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Introduction to Research Methods. How we come to know about crime. Why Study Crime?. To learn about the causes of crime Make predictions about criminal behavior Provide information to policy makers. The Desire to Generalize. Goal: External Validity
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Introduction toResearch Methods How we come to know about crime
Why Study Crime? • To learn about the causes of crime • Make predictions about criminal behavior • Provide information to policy makers
The Desire to Generalize • Goal: External Validity • We seek knowledge that is generalizable to some larger group • Method: Random sampling • Yields a representative set of observations • Each member of the population has an equal