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Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government: An Agenda for Research

Explore the landscape of strategic foresight in the federal government, uncovering challenges, strategies, and vital research needs for effective foresight programs.

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Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government: An Agenda for Research

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  1. Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government:An Agenda for Research US. EPA Joseph M. Greenblott, Thomas O’Farrell, Beth Burchard Institute for Alternative Futures Robert Olson

  2. Approach • Reviewed literature on strategic foresight • Conducted semi-structured interviews (in person and via telephone: • Initial convenience sample of individuals FFCOI, supplemented a snowball sample • 19 Federal agencies and 2 non-Federal experts • Up to four representatives from a range of Federal defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies • Validated with participants: • 1-3 page interview summaries • Draft Report

  3. Participants • U.S. Air Force • Bureau of Prisons • Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement • Central Intelligence Agency • U.S. Coast Guard • Department of Veterans Affairs • Environmental Protection Agency • Federal Bureau of Investigation • Federal Emergency Management Agency • U.S. Forest Service • Government Accountability Office • U.S. Marine Corps • National Aeronautics and Space Administration • National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency • National Guard Bureau • National Intelligence Council • Office of Management and Budget • Office of Net Assessment • Office of Personnel Management • The Project on Forward Engagement • IBM Center for the Business of Government

  4. Dedicated Staffing

  5. Dedicated Funding

  6. Core Group Membership

  7. Foresight Activity Participation

  8. Foresight Methods Used by Federal Agencies

  9. Forward-Looking Timeframes

  10. Broad Observations • Federal foresight activity is increasing, but not fully institutionalized. • FFCOI has been a significant factor in the growth of federal foresight. • Agencies are in very different places on a “maturity scale.” • Interviewees aspire to expand the quality and influence of foresight. • Important to look beyond conventional planning horizons. • There is no standard organizational location for a foresight function. • Scanning and scenario planning are the most widely used methodologies. • Foresight programs use different methods to connect with leadership.

  11. Challenges • Capacity and resources. • Policy makers’ short-term goals, political imperatives, pressures to crisis manage. • Position anchoring and investment, cognitive dissonance, and resistance. • Location of foresight units. • Coordination, span of control, responsibility, or authority. • Issue complexity, abrupt and discontinuous change. • Demonstrating impact.

  12. Research Needs • Policy makers’ perceptions of long-term risks and uncertainty, and the government’s role in managing to this future uncertainty. • Methodologies to assess maturity of, need for, and impact of foresight programs. • Integration of foresight into planning and management processes. • Approaches for selecting and using alternative foresight methodologies. • Executive foresight training and delivery.

  13. Correspondence and Access Dr. Joseph M. Greenblott Office of Planning, Analysis and Accountability Office of the Chief Financial Officer U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. (2722A) Washington, DC 20460 Tel: 202-564-4250 Published Paper: World Futures Review https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718814908 Accepted Manuscript (Institute for Alternative Futures website) http://altfutures.org/report/strategic-foresight-in-the-federal-government

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