National Security Policy Survey of the Literature INTELLIGENCE

1. National Security Policy Survey of the LiteratureINTELLIGENCE Robert David Steele OSS CEO bear@oss.net Updated 19 August 2002

2. You have 150 books in the lecture handout. Will only cover 50 or so of them now. Complete text reviews for over 350 books are at OSS.Net, at Amazon, and in the red and green books Information Intelligence Emerging Threats Strategy & Structure Blowback, Dissent & International Relations US Politics, Leadership & the Future of Life Plan of the Brief

3. Relevant Readings on Intelligence

4. Fuld on Business Intelligence • Discipline of business intelligence knows more than we do about economic “open sources & methods” • They don’t understand the process of intelligence, nor are they expert at cultural intelligence

5. Klavans & Ashton on S&T • Private sector intelligence efforts are “fragmented” and in their infancy • Too few know how to find the patterns and they do not get much help from technology • We are missing the boat in terms of following foreign R&D

6. Gilad on Blindspots • All top managers tend to get information that is late, filtered, incomplete, or biased • It is possible to create a professional intelligence system in the private sector, using only open sources.

7. Australian Best Practices • Analytic tradecraft is alive and well in some sectors. • Australians have some best practices in both strategic and tactical intelligence that can improve government analysis.

8. Cleveland on Higher Education • Intelligence can be, should be, a form of “higher education” for both policy makers and the public • A comprehensive strategic view is vital, both in and out of government, and that is what should be higher about higher education.

9. Kerr on University • Per Alfred North Whitehead, any society that "does not value trained intelligence is doomed” • University should elevate lower education, rationalize IT to link business with knowledge, create distance learning, and nurture mid-career, continuing education

10. Alvarez on Spies in Vatican • Religions “do” intelligence and counterintelligence • Some do this better than others • Governments need to penetrate and understand all religions

11. Allen on Lesson of Viet-Nam • Intelligence generally got it right (strategic, tactical) • Ambassadors and Generals in Saigon cooked the books • Policymakers in DC refused to listen to intelligence inconsistent with their beliefs

12. Herrington on Traitors Among Us • Civilian “mafia” within Army often undercuts intelligence effectiveness • We do have traitors, it is very difficult to first pet them and then catch them in the act overseas • Interagency cooperation does produce results

13. Levine on DEA Failures • “Suits” assure the failure of effective street operations • Inter-agency rivalry’s do great damage • CIA creates monsters as it works fringes of drug networks • State & White House let Mexico run rampant

14. Reibling on FBI-CIA Rivalry • War between FBI and CIA goes back to Hoover era • Refusing to share information is a deeply embedded two-way street • Congress undermines counterintelligence (Barney Frank example)

15. Trulock on Failed Labs • Energy labs are giving up all our advanced nuclear and other secrets • Political interference is preventing proper counterintelligence • Our “friends” are the worst offenders

16. Baer on Clandestine Failure • We do not have a global clandestine infrastructure against terrorism • Too reliant on liaison • Don’t have the languages • Culture diluted down to office bureaucrats

17. Gertz on 9-11 Breakdown • Administrations ignored the earlier attacks • DIA: bureaucracy • CIA: politically correct • FBI: lost its way • Congress: destructive • America not serious about terrorism

18. Godson on Covert Action & CI • Covert Action and Counterintelligence are neglected elements of intelligence • Covert action offers a range of policy options • Counterintelligence is offensive defense

19. Matthias on Mind-Sets • Mind-sets are killing us--military mind-set focusing on technology; policy mind-set focusing on traditional state threat; intelligence mind-set focusing on secrecy and loyalty instead of accuracy and relevance

20. Wheaton on Warning • Warning solution includes • Casting wide early net • Surging on potential hotspots • Getting senior’s attention • Options decrease as conflict escalates--seniors need to focus on crisis prevention rather than crisis management

21. Scales on Firepower-Intelligence • Inaccurate maps mean inaccurate fire • Naval fire support a lost art--and new platforms not configured for shore fires • Firepower advantage is meaningless if intelligence cannot find and fix locations fast and correctly

22. Beesly on OpIntel “Plots” • 24/7 “plot” allows for on the fly evaluation of sources in real-time ops context • Submarine behavior can be predicted (terrorists like subs?) • Negative reports matter greatly

23. Bamford on OPSEC • Those that practice OPSEC can defeat our technical collection systems across the board • We do not practice OPSEC and our opponents know how to exploit this every single day • NSA still does not have a computer that can beat a human brain in weight, energy needs, and calculation speed

24. Berkowitz & Goodman on Truth • Non-state actors and their issues need more attention • Must focus on priorities, minimize hardware investments, draw on private sector to fullest extent possible • Must abandon bureaucratic model in favor of virtual community model

25. Johnson on New Targets • Community does not exist--only an archipelago of isolated fragments • Intelligence producers and intelligence producers have lost touch with real world open sources • 20% of the IC budget could be cut (Woolsey said this too)

26. Treverton on Public Intelligence • New intelligence paradigm must focus on filtering vast quantities of open source information, and on analysis • Spies must focus very narrowly on vital secrets • Most intelligence should be public and shared

27. Odom on Fixing Intelligence • DCI does not understand details of the various agencies • NRO can give up $6B • CIA and DIA should be eliminated (do not agree but must address his concerns)

28. Herman on War & Peace • components and boundaries, effects, accuracy, and evaluation • long-term intelligence (mostly open sources, improve state behavior) • short-term espionage (tends to be intrusive and inspire target state's hostility)

29. Herman on Information Age • "The best test of an intelligence system is the all-source memory it builds up..." • "The problems of counter-terrorist intelligence cannot be solved just by throwing money at them." • Sub-state targets, multi-lateral cooperation, open sources...

30. Steele on Redirection • Comprehensive review of shortfalls at strategic, operational, tactical, and technical levels • Identifies $11.6 billion a year in necessary cuts • Would restore that money for new initiatives--change will not happen without hit

31. Steele on New Craft • Reality requires public appreciation if public action is to be correct • Public must demand intelligence and be able to create its own intelligence • Most intelligence can be done with open sources & methods

32. Peacekeeping Intelligence • Can’t do peacekeeping without intelligence • UN continues to be against intelligence • There are success stories, and obstacles • US benefits if it helps UN with coalition intelligence endeavors