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Why E/3?

Why E/3?. Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of Renewable and Clean Energy University of Dayton. What on Earth Are These?. World Energy Use. World Economic Output. World Population. Converting Heat to Work. Since pre-history we knew how to:

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Why E/3?

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  1. Why E/3? Dr. Kelly Kissock Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department of Renewable and Clean Energy University of Dayton

  2. What on Earth Are These? World Energy Use World Economic Output World Population

  3. Converting Heat to Work Since pre-history we knew how to: Work Heat Industrial Revolution to: Work Heat

  4. Newcomen’s Steam Engine~1712

  5. Revolutionary Change • Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90% • Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50% • Transforms family: parents leave home to work • Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad • Technology and population explode

  6. Economic Explosion • From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year • Increases 30x!

  7. Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

  8. Single Most Important Event in Human History

  9. We’ve Come a Long Way… • Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% • Watt’s steam engine: 1% • Gasoline engines: 30% • Coal Rankine cycles: 35% • Turbines: 40% • Diesel engines: 50% • Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines: 60%

  10. But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged… 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels 2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

  11. In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005 84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

  12. Resource Constraints M. King Hubbert

  13. Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

  14. Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972) Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html

  15. Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

  16. Cambell’s World Oil Peak

  17. ASPO World Oil Peak

  18. World Oil Near Peak Production Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

  19. EIA’s World Oil Peak

  20. Extreme Oil “Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.” Simon Dyer

  21. Canada’s Oil Sands • Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) • GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater • Surface mining (20%): • Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil • 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings • Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed • 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond • In situ mining (80%): • Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface • Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

  22. Deep Water Drilling • Gulf of Mexico • 6,000 wells • Progressively deeper water • Deepwater Horizon: 5,000 ft water Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/ • Brazil’s Tupi Field: • 7,200 ft water + 15,000 ft sandstone/rock salt • $1 million/day to operate platform • “The only political fight in Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.” Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/

  23. World Natural GasNear Peak Production Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal, IEA 2004

  24. World CoalPeak Production 2050? Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

  25. Consequences of Peak Fuel • Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices • Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions • Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits • Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks • Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

  26. Environmental Perspective “Using energy in today’s ways leads to more environmental damage than any other peaceful human activity.” The Economist, 1990.

  27. 95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

  28. Global CO2 Concentration • Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii • 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

  29. Coincident Global Warming Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global Climate?”, American Geophysical Union, 2005.

  30. Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  31. Greenhouse Gas Trends Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

  32. Historical Temperature and CO2 Correlation “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  33. Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart” Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.

  34. Result: Earth Quickly Warming Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

  35. Warming Most Pronounced At Poles “Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

  36. Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

  37. Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

  38. And the List Goes On… • Drought • Severe weather • Mass extinctions (30% of species lose range) • Accelerating non-linear irreversible process • Methane release from thawing “perma-frost” • Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

  39. Debate? • Consensus view from: • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS) • Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’ • Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004): • All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 – 2004 with key words “climate change”. • Found 983 papers • NONE disagreed with consensus position

  40. Time Lags Amplify Effects • Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001

  41. Linear Model of Production Fossil Fuel Resources Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up Atmosphere Fossil Fuel Energy CO2 & Pollution Energy Out Economy

  42. Ecological Model of Production Biological Technical

  43. Transition to Sustainability IsCentral Challenge of 21st Century 21st century Industrial revolution Pre-industrial revolution Time Today

  44. OECD / Non-OECD Contributions Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

  45. US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC) Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

  46. US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES) Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

  47. California Story

  48. California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars

  49. US Energy Efficiency = 77% of Demand for New Energy Services

  50. But We Have to Move Even Faster…

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