IC59 Untriggered All-Sky Flare Results Analysis Call, June 9, 2011 Mike Baker,

1. IC59 Untriggered All-Sky Flare Results Analysis Call, June 9, 2011 Mike Baker, Juanan Aguilar, Naoko Kurahashi, Jon Dumm, Chad Finley, Teresa Montaruli http://wiki.icecube.wisc.edu/index.php/IC59_Time_Dependent_Analysis

2. We have performed a search over the entire sky, scanning to find the strongest time-dependent behavior for the IC59 data taking period. As a reminder, the strongest flare from the IC40 data taking period was two events separated by 22 seconds in time on Feb. 12, 2009 at (254.75, 36.25). The -log10(p) of the flare was 4.67, anda more significant flare was seen in 56% of scrambled maps.

3. IC59 Flare Unblinded Skymap

4. The strongest fluctuation is from RA=21.35, dec=-0.25), the method finds an excess of 14.5 events, spectrum of E^-3.9, a mean of MJD 55259 and Gaussian width of 5.5 days (or a FWHM of 13 days). IC59 Flare Unblinded Skymap

5. The -log10(pretrial p-value) for data is 6.69. The skymaps take a very long time to run, and the unblinded result is more significant than the 100 scrambled skymaps generated so far, so the final p-value is likely less than 1%. More scrambled trials are on the cluster. IC59 Flare Unblinded Skymap

6. Here we see the time-integrated weights of the events at the strongest flare locaton. The cluster stands out fairly well. The events are fairly low energy, and a weight of 1e4 means they are typically less than ~1deg from the spot tested.

7. Here is a zoom-in on the warmest flare location. The method of making the maps initially samples a 0.5x0.5 deg grid, then a fine 0.1x0.1 deg grid for locations which were overfluctuations. Hottest Spot

8. Distribution of events Below we have the weights with no time term (ie using space and energy only) and including the time Pdf (right). The events shown are the 19 most significant events.

9. Here we have the 19 events which have the strongest time-dependent weights compared to all events which are within ±1.5 degrees in zenith from the hottest spot. The events look like good low energy muons.

10. Here are two of the events, an I3 file for viewing and also a root file are also available: http://icecube.wisc.edu/~mfbaker/IC59/flare/FlareSpot_Events_all_wGCD.i3 http://icecube.wisc.edu/~mfbaker/IC59/flare/FlareEvents_19best.root Events!

11. I looked on SIMBAD for possible objects, but didn't see anything which stood out. The quasar 4C -00.10 is nearby. I also extracted the Fermi lightcurve from the location (below), but there was no activity. There are no sources on the Swift or ASM public data near this location. No GRBs or Atels, also none of the events from this flare come close enough in time to trigger an OFU. Correlations?

12. The strongest flare in the sky from IC59 is a cluster of events from the beginning of March 2010. The post-trial p-value is still being calculated, the initial scrambled samples indicate p is somewhat less than 1%. http://wiki.icecube.wisc.edu/index.php/IC59_Time_Dependent_Analysis

13. Backup

14. Below is the plot for discovery and sensitivity of the method to a single,hard spectrum source. I'm currently investigating the curves for soft sources.

15. Here is a plot of the inverse of the space-angle between the events seen and the hottest spot.

16. Map of flare widths

17. Here is the distribution of the pretrial p-values over the entire sky compared with the average of 100 scrambled maps. Adjacent bins on the map are correlated, so the several blue bins above 6 all correspond to the same flare.