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Main Ideas

Main Ideas. How do we demonstrate that our control strategies (for SO2, smoke, etc.) provide reasonable progress given the highly influential and highly variable effects of fire? How would a “planning inventory” facilitate this demonstration? How might a planning inventory be developed?.

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Main Ideas

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  1. Main Ideas • How do we demonstrate that our control strategies (for SO2, smoke, etc.) provide reasonable progress given the highly influential and highly variable effects of fire? • How would a “planning inventory” facilitate this demonstration? • How might a planning inventory be developed?

  2. Reasonable Progress Glacier National Park

  3. Reasonable Progress

  4. Reasonable Progress Presumptive Demonstration Method

  5. Where’s the Smoke? % Contribution of OC to Bext on Worst Days 1999 2000

  6. Where’s the Smoke? % Contribution of OC to Total Light Extinction 2001 2002

  7. When’s the Smoke? (WF and Rx)

  8. When’s the Smoke?

  9. When’s the Smoke?

  10. Purpose of Planning Inventory • Provide a representative base case to gauge the effect a control strategy would normally have

  11. Option 1: The Average Year • Average tonage spread evenly across forested (or other) areas and smoothed over the applicable time period • Straight-forward approach • But avoiding extremes may have issues • Also need to avoid emitting smoke in rain

  12. Option 2: Synthetic Year(s) • Average tonnage spread randomly over forested (or other) areas and the applicable time period • Will need to constrain randomness and avoid emitting smoke in rain • Accounts for some but not all extremity • Could build multiple synthetic years with different annual totals • Further approximates reality, but would require multiple modeling simulations

  13. Option 3: Multiple Actual Years • Choose three years that provide a wide range of impacts to most Class I areas • Uses “real” data • Would require multiple modeling simulations • Could use actual met years • Would require even more work • Would address variability of other source contributions

  14. Other Issues • Which days do you select from the modeling results

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