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Today’s Agenda

Dive into the demographic transition process to explore the stages of population growth and decline globally. Learn about historical developments and current trends in human population dynamics, including Malthusian theory, modern-day perspectives, and potential future scenarios. Join the exploration of how countries navigate declining birth rates, resource scarcity, and policies like China's one-child rule.

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Today’s Agenda

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  1. Today’s Agenda Bellwork Chapter 3, Key Issues 1 -3 Reading Quiz Categorilla – pick up in the back of the room

  2. What do you predict for the future of human population on Earth

  3. Chapter 3, k 1-3 Reading Quiz Pencil Pen 15 minutes

  4. Bellwork: 09.24.2019 • Watch the National Geographic Video and take note of 3 to 5 major changes that have developed since the 1900s to now.

  5. Population Key Issue 3

  6. The Demographic Transition • Demographic Transition – process of change in society’s population form … • High CBR, High CDR, low NIR to • Low CBR, low CDR, low NIR, and higher total population • This occurs in four stages

  7. Stage 1 • Very high birth and death rate produce virtually no long-term natural increase. • Most of human history is stage 1 • No country is currently in stage 1 because they have moved on to stage two and experienced significant population growth • Mostly hunters and gathers

  8. Stage 2 • Characterized by rapidly declining death rates and very high birth rates creating a very high NIR • Europe and North America entered Stage 2 after 1750 because of • 1. The Industrial Revolution • Stage 2 Diffused to Africa, Asia, Latin America around 1950 because of the • Medical Revolution

  9. Stage 3 • Birth rates rapidly decline, death rates continue to decline, natural increase rate begins to level off • Countries move to stage 3 when CBR begins to drop sharply, people have fewer kids because people live longer • Population still grows because CBR is higher than CDR but NIR is modest • People are more likely to lie in cities so they have less children so they don’t need as man children (like farmers do) • Europe and North America moved to stage 3 in 1st half of the 20th century • Latin America and Chile move to stage 3 during the 2nd half of the 20th century

  10. Stage 4: Low Growth • Very low birth and death rates with no long-term NIR, maybe even a decrease • Zero population Growth (ZPR) • CBR = CDR, NIR less than or equal to 0 • CBR may be slightly higher but some females die before childbearing years • TFR doesn’t change total population • TFR at 2.1 produces ZPG • Women enter the labor force • Access to wide range of birth control

  11. Which Stage is each country currently in?

  12. Declining Birth Rates • 1. lowering birth rates through education and health • 2. Lowering birth rates through contraception

  13. Malthus on Overpopulation • Thomas Malthus (1798) – stated population growth would overrun food supply. Claimed population increases geometrically, food supply increases arithmetically. • Contemporary Neo-Malthusians • Agree with Malthus but think situation is worse because of recent population growth. • Now all countries have been in stage 2, lots of growth not a lot of production • Malthus’s Critics • Consider resources expanding • Larger population stimulates ability to grow more food and jobs • Just need to share resources

  14. Malthus’s Theory and Reality • Population has grown but overall food production has also increased more rapidly • India – increased rice and wheat production faster

  15. Japan’s Declining Population

  16. Population Future • Demographic Transition Possible Stage 5: decline • Because of continued low CBR the older population begins to crease CDR • NIR actually becomes negative (CDR)

  17. China and India • The world’s two most populous countries, 1/3 of total population • India • 1947 rapid growth after independence from England • 1952 begins national family program (birth control abortions, sterilizations) • China • 1980 one child policy – prohibits marriage till in 20s, need permit to have children and hand out contraceptives, abortions, sterilizations • Law now is relaxed but still must pay to have more the one child

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