Benjamin Schenkel (bschenkel@fsu.edu) and Robert Hart 2012 AMS Annual Meeting

1. Quantifying the Environmental Memory of Tropical Cyclones: Lingering Footprint or Climate Amnesia? Benjamin Schenkel (bschenkel@fsu.edu) and Robert Hart 2012 AMS Annual Meeting Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science The Florida State University Research Sponsored by NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship and NSF Grant #ATM–0842618

2. Introduction Methodology Results Motivation Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 2/9

3. Introduction Methodology Results Motivation • ??? • How does the poleward movement of tropical cyclones (TCs) impact the large scale circulation? Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 2/9

4. Introduction Methodology Results Questions Raised Credit: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/images/jetstream3.jpg • 51% of major TCs in the Western North Pacific recurve from the tropics into the mid-latitudes • Do TCs transport significant quantities of moisture and heat polewards? • Is the strength of the Hadley Cell substantially modulated by TCs? • Do TCs significantly modulate the strength of the jet streams? • Do the impacts of recurving TCs extend far beyond the time scales of the TC itself? • Warm/Moist • Warm/Moist • H • L • TC • TC • Cold/Dry: High Surface Pressure • Warm/Moist: Low Surface Pressure Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 3/9

5. Introduction Methodology Results Methodology • Objective: To analyze the response of the atmospheric environment to TC passage • Evaluation of mean environmental response will occur using four-dimensional storm-relative composites of raw variables, raw anomalies, and normalized anomalies for 14 days prior to 14 days after TC passage at 6 hr intervals • Reanalysis: A past model simulation that assimilates historical observations providing the most likely atmospheric state at a given time (Thorne and Vose 2010) • Composites are constructed using the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (Saha et al. 2011) for TCs in the historical record (e.g. best-track) with intensities of Saffir-Simpson category 3-5 in the Western North Pacific basin from 1982-2009 (N=257 TCs) Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 4/9

6. Introduction Methodology Results Evidence of Hadley Cell Modulation by TCs 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 5/9

7. Introduction Methodology Results Evidence of Hadley Cell Modulation by TCs • Large scale response similar to TC Dale with significant anomalies through day 11 • Statistically significant area 9000 km by 3000 km in composite domain 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage • Reduced need for the Hadley cell to do work Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 5/9

8. Introduction Methodology Results Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage • Anomalous heat and moisture of upper level anticyclone of TC pushes tropopause upwards Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 6/9

9. Introduction Methodology Results Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs • Polar Jet • Strengthening and broadening of TEJ following TC passage 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage • TEJ Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 6/9

10. Introduction Methodology Results Modulation of Upper Level Jet Stream Circulations by TCs • Polar Jet 8000 km by 2000 km response to TC passage • TEJ Large scale response of environment to TC passage similar to TC Yuri • Anomalous westerlies occur in core of polar jet • Potential strengthening or weakening of jet streams depending on how far north TC moves Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 6/9

11. Introduction Methodology Results Quantifying Poleward Energy Transport by TCs Upwards of 33% increase in peak northward energy transport due to TC at time when contribution from extratropical cyclones is relatively small Strong increase in southward transport of energy away from tropics in region with relatively marginal climatological transport Transport of energy away fromtropics and into mid-latitudes yields a reduction ofover 3% in the local meridional energy gradient for two weeks following TC passage Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 7/9

12. Introduction Methodology Results Quantifying Poleward Energy Transport by TCs • 0.1% • 2.5% • 21.7% • 75.7% Percentage of total energy anomaly Majority of anomalous meridional energy transport is sensible heat and potential energy Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 8/9

13. Introduction Methodology Results Broader Implications • Modulation of the jet streams • Warmed/ • Moistened/ • Lower Pressure • Cooled/ • Dried/ • Higher Pressure • H • L • TC • TC • H • L • Cold/Dry: High Pressure • Warm/Moist: Low Pressure • Energy Convergence • Energy Divergence How long does the aggregate impact of all TCs from one season last? Weeks? Months? Quantifying the Environmental Memory of TCs Benjamin Schenkel and Robert Hart The Florida State University 9/9