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Human Population Dynamics

Human Population Dynamics. Current Population. US 310,241,523 (Net gain of 1 person every 11 seconds) World 6,868,672,761. Historical Population Sizes. 2000 years ago. World Population Distribution. World Population Density. Historical Population Sizes. Historical Population Changes.

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Human Population Dynamics

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  1. Human Population Dynamics

  2. Current Population • US • 310,241,523(Net gain of 1 person every 11 seconds) • World • 6,868,672,761

  3. Historical Population Sizes • 2000 years ago

  4. World Population Distribution

  5. World Population Density

  6. Historical Population Sizes

  7. Historical Population Changes • 3 surges in population • Tools and fire • Agricultural Revolution • Industrial and Medical Revolution

  8. Recent Population Changes • Rapid growth in past ~100 years due to decrease in death rate • Increased nutrition (more food, better distribution) • Improvements in medical technology • Improvements in sanitation and personal hygiene • Safer water supplies

  9. Population Change • Change = (crude birth rate + immigration) – (crude death rate + emigration) • % change = (crude birth rate - crude death rate)/10 • Current world growth rate = 1.1% • Increase of 76 million per year

  10. Different Worlds • High income, highly developed • Middle income, moderately developed(upper & lower) • Low income, developing

  11. Putting it in Perspective Miniature Earth

  12. Fertility Rates • Replacement Level Fertility (RLF) • Couple has enough children to replace themselves • RLF = 2.1 required to replace each generation • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Total number of children a woman will have in her life

  13. Fertility Rates

  14. Fertility Rates • What if TFR < 2.1? • Population decline • Population aging • In US, 66% of growth by 2050 from immigrants and their descendants

  15. Growth Rate • Growth rate has decreased • However, population still increasing - rapidly

  16. Doubling Time • 950 ce to 1600 650 years • 1600 to 1800 200 years • 1800 to 1925 125 years • 1925 to 1975 50 years • 1975 to 2025 50 years

  17. Calculating Doubling Time • If a population has a growth rate of 2.0%, what is its doubling time? • If a population has a doubling time of 14 years, what is its growth rate?

  18. Population Projection

  19. Population Profiles

  20. Population Profiles

  21. Demographic Transition • Process occurring during last ~100 years • Stabilization of population growth in highly developed nations

  22. Demographic Transition • Factors influencing transition

  23. Demographic Transition • Phase I • Common Characteristics? • NET RESULT = • Countries? • Brazilian tribes?

  24. Demographic Transition • Phase II • Common Characteristics? • NET RESULT = • ex. Nepal, Afghanistan , Sub-Sahara Africa • Niger • Burundi • Tanzania

  25. Demographic Transition • Phase III • Common Characteristics? • NET RESULT = • Ex. China

  26. Demographic Transition • Phase IV • Common Characteristics? • NET RESULT = • Ex: US, England

  27. Demographic Transition • Phase V? • Characteristics? • Consequences? • Ex: Japan, Germany

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