New Congress, New Governors, New Research: Same Education Policy?

1. New Congress, New Governors, New Research: Same Education Policy? Noelle Ellerson American Association of School Administrators National Conference on Education 2011

2. 2010 Elections: Change! • The last time federal leadership was a Democratic President, a Democratic Senate and a Republican House was 1858. • The last time this many Republicans were elected to state legislatures was 1928. • The last time Republicans had a House majority of this size was 1938. • The last time there was as much turnover in Governors was in the 1920s.

3. State Elections • Nearly 30 new Governors have taken office. • Dems lost 8 Governor seats • Impact on state commitment to federal initiatives? • Race to the Top • Common Core • 19 state legislative chambers switched leadership • Both Houses: AL, ME, MN, NH, NC and WI • House: CO, IN, IA, MI , MT, OH and PA

4. Overarching Debate:Fiscal & International Stability • Federal deficit: Republicans elected on their promise to act NOW • Debt ceiling: Likely to be reached by late April — leverage for spending cuts? • National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform: “Our nation is on an unsustainable fiscal path ... neither political party is without blame.” • Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Defense on chopping block for cuts

5. Unrest in the Middle East • Huge implications, many not yet clear • Could overshadow domestic issues — including education • Potential economic impact — higher prices for oil, gasoline, other petroleum-based fuels • Big question: Will instability subside? Spread beyond Egypt?

6. Congressional Demographics • Democratic Administration • Just down the street, on the Hill: • HOUSE: 242 Republicans, 193 Democrats • SENATE: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

7. House Speaker John Boehner • One of the four authors of No Child Left Behind • 21 days after taking oath: With Sen. Lieberman (CT), introduced bill to revive DC voucher program — could be the only bill he authors all year, staff told POLITICO • Vouchers = area of agreement among vast majority of GOP caucus • So far: no major comments about ESEA, no appearances with Duncan

8. More Republican House Leaders Left to right: Majority Leader Eric Cantor (VA), Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan (WI), former Republican Conference Chair Mike Pence (IN), Appropriations Committee Chair Hal Rogers (KY)

9. Republican Leadership Goals • Cut federal spending — back to 2008 levels? 2006 levels? • Repeal health care reform • Roll back federal regulations • More tax cuts • Issue subpoenas, hold oversight hearings to undermine and discredit Administration • Goal: tarnish and diminish accomplishments of 111th Congress

10. Budget Cuts Proposed by GOP Leadership • Roll back non-security spending to 2008 levels • Cut up to $9.4 billion from pre-K to post-graduate education programs; would reduce or eliminate services for up to 8.2 million students, including up to 10,900 fewer teachers to reduce class sizes in Title I schools • Repeal increase in federal Medicaid match in education jobs bill; would devastate state budgets • Eliminate all remaining ARRA funding • Remember: their customer base is GOP governors, GOP presidential hopefuls

11. Education & the Workforce Committee Early Childhood, Elementary and Secondary Education Subcommittee Big 8 in Education: House Side John Kline (MN) Chair George Miller (CA) Ranking Member Duncan D. Hunter (CA) Chair Dale Kildee (MI) Ranking Member Note: Chairs were not in Congress when No Child Left Behind was written!

12. Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee Children and Families Subcommittee Big 8 in Education: Senate Side Tom Harkin (IA) Chair Mike Enzi (WY) Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman (NM) Chair Lamar Alexander (TN) Ranking Member Note: Strong awareness of rural concerns!

13. House of Oversight…er…Representatives • First hearing: TARP and the foreclosure crisis, January 26 • To come: Federal regulation, WikiLeaks, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Afghanistan, FDA recalls, Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission • American Recovery and Reinvestment Act: Where did the money go? Representative Darrell Issa (CA)Chair, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform

14. Republicans and ESEA: They Are on Our Side • John Kline: “There is common bipartisan concern that we must do something [about fixing NCLB] … I appreciate much of what Secretary Duncan is trying to accomplish with the Race to the Top Fund, but I continue to have doubts about some of the specific tactics being used to get there.” • Duncan D. Hunter: “We have a lot of common ground. We also see a major need. It’s time to get it done.” • Mike Enzi: “We’re trying to make the law more simple and put in state and local control.” • Lamar Alexander: “We need to get away from Washington announcing whether schools are passing or failing.”

15. ESEA….It’s About Time! • House Education and Workforce Committee: • First hearing February last week • Rep. Kline: Piecemeal. B • Big bill = political liability for House members • Senate HELP Committee: No more hearings — 10 held last year • Sen. Harkin: Would like to get a bill ready to mark up by the Easter recess, on the floor by the summer — Education Week, January 26, 2011

16. Research • Disconnect between research rhetoric and research reality • Unfortunate tendency to dismiss/avoid friction • Budget proposal includes funding for research • Need for research, especially rural research

17. State Legislatures • Let’s Have a Conversation • Vouchers • Union-bashing • Collective Bargaining • Superintendent Salaries • Credentialing • Teacher Training • Tenure • Monthly State Advocacy Call

18. Questions? Noelle Ellerson Assistant Director, Policy Analysis & Advocacy American Association of School Administrators nellerson@aasa.org 703-875-0764