Session 4.3 . Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

1. Session 4.3. Forecast Analysis & Scenario Development

2. Learning Objectives • After this session, participants should be able to: • Explain the importance and value of identifying the opportunities & threats (shocks) likely to affect food & nutrition security • List and apply four key elements – i.e. frequency, probability of occurrence, expected timing of occurrence, and severity or benefit scale - to analyse opportunities & shocks

3. Where are we?

4. Forecasting • is, by definition, uncertain • requires assumptions – and good judgment

5. Forecasting process • Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security • Develop scenario(s) describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance • Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario

6. Identify opportunities & shocks likely to affect food & nutrition security 1

7. Opportunities: Events that will likely improve the situation Can be natural or man-made Shocks: Events with likely negative impact Can be natural or man-made

8. Examples: opportunities and shocks Some examples of opportunities and shocks in countries of participants?

9. Analyzing opportunities & shocks: 4 elements Recurrent? Persistent? Occasional? Low? Average? High? Reasonably predictable? unpredictable? Low? Average? High?

10. Need to disaggregate Opportunities / shocks affect different groups differently Disaggregation by sex, age, health status, ethnicity or other relevant characteristic

11. Exercise 4.3.a. Analysing Opportunities & Shocks Identify an opportunity or crisis that could affect your country: Analyze by: • Frequency (recurrent? persistent? occasional?) • Probability of occurrence (low-average-high?) • Expected time of occurrence (predictable or not?) • Severity of impact on food and nutrition security (low-average-high?)

12. Develop scenarios describing how situation could evolve in absence of assistance 2

13. Note on scenarios What is a scenario? • A description of the situation that could occur if certain things happen • It documents assumptions on how the situation might evolve Why elaborate scenarios? To predict evolution of food & nutrition security situation and orient response options analysis

14. Which scenarios? How many? Consider: • Opportunities and shocks: dominant and secondary events • How will these affect food security, lives and livelihoods? • Most likely scenario and worst case scenario

15. Identify groups most likely to be impacted in most likely scenario 3

16. Scenarios & affected groups • Take “most likely” scenario; relate it to current situation • Determine if situation of food insecure – of at risk groups – will change in this scenario (improve or deteriorate) • Identify food secure and not-at-risk groups whose situation is expected to deteriorate in the most likely scenario

17. Estimate numbers of food insecure in the most likely scenario Begin with: • Number of HHs currently food insecure and whose lives and livelihoods are at risk Add (+): • Number of HHs who will become food insecure and at greater risk Deduct (-): • Number of HHs who are currently food insecure and whose lives and livelihoods are at risk whose situation is expected to improve

18. Exercise 4.3.b. Developing Scenarios • Each Working Group: consider the opportunities & shocks for your case • 1 hour + 1 hour discussion