Summary and Recommendations from the Joint TFEIP/TFIAM Workshop on Emission Projections

1. Summary and Recommendations from the Joint TFEIP/TFIAM Workshop on Emission Projections Marc Deslauriers, Environment Canada Thessaloniki, Greece, Oct 30-31, 2006

2. Presentation Outline • Summary of the workshop presentations • Copies of all presentation will be available on the TFEIP website • List of actions points • Recommendations to the TFEIP

3. Session 1 Scene Setting – European legislative, policy and research drivers for projections

4. Presentation From The Task Force on Integrated Assesment Modeling (TFIAM) • Provided context for use of projections in the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) and highlighted sources of data input • Reinforced the drivers for better projections • Reflected on recent member state engagement with IIASA and lessons learned

5. Presentation By The European Commission • Provided context for emission projections within the revisions of NECD including the developments since CAFE • Illustrated the NECD review baseline and highlighted that there was consistency at the EU level and linkages with other policies (air pollutants, GHG, transport policies, agriculture, etc.) • Reported from the EC conference of Sept 2006

6. Presentation From The UNFCCC • Presented on the role of projections within the UNFCCC, the experiences and lessons learned • Reflected milestones for the UNFCCC projections • Provided background on the UNFCCC Guidelines • Identified best practices • Reported back on the results of 2004 workshop on projections

7. Session 2 Tools and approaches for developing projection estimates relevant to LRTAP Convention and NEC reporting

8. Presentation On The RAINS Model • Presented an overview of the model • Multi pollutant/multi effect framework for identifying cost effectiveness of policy scenarios • Clarified input data required for projections from central and country specific sources • Identified problems and uncertainties for NECD pollutants and PM

9. Presentation On The PRIMES Model • Presented an overview of the model, which is a behavior and market equilibrilium energy model • Including input data, coverage, and engagement with member states • Database update and model development • Provides input for the energy component of RAINS in absence of country specific data

10. Presentation On The CAPRI Model • Presented an overview of the model which is a “multi-purpose” modeling system for EU’s agriculture • Clarified the input data required, scope and engagement with member states • Outlined model development • Clarification on the CAPRI baselines including policy assumptions • Outlined detailed model calculation procedures • Identified the problems

11. Session 3 Current Issues and Problems Encountered For Projections

12. Presentations By Different Countries • The UK highlighted the differences between the data used as input to TREMOVE and National measurement data for road transport emissions • TREMOVE emissions estimates were much smaller for all pollutants( especially in urban areas) compared to those estimated in the NAEI • Spain presented their comprehensive emissions projections program • Described the consistent methodology and demonstrated some of the national database tools including the development of innovative nomenclature to link with the RAINS input

13. Presentations By Different Countries • Italy presented the application of the RAINS-Italy • Identified discrepancies between RAINS-Italy and the inventory • Discussed the harmonization between RAINS-Italy and the inventory • Comparison studies of RAINS-Italy with national inventories indicated where improvements should be targeted for both • Provided a robust assessment towards NECD 2010 targets • Presentation for Canada and the United States • Identified similarity in the approach to compile the emission projections to European countries despite slight differences in data availability • Highlighted difficulties of capturing equipment turnover in projections, which is common to European countries • Presented improvements in the approach to compile the projections but recognized the difficulties of including structural measures (eg. fuel switching)

14. Session 4 Other perspectives

15. Other Perspectives On Projections • Presentation by EURELECTRIC • Explained that emission projections have inherent uncertainties and are subject to change • Demonstrated how projections and assumptions evolve across time, highlighting the importance of having adequate sensitivity analyses • Reminded us of the importance of engaging the industry associations in the development of the emission projections (technology costs)

