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Comparison of New Load Profile Models: 14-Month vs. 21-Month Models

This analysis compares the performance of 14-month and 21-month load profile models, uncovering minor and major differences in profile types and weather zones. The findings suggest that the scaled 14-month models are almost identical to the 21-month models, indicating that repeating the test settlement runs is unlikely to yield different results.

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Comparison of New Load Profile Models: 14-Month vs. 21-Month Models

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  1. Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month ModelsERCOT Load Profiling Staff

  2. Background Information • ERCOT staff discovered error with LRS analysis • Error was misclassification of some ESIIDs with profile type migrations occurring since the time of sample selection • Misclassification resulted in improper sample post-stratification • Models built from LRS means were incorrect • LRS analysis was corrected

  3. Background Information • New models developed • Original analysis covered 14 months (Nov ‘04 – Dec ‘05) • New analysis covered 21 months (Nov ‘04 – July ‘06) • Intent of this analysis is to examine and quantify the differences between the 14-month and 21-month models

  4. Comparison of New Load Profile Models14-Month Models vs 21-Month Models

  5. Misclassifications for BUSHILF_NCENT

  6. Strata Impacted by Misclassification for BUSHILF_NCENT

  7. PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MINOR DIFFERENCES

  8. RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  9. RESLOWR_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  10. RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  11. RESHIWR_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  12. BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  13. BUSLOLF_SCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  14. BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  15. BUSNODEM_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Minor Differences 14 Month Model 21 Month Model

  16. PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY SOME DIFFERENCES

  17. BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  18. BUSMEDLF_FWESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.4%

  19. BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  20. BUSMEDLF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.4%

  21. BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  22. BUSHILF_COASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.9%

  23. BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  24. BUSHILF_SOUTHMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.9%

  25. BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  26. BUSHILF_WESTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Some Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.6%

  27. PROFILE TYPE PEAK & AVERAGE DAY MAJOR DIFFERENCES

  28. BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  29. BUSMEDLF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.7%

  30. BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  31. BUSHILF_EASTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.1%

  32. BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY PEAK DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model

  33. BUSHILF_NCENTMONTHLY AVERAGE DAYS – ENTIRE PERIOD Major Differences 14 Month Model Scaled 14 Month 21 Month Model Scaled 14 month vs 21 month R2 = 99.7%

  34. Findings….. • 14-month and 21-month models show only minor differences in 40 of the 48 profile type / weather zone combinations • Of the 8 profile type / weather zone combinations with differences only 3 had major differences • Scaled 14-month models were virtually identical to the 21-month models… differences were mostly magnitude and not shape related • Repeating the ERCOT test settlement runs is not likely to result in different findings regarding the Option 3-M transition recommendation

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