Dr. Andrew C. Hess The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

1. Saudi Arabia Globalization and Complexity Dr. Andrew C. Hess The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy

2. Understanding the diplomacy of global change will require complex multi disciplinary worldviews • Definitions of Globalization and Complexity • 1. Human application of modern technology dramatically increases inter-linkages between human beings and the complexity of their social systems. • 2. This same technological dynamism gives greater power to local agents while it recasts political, social, economic, and cultural differences between peoples. • 3. The power of this development is related to how humans react to the globalization of advanced industrial technologies, the information revolution of the late seventies, and a policy shift from defending national economies to developing global markets. If their reactions are in accord, they adapt; if not they go into revolt or fail to survive.

3. Globalization and its Challenges • The final arrival of the nation state order in the Gulf and Central Asia created for diplomats and policy makers a set of political and economic challenges that are local, regional and global. Globalization has produced serious challenges that are intimately connected to radical social and institutional change. Dealing with this complex consequences of global change, such as rapid urbanization, demands a great amount of interaction between policy makers, the legal profession, security personnel, business leaders and non-governmental agents: with society at large. • Finally, the scale and scope of modern technological change has produced large scale political and physical problems that become diplomatic issues, such as failed states and global warming. Both these issues will have consequences for all nations and for Saudi Arabia.

4. Globalization of Education • Rapid innovative national and regional change in step with globalization requires an intense development of the educational structure at all levels. One must know in order to do. • Educational change must be simultaneously driven from top down and bottom up to produce a wide cultural experience and a depth of commitment to dealing with the 21st century’s multidisciplinary problems. • Dar Al Hekma is an example of an innovative self directed approach to the challenges of education in a global world: it draws on local and international skills and experience to create educational institutions able produce leaders and innovators.

5. Instantaneous Change and its Requirements • Need for a Global perspective is exemplified by the need for Saudis to pay more attention to the emerging importance of Central Asia. • In 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed. This created five new Central Asian Republics and two new Caucasian nations. All theses new states lack stable national institutions. In addition they inherited serious internal an external political problems. • Given old linkages with Southwest Asia and the geographical connections with the Gulf, diplomats cannot ignore events taking place in Central Asia.

6. BLACK GOLD AND GAS AND THE STRUGGLE FOR POWER IN THE CENTER OF EURASIA • A more powerful connection with global forces comes from the resumption of large scale oil and gas production in the 90s from the Caspian Sea region. • The exploitation of Caspian oil and gas starts at a time when political violence has disturbed Gulf oil production and when geological experts suggest that Saudi Arabian extraction of oil is becoming more difficult. • On the demand side for oil, both China and India began to search vigorously for new supplies of oil in Central Asia in order to sustain remarkable rates of economic growth

8. Diplomatic Challenges • Putin makes the decision to revive Russian power through the exploitation of Russia’s oil and gas reserves in western and eastern Siberia. • European sensitivity to the new politics of energy surfaced quickly when Gazprom cut off the supply of gas to the Ukraine in winter 2006 and afterwards raised the price of gas for Azerbaijan, Georgia and Belarus. • In the same year, Russia and other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization agreed on a common effort to search for new energy sources and to hold joint military operations in 2007. • Meanwhile war in Iraq and difficult U.S.-Iranian relations raised questions about the future stability of Gulf oil supplies. • This example underlines the regional challenges faced in the 21st century with global dimensions. National leaders need to operate on multiple stages and international levels.

10. Shanghai Cooperation Organization

12. Another Problem for Diplomats:COLLAPSED STATES • In 1999, 95% of heroin in Britain came from Afghanistan. • Now Afghanistan under the influence Taliban is producing more than 80% of world’s heroin. • Internal conditions in Afghanistan are terrible: 20 years of warfare, massive relocation of refugees. . . • Central government is unable to control the countryside. • International military forces are not capable of defeating insurgents, who external actors often supply. • International aid and development organizations fail to introduce alternative crops for Afghans. • Opium eradication is not an option. • These problems do not have a military solution, they need a multidisciplinary approach

13. GENERAL RUPERT SMITH AND THE UTILITY OF USING FORCE AMONG POPULATIONS • Military conflict in the 1990s rarely produces a political outcome; it might establish what the outcome may be. • More and more combat is among people. • Conflicts tend to be long and capable of producing unintended consequences as local forces adapt to military asymmetry. • Commanders do not risk all to gain the objective. • Combating parties are mostly non-state: multi-national armed forces against non-state actors. • Success in controlling the above conditions requires military and political activity to be intertwined with local, regional and global organizations such the EU, NATO and the UN.

15. POTENTIAL FOR DISORDER TO SPREAD • There is a unique combination of terrorists, criminals and corrupt officials; and this event is a global affair. • The growth of competitive international capitalism provides these anti-state groups with new organizational techniques. • Open markets for new communication and financial technologies provide new services to terrorist organizations and these are often in advance of those available to security agencies. • Inability of some new and old states to control these forces also frames the rise of this new paradigm.

16. GLOBAL WARMING AS A FOREIGN POLICY ISSUE FOR SAUDI ARABIA? • 2007 UN Security Council debated global warming. • Floods, drought , fresh water shortages, agricultural collapses, reduced supplies of fish and the possibility of major migrations all may come as a consequence of global warming; therefore it is a security problem. • Russian ambassador to the UN said the claims of the scientists represented an overemphasis on the negative side of global warming. • Retired U.S. generals were consulted and they said it will produce security problems.

17. THE MELTING OF THE ARTIC ICE CAP • Last year the Arctic ice cap was approximately ½ its 1950 size. • In 30 to 40 years the Arctic Ocean will be ice free • Arctic sea lanes will open up for deep draft vessels within 10 to 15 years. • Geologists think that the Arctic region holds about 1/4 of the remaining oil and gas reserves in the world. • Russians send submarine to plant flag underwater at the location of the North Pole.

19. OPENING OF THE ARCTIC SEA ROUTES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL COMMERCIAL IMPACTS • Reduction in distance between Asian and northern European and American ports will cause a northern shift in commercial maritime traffic. • An open Arctic will encourage international oil companies and the Russians to drill in offshore Arctic continental shelf and on the shores of the Siberia and to develop liquefied natural gas facilities. • Seaborne transportation of Arctic oil and gas will by- pass the fees and construction costs that would result from the use of pipelines.

21. SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR SAUDI ARABIAN POLICY MAKERS • Production of Arctic and Eastern Siberian oil and gas will substantially expand Russian ability to supply Eurasian energy needs. • EU consumers will turn more aggressively to alternative energy sources and non-Russian suppliers such as Iran. • China and India will invest in Arctic oil as part of their membership in the SCO. • This event might encourage the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to cooperate more than in the past on energy issues.