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Populist Attitudes and Left- and Right-Wing Voting in German 2017 Election

This study explores populist attitudes and their impact on left- and right-wing voting in the German 2017 federal election. Preliminary results suggest a correlation between anger towards Angela Merkel, perceptions of differences between parties, and the influence of media sources.

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Populist Attitudes and Left- and Right-Wing Voting in German 2017 Election

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  1. Populist attitudes and left- and right-wing voting.First results from the German 2017 federal election • Sigrid Roßteutscher & Lars C. Stövsand • Goethe-University Frankfurt/Main International Workshop on Populism and Political Behaviour Università die Siena November 13/14th, 2017

  2. Content: • On Populism? • Preliminaryresults: Online-Tracking (10 dayspre-election) • Roleofthe Media? • Verypreliminaryresults: pre-electioncross-section (8 weekspre-election • Tentative conclusions

  3. 1. On Populism • On populism: • See Kriesi • „WE“ • Anti-Establishment • Germany: • New

  4. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking • Operationalization: • Anger Merkel • Ifyouthinkabout Angela Merkel oraboutwhatshehasdone, howangry/fouriousareyou? • (Wenn Sie an Angela Merkel denken oder das, was sie getan hat, wie wütend sind Sie dann?) • 1 „not at all angry, 7 „veryangry“ • 2. Differencewhogoverns • Somepeoplesay, thatitmakes a bigdifferencewhogoverns in Berlin. Otherssay, itdoes not make a difference. What do youthink? • (Einige Leute meinen, dass es einen großen Unterschied macht, wer in Berlin an der Regierung ist. Andere meinen, dass es keinen Unterschied macht. Wie ist das bei Ihnen? • Differencebetweenparties • Andhowisthat in thepresentpoliticaldiscussion, howbigarethedifferencesbetweentheparties? • (Und wie ist das in der aktuellen politischen Diskussion, wie groß sind da die Unterschiede zwischen den Parteien?) • 2 and 3: 1 „nodifferenceat all“, 5 „verybigdifference • Want OnlyVotes • Partiesareonlyinterested in thevote, they do not careabouttheopinionsofthevoters. • („Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.) • 1 fullydisagree, 5 fulllyagree

  5. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking • Operationalization: • All standardized:0 to 1. • Populism-scale 0- 4 Note: Percentage with extreme values, highest and second highest. Populism: Higher than 2.5 on a scale from 0-4.

  6. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Logitistic Regression Results: Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

  7. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Logitistic Regression Results – Populism Index: Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

  8. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Visualization – Anger Merkel CDU/CSU

  9. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking LeftpartyRightparty

  10. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Visualization – Populismscale CDU/CSU

  11. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking LeftpartyRightparty

  12. 3. Role of the Media –Sources of Populism Note: 1Most important source: omitted: TV; 2 Intensity of media consumption; 3 range of different types of media consumed; 4 only significant effects out of 22 possible media sources

  13. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election • Operationalization: • Populisms-Items (CSES) • A. Whattheycallcompromise in politics, is in realityonly a betrayalofprinciples. • (Was in der Politik Kompromiss genannt wird, ist in Wirklichkeit nur ein Verrat von Prinzipien.) • B. The peopleand not thepoliticiansshouldmakethemostimportantdecisions. • (Das Volk, und nicht die Politiker, sollte die wichtigsten politischen Entscheidungen treffen.) • C. The membersofthe German parliament must obeythe will ofthepeople. • (Die Abgeordneten des Deutschen Bundestags müssen dem Willen des Volkes Folge leisten.) • D. The politicaldifferencesbetweenelitesandthepeoplearebiggerthanwithinthepeople. • (Die politischen Unterschiede zwischen Eliten und dem Volk sind größer als die Unterschiede innerhalb des Volkes). • E. A citizenwouldrepresentmyinterestsbetterthan a professional politician. • (Ein Bürger würde besser meine Interessen vertreten als ein Berufspolitiker) • F. Politicians talk toomuchand do toolittle. • (Die Politiker reden zu viel und machen zu wenig.) • 2. Want OnlyVotes • Partiesareonlyinterested in thevote, they do not careabouttheopinionsofthevoters • (Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.) • Media • The German mediadiscussesimportantthemesone-sidedly/biased. • (In Deutschland werden wichtige politische Themen in den Medien einseitig diskutiert.) • 1 fullydisagree, 5 fulllyagree

  14. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election • Operationalization: • 4. Euroscepticism • A. Germany shouldsupport EU memberstateswith large economicandfinancialproblems. • (Deutschland sollte EU-Mitgliedsstaaten, die starke wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Schwierigkeiten haben, finanziell unterstützen.) • B. European integrationshouldbepushedfurther. • (Die europäische Einigung sollte weiter vorangetrieben werden.) • 1 fullydisagree, 5 fulllyagree (re-coded)

  15. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election PopulismandEuroscepticism in the German electorate (in percent)

  16. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election PopulismandEuroscepticism: German parties (meanvalues)

  17. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Logistic Regression results (Odds Ratios):

  18. 5. Tentative conclusions • Thereisleft- AND right-wingpopulism in present-day Germany • Noimpactofpoliticalideology on populistattitudes • But: - farmoreconsequential on theright • - right: populism & euroscepticism, left: onlypopulism • - non-voters: potential reservoirfor (right-wing) populistparties • Single strongesteffect: hatred/fury /angerwithChancellor Merkel • Ifno: Votefor Christian Democratsandother „established“ parties (in particular, Liberalsand Greens) • Ifyes: voteforpopulistparties, in particularright-wing • Open question • is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestationfor all „ills“ ofthe „system“ (establishment, migrationpolicy etc.) • howmuchwouldpopulismexplain after controllingfor anti-immigrantsentments? • in a post-Merkel world?

  19. 5. Tentative conclusions • Thereisleft- AND right-wingpopulism in present-day Germany • Noimpactofpoliticalideology on populistattitudes • But: - farmoreconsequential on theright • - right: populism & euroscepticism, left: onlypopulism • - non-voters: potential reservoirfor (right-wing) populistparties • Single strongesteffect: hatred/fury /angerwithChancellor Merkel • Ifno: Votefor Christian Democratsandother „established“ parties (in particular, Liberalsand Greens) • Ifyes: voteforpopulistparties, in particularright-wing • Open question • is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestationfor all „ills“ ofthe „system“ (establishment, migrationpolicy etc.) • howmuchwouldpopulismexplain after controllingfor anti-immigrantsentments? • in a post-Merkel world? THANK YOU !

  20. Populism - SPD

  21. Populism – Liberals and Green

  22. Merkel Anger - SPD

  23. Merkel Anger – Liberals and Green

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