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Energy Research and Policy

Energy Research and Policy. Ernest J. Moniz Cecil and Ida Green Professor Of Physics and Engineering Systems Co-Director, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment May 10, 2006. Perfect Storm of Energy Challenges. Energy supply and demand

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Energy Research and Policy

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  1. Energy Research and Policy Ernest J. Moniz Cecil and Ida Green Professor Of Physics and Engineering Systems Co-Director, Laboratory for Energy and the Environment May 10, 2006

  2. Perfect Storm of Energy Challenges • Energy supply and demand e.g. projected doubling of energy use and tripling of electricity use by 2050 in business as usual • Energy and security e.g. geological and geopolitical realities of oil supply • Energy and environment e.g. greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

  3. Future scenarios highly uncertain on mid-century time scale • 50-year time scale characteristic of significant change in energy infrastructure, of greenhouse gas concentrations approaching twice pre-industrial,… • Multiple uncertainties • Resource availability? -fossil fuels, land for renewables,… • Science and technology advances? -technology breakthroughs, climate change impacts • Geopolitical considerations? -Middle East, climate protocol participation,…

  4. US Energy Supply Since 1850 Source: EIA Author: Koonin

  5. Global Primary Energy Demand BAU, Ref. Gas Price, Limited Nuclear Source: EPPA

  6. Primary Energy Use Per Person

  7. Annual Per Capita Electricity Use (kWh) Source: S. Benka, Physics Today, April, 2002

  8. Energy and Security • Oil (and natural gas) adequate and reliable supply • Vulnerability of extended energy delivery systems • Nuclear weapons proliferation facilitated by • worldwide nuclear power expansion • Dislocation from environmental impacts, such • as from climate change

  9. % World Oil/Gas/Coal Reserves By Region: Geopolitical Issues In Focus 57 36 27 North America 26 36 18 7 30 Eastern Europe W. Europe 5 9 3 8 3 Asia & Oceania 8 Middle East 4 2 8 C./S. America 6 6 Africa Coal Gas Oil Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2002

  10. Oil And Energy Security • Core Issue: inelasticity of transportation fuels market, together with geographical and geophysical realities of oil • Addressing sudden disruptions • Strategic reserves • Well-functioning markets • Increasing and diversifying supplies • Enhanced production from existing fields • Arctic E&P • “Unconventional” oil (tar sands,…) • Weakening the “addiction” • Very efficient vehicles • Alternative fuels (coal, NG, biomass) • New transportation paradigm (electricity as “fuel”? H2?)

  11. Global Carbon Cycle (IPCC/EIA) All Entries in Billion Metric Tons ATMOSPHERE 750 5.5 0.5 1.6 61.3 60.0 Changing Land-Use 92 90 FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION VEGETATION & SOILS 2,190 OCEAN 40,000

  12. US Carbon Dioxide Emissions (EIA BAU)Millions of Tonnes - Carbon

  13. Climate Change Technology/Policy Pathways • Efficiency • Low carbon or “carbon-less” technologies/fuels • Fuel switching, e.g., coal to natural gas • Nuclear power (fission, possibly fusion in long term) • Renewables (wind, geothermal, solar,…) • Note: scale matters • Carbon dioxide capture and sequestration

  14. The EPPA model can be used to study how world energy markets would adapt to a carbon policy change. In the EPPA world, a significant (but not exorbitant?) CO2 tax leads to emissions stabilization by mid-century. However, the time to stabilization and the scale of emissions are quite dependent on the “tax profile.”

  15. If developing economies do not adopt a carbon charge, emissions cannot be stabilized by mid-century. • If developing economies adopt a carbon charge but lag behind developed economies in doing so, stabilization of emissions is possible, although achieved later and at a higher level. • For example, a 10 year lag increases cumulative emissions to mid-century by less than 10%.

  16. Science and Technology for a Clean Energy Future • Renewable technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, waves, biofuels) • Electrochemical energy storage and conversion • Core enabling science and technology (superconducting and • cryogenic components, nanotechnology and materials, transport • phenomena,…) • Nuclear fusion

  17. Improving Today’s Energy Systems • Advanced nuclear reactors and fuel cycles that address cost, • safety, waste, and nonproliferation objectives • Affordable supply of fossil-derived fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) from both conventional and unconventional sources and processes • Key enablers such as carbon sequestration • Thermal conversion and utilization for dramatically enhanced energy efficiency, including in industrial uses • Enhanced reliability, robustness and resiliency of energy delivery networks • System integration in energy supply, delivery, and use • Learning from the past and understanding current public attitudes towards energy systems • Understanding and facilitating the energy technology innovation process • In-depth integrative energy and technology policy studies that draw on faculty across the campus

  18. Energy Systems For a Rapidly Evolving World • Science and policy of climate change • Advanced efficient building technologies • Advanced transportation systems, from novel technologies and new fuels, to systems design including passenger and freight networks • “Giga-city” design and development, particularly in the developing world

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