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Historical Earthquakes: Issues and Biases

Historical Earthquakes: Issues and Biases. 1. Historic vs Instrumental Catalogs. Earthquake Intensities. ~100%g. x 10 =1000. x = 2. ~0.1%g. XI. II. Bakun Method. Biases. Intensity assignments = f(time). The Owens Valley Earthquake: Previous View. MMI V.

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Historical Earthquakes: Issues and Biases

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  1. Historical Earthquakes:Issues and Biases

  2. 1. Historic vs Instrumental Catalogs

  3. Earthquake Intensities

  4. ~100%g x10=1000 x = 2 ~0.1%g XI II Caption

  5. Bakun Method

  6. Biases • Intensity assignments = f(time)

  7. The Owens Valley Earthquake: Previous View MMI V

  8. V. Almost everyone feels movement. Sleeping people are awakened. Doors swing open or close. Dishes are broken. Pictures on the wall move. Small objects move or are turned over. Trees might shake. Liquids might spill out of containers Caption

  9. Biases • Intensity assignments = f(time) 1872 earthquake?

  10. Caption

  11. “Ground pervasively cracked,” Holden, 1887 Southern segment, Vittori et al., 2003 “4-5’ subsidence along edge of Haiwee Meadows” Whitney, 1872 Caption

  12. Magnitude • L = 100 – 135 km • z = 15 – 25 km • s = 6 +/- 2 m (Beanland & Clark) Mw1872 = 7.5 – 7.9 Caption

  13. Biases • Intensity assignments = f(time) 1872 earthquake? • Unreliable indicators: liquefaction, etc

  14. Biases • Intensity assignments = f(time) 1872 earthquake? • Unreliable indicators: liquefaction, etc • Reporting biases • Media “biases” • Higher structural vulnerability

  15. Biases • Intensity assignments = f(time) 1872 earthquake? • Unreliable indicators: liquefaction, etc • Reporting biases • Media “biases” • Higher structural vulnerability  Inflated magnitude estimates

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