16. Other Perspectives On Projections • Presentation on the ammonia emissions from Danish agriculture • Highlighted the need for taking a holistic approach to assessing the impact of future agriculture emissions • Reported on a project to produce ammonia projections to 2025, and demonstrated the need for excellent collaboration between different institutes to produce the most accurate projections • Presentation on the implications and importance of getting good projections for IAM • Reported back of lessons learned from MERLIN and ESPREME • Explained the limitations and roles of the top down and bottom up approaches and therefore the need for harmonizing • Highlighted the need for the quantification of uncertainties and input data (eg activity projections)

17. Other Perspectives On Projections • Presentation on the modeling perspective by Norwegian Meteorological Office • Identified the key limitations of country projections for transboundary modeling • Highlighted the need for information by NFR sectors, spatial distribution data, and seasonal variations

18. Session 5 Recent developments in projections assessment

19. Recent developments in projections assessment • Presentation on the RAINS model • Presented the extension of RAINS to include GHG emissions (becomes GAINS) and the linkages to the EDGAR database • Integration of TREMOVE and city-delta • Development of an agriculture module • Presentation on the TREMOVE model • Presented the model structure (different modules), its data needs, and upcoming developments, calibration, and stakeholder consultation • Presentation on agriculture NH3 emissions and projections from UK using the NARSES model • NARSES is a nitrogen flow model that links to other agricultural pollutants

20. Recent developments in projections assessment • Presentation on developing emissions projections at a the regional scale for Italy • Highlighted the interaction between European national and regional planning • Explained the modeling approach used and the tools developed • Presentation on the CLRTAP Projections Reporting Guidelines • Presented the proposed modifications to the new reporting requirements for projections which are now more detailed • Highlighted the need for harmonization with NEC and UNFCCC

21. Session 6 Agreeing on approaches to resolving problems

22. Action Points • Inventory Compilers (TFEIP) • Best science (differences should be explored using reporting transparency) • Guidebook • Ensure strong linkages and consistency between air quality and climate change • Engage DG TREN energy analysis group, and other experts from industry, transport and agriculture etc…….. (E.g. creation of another focal point/group in the TFEIP… TOR .. Closer links with and experience of industry developments (relating to activity and emission factors), economics, etc) • Ensuring lesson learnt from IIASA bilaterals are incorporated into improvement programmes • Co-ordination of improvements.. • Extend Expert Panels to cover projections support.

23. Action Points • Models (RAINS/GAINS, PRIMES, CAPRI, TREMOVE) • Documentation (methodology, assumptions etc.) • Peer Reviews • A suitable forum for effective stakeholder participation/interaction • Improvement programmes (e.g. Bilateral) • Countries should Internal networks, build consistency on data uses • Co-ordination of improvements… • RAINS/GAINS transition… review/comparison/validation

24. Action Points • Modellers (TFIAM) • Engage with specific groups with knowledge of projection parameters (industry development, economic, agriculture (CAP), energy) • Clear definition of scenarios • Continued input to validation of projections • Definition of “wants” rather than “needs” (e.g. Policies in place.. What, when & how much..) • Investigation of Emerging Technologies (linking to all stakeholders and done by the EP Projections) • Recognition of the importance of ex-post assessments in informing future projections • Emission targets (Fixed vs % change from base year) • Investigate possibilities for NEC & Protocol revisions??

25. Recommendations To The TFEIP • Guidebook development • Good practice in preparing Emission projections • National data sources, assessment of non technical measures, checking, transparency in reporting, dealing with different approaches. • How to apply quality principals in practice…. etc • Technology and new technology speciation/elaboration and provision of technology specific factors • Forums for communications between projections experts • International within the TFEIP • Member state at the national level

26. Recommendations To The TFEIP • Creation of an Expert Panel for projections • Single panel (with links to existing EPs, other expert groups, and stakeholders) • Co-ordination of improvements… • Assessment of strengths and weaknesses of different approaches • Web based portal to provide • Links to other expert panels, models, best practice & tools • Emissions projections forum/knowledge base • Assessment of advantages and disadvantages of using different models for different purposes