Integrated Approach for Sustainable Urban Development

1. - Adjunct Professor John Stanley Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies The University of Sydney Business School October 2018

2. Increase economic productivity Reduce environmental footprint Increase social inclusion and reduce inequality Improve health and safety outcomes Promote intergenerational equity Engage communities widely Take an integrated approach to the above goals OUTCOME GOALS 1-5 ARE HELPED BY GETTING PEOPLE OUT OF CARS AND IN TO PUBLIC AND ACTIVE TRANSPORT Common goals for cities and regions

3. The growing productivity gap: 1992-2012 (NIEIR). The foundation for Plan Melbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters Productivity versus travel time to CBD (Melbourne 2012)

4. Promoting productivity + sharing the benefits = efficiency plus equity • PlanMelbourne’s National Employment and Innovation Clusters are the key • NEICs are a way to promote urban productivity growth • Great accessibility of the clusters, including to/from growth areas, is vital • The NEICs, and middle suburbs, need more planning/budget focus

5. Preferred land use development direction = compact polycentric plus corridors plus neighbourhoods • Strong CBD and close surrounds • Small number of high tech/knowledge-based clusters (NEICs in PlanMelbourne 2017-50) • Major urban renewal areas • Strategic transit corridors (should be in Plan Melbourne) • Series of 20 minute neighbourhoods • Slower Melbourne fringe growth (70+% infill – population not houses) • Higher fringe densities • Regional model similar Bo01, Malmö, Sweden. Overall density ~40 dw/Ha.

6. Population growth pressures: Components of Victorian population growth, 1990-2016 (quarterly data)(Source: ABS 2017, Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat. 3101.0) Big jump in OS migration

7. Melbourne’s population: growing very quickly but away from its jobs (Source: Author, from ABS census data)

8. Do residents of the faster growing outer LGAs reap income benefits? (Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham - Source: NIEIR)

9. Capital requirement to remove the productivity gap for 6 fast growing outer municipalities (Source: NIEIR) • Cardinia, Casey, Hume, Melton, Whittlesea and Wyndham accounted for 47% of Melbourne’s population growth 2011-16 • How much extra capital would have been needed for these LGAs to increase Gross Product/Working Age population at the state average rate from 1992 to 2017? • Four core drivers, or ‘pillars’, of regional growth (NIEIR SOR) • Non-dwelling capital stock; knowledge creation capacity; supply chain strength; and skill employed • Estimated capital requirement is over $125b for the backlog accumulated over 25 years and an additional$140b by 2031 under business-as-usual • Citywide, overcoming increased traffic congestion adds an estimated $160b • Adding these up and allowing for a bit of overlap suggests around $375b additional investment will be required over 2017-2031 (>half gov’t responsibility) • This represents underinvestment in: • Transport infrastructure capital stock; Commercial capital stock; Community capital stock (e.g. hospitals and schools); Industrial development; Skills development and; Knowledge creation investment.

10. Regional Victoria has the opportunity to take a greater population share but must tackle its productivity challenge • This capital funding task is beyond current funding horizons • Slowing the rate of population growth seems part of the solution • Can regional Victoria play a bigger role in catering for population growth? • Without transplanted sprawl • A major productivity challenge needs to be overcome NIEIR analysis

11. Directions for local government? • Local government needs a view about a sustainable rate of population growth for Melbourne, regional Victoria and Australia • Based on conversations with its communities that lead to a settlement strategy • In my view, the right outcome will include a slower rate of Victorian/Melbourne population growth than at present, meaning a lower net OS migration rate, and a faster rate of population increase in regional Victoria • Melbourne’s middle suburbs need to cater for a much bigger share of population growth • Mainly along strategic transit corridors (circumferential rail?) • 20 minute neighbourhoods must be a key planning focus • Investment spending on Melbourne’s fringe needs to be boosted substantially, its population growth rate slowed substantially (3% p.a. max?) and densities increased • To a minimum of ~25 dw/Ha, as Toronto is adopting for greenfield (20 minute neighbourhood base) • The little stuff (e.g., place making) is just as as important asthe big stuff • For Regional Victoria to play a greater role • The regional productivity challenge must be overcome • Needs a targeted approach (based on competitive advantage and much better PT accessibility) • Focus on better life chances for children and youth life in the regions • If local government showed a leadership role here, it would help make the case that it should partner with the state in strategic LUT planning for Melbourne and Victoria more broadly