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Uncertainty and the Management of the Cedar River

Uncertainty and the Management of the Cedar River. Presented by Bruce Bachen, Rand Little, and George Schneider Water Management Section Seattle Public Utilities May 13, 2003. The Cedar River. Water Supply for one million people

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Uncertainty and the Management of the Cedar River

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  1. Uncertainty and theManagement ofthe Cedar River Presented by Bruce Bachen, Rand Little, and George Schneider Water Management Section Seattle Public Utilities May 13, 2003

  2. The Cedar River • Water Supply for one million people • Key Habitat for chinook, coho, sockeye salmon and steelhead trout • Site of the largest sockeye run in the state, and the Landsburg sockeye hatchery

  3. Stream Flow Management: Protecting Instream Resources • Seattle’s water storage and diversion activities have a substantial effect on stream flows in the lower Cedar River • Stream flow is a key component of the aquatic/riparian ecosystem that supports salmon and many other species • Social values and species protection priorities change over time • The applied science of stream flow management is complex, relatively new, and continues to evolve

  4. Meet sockeye mitigation responsibilities by: Managing a hatchery to produce more sockeye and provide additional fishing opportunity while minimizing risks to naturally spawning salmon populations and the ecosystem

  5. Water Management - Context • Multiple Objectives • Vulnerability • Hydrologic Uncertainty

  6. Multiple Objectives Create the Tension of Competing Demands • Water Supply • Instream Flows • Reservoir Management for Resident Species • Flood Control • Hydropower

  7. Vulnerability • A Reflection of the Sensitivity of the System and its Beneficiaries (people and environment) to variable conditions

  8. Hydrologic Uncertainty-Imaginary World • If the hydrology affecting the system were 100% predictable, the system could be operated “perfectly”

  9. Hydrologic Uncertainty - Real World • Weather is highly variable and somewhat unpredictable • Climate is variable and may be changing • Physical processes affecting hydrology are complex

  10. Strategies for Decision Making in the Face of Hydrologic Uncertainty • Making Sense of the Past • Real-time Information Gathering • Forecasting • Communication with Stakeholders • Operational Flexibility • Risk Sharing

  11. Making Sense of the Past • Range of variability, statistical analyses • Affords Comparisons to Current Conditions and Development of Possible Futures • Physical Processes and response of Watershed • Learning from Prior Successes and Failures

  12. Real-time Information Gathering • Weather • Water Use • Fish and Wildlife • Snow • Streamflow

  13. Forecasting • Weather • Streamflow • Climate, ENSO/PDO

  14. Communication with Stakeholders • Greater Knowledge of Conditions, Issues and Values • Better Understanding of Consequences of Decisions • Risk Sharing and Decision Sharing

  15. Operational Flexibility • Dynamic Reservoir Rule Curves • Hydrologically-linked Instream Flow Obligations High Reliability Standard

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