S&T Foresight in Germany

1. S&T Foresight in Germany • Lessons from the 90‘s • Strategy for the future • Obstacles for policy implementation Note: the structure of the German S&T landscape is complex by law (Constitution)

2. Strategic plan/procedure „Foresight policy is more than opening the foresight toolbox“ 1. Motivation by confrontation 2. Participation in creative processes 3. Engagement in prioritising 4. Implementing results in S&T-policy 5. Continuity by success

3. S&T Policy sectors of BMBF (BMBF = Federal Ministry of Education and Research) 1. Investment for science 2. Investment for back-up technologies 3. Investment in research tools for R&D 4. Funding of research for public needs 5. Funding of research for competitiveness ...

4. S&T Policy sectors of BMBF (BMBF = Federal Ministry of Education and Research) this includes: 6. Availability of knowledge 7. Industry - science relations 8. Support/incentives for R&D in/for SME’s 9. Education, voc.training, attractive conditions for motivated people (“brain gain”) and also: 10. Priority setting within/between technologies

5. Different strategies/tools for each sector Concentrate here on 1., 3., 5., 10. “Tools” (list not complete): - Peers - Expert panels - Publication screening - Bibliometric analysis - Delphi-exercises - FUTUR

6. Investment for science/R&D-tools • Most of the large investments for science (telescopes, accelerators, supercomputers, ships, ...) have to be financed by the Federal Government. This motivates the science community to invest in advice. • Regular process once a decade • Large long-term impact on disciplines • Quality of arguments very important for acceptability of funding decisions • Shaping science budgets for many years

7. Identification of Future Technologies 1 3 German Delphi reports, last one in 1998 Confrontation with 1070 “visionary” statements in 12 fields • information and communication • services, consumer goods • management and production • chemistry and materials • health and life science • agriculture and nourishment • environment and nature • energy and resources • construction and housing • mobility and transport • space technology • large-scale experiments More than 2000 experts, no participation of broader public, but dissemination to science and industry

8. Identification of Future Technologies 2 Competition to identify new fields: “Leitprojekte” Call for ideas, e.g. “Innovative products” 1. phase: Ideas from industry and science Evaluation by a jury: ca. 15 winners of the 1. Phase 2. phase: from ideas to concrete proposals, final formation of consortium Selection of ca. 5 final winners by the jury Funding for ~ 5 years

9. Identification of Future Technologies 3 “Early warning system” within existing programms Clear user structure, clearly defined market oriented demand of industry. Need for technological developments can be identified fast. Included: other thinkable applications, leading to synergies. Mostly technology oriented. No participation of the public, not a transparent process. PR difficult, sometimes problems with acceptance. Interesting topics which don’t fit to existing specific programs will not be identified or discarded.

10. Identification of Future Technologies 4(1) • FUTUR initiative • Scenarios of the future • Leitvisionen (lead visions) • Participation of the public • Inducement for interdisciplinary pro- cesses (also science and humanities)

11. Identification of Future Technologies 4(2) • FUTUR initiative: Methodology and structure • Identification phase: Experts, trend setters, BMBF • Scenario phase: participation of interested citizens in scenario workshops, consensus conferences • Internet based discussions/processes • Deduction of “Leitvisionen” from scenarios, which should widely be accepted • Evolution of projects

12. Identification of Future Technologies 4(3) • FUTUR’s task: from consensus to goals • to roadmaps for solutions • experimental phase: learning by doing, will it converge?Reservations and reluctance: • minor engagement, slow progress in some fields • absence of busy advisersbut also: • high degree of motivation • lot of creativity in other fields

13. Identification of Future Technologies 4(4) Who is/will be involved in the FUTUR-process? Society: scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, associations of industry, unions, science organisations, NGO’s, media, citizens ... Policy-maker/”administration” Decision-maker/management

14. Identification of Future Technologies 4(5) • What has been done up to now? • Kick-off conference in 1999 • Experimental pre-phase • Start main phase in 2001 • appointment of innovation advisory council • establishment of inner group of actors (ca.400) • Workshop “Society 2020” with 23 Working groups • Structuring in 21 thematic clusters • 1.Conference of all WS participants • presentation of results to innov.adv.council

15. Identification of Future Technologies 4(5) • Some results (“thematic clusters = focus themes”) • sustainable mobility • medicine 2020: therapy, diagnostic, prevention • innovative structures for generating, selecting and proliferating knowledge • intelligent products: adaptability, netting ability, evolving potential • diet and health • cross-cultural communication • work-life balancing • competition of learning societies

16. Identification of Future Technologies 4(6) • More: • WWW.FUTUR.DE Missing so far: radical new visions/solutions (predominantly linear extrapolations of already known trends)

17. Identification of Future Technologies 4(7) Intention of FUTUR The process should open the minds of citizens and stakeholders for visions. The stream of surprising results should motivate to think the previously unthinkable. This should lead to thoughts about shaping the future, full aware of options, chances and risks. FUTUR should lay the foundation for better decisions