negotiations • War Scare, Jimmy Carter intervenes • Agreed Framework • DPRK trades nuclear program for economic and energy assistance • Sequential deal • KEDO • Multi-national group to build 2 LWR in North • Japan, South Korea pay most of the bill

  7. History • Sunshine Policy • South engages North • 1998 Missile Test • Failed deal in 2000 • Albright visits, no deal reached • 2002 Kelly Mission • US outs HEU program • NK claims to have a bomb • Axis of Evil Speech • Move to Six Party Talks

  8. Parties • North Korea • South Korea • China • Japan • Russia • USA

  9. Six Party Talks • First 3 rounds end with no progress • 2005: Round 4 of talks • Supposed agreement to trade nuclear reactors for security agreements and assistance • Deal falls apart days after its announced • July 2006: North Korea tests Taepodong-2 and several short-range missiles

  10. Nuclear Test • October 2006: North Korea conducts a nuclear test • 8th declared nuclear power • Outrage from international community • Policy Challenges • Non-proliferation to counter-proliferation • Conventional deterrence to nuclear deterrence

  11. Questionable Assumptions • The North’s Pending Economic Collapse? • Things keep getting worse but the regime is still in power • The North’s (and Kim Jong Il’s) Rationality? • Rational or irrational actors? • Nuclear issue at the top of the agenda? • Missiles, HR, conventional arms, abducted citizens, humanitarian crisis • Multilateral or Bilateral? • Who can actually cut a deal? • Who actually has influence and is willing to use it?

  12. The Road Ahead • Limited leverage • High cost of conflict • Status of February 2007 agreement? • Can we live with a Nuclear North Korea? • What price are you willing to pay for counter-proliferation? • What signal does this send to other nuclear-aspiring nations?

  13. Your Goal • Simulation of the Six Party Talks • Country Teams • Assigned Monday, work together in class next week • Opening Session Monday 6 August • PowerPoint Presentations to the group • Negotiations Friday 10 August • Time to arrange meetings and craft an agreement • http://nw08.american.edu/~phoward/sixpartytalks.htm

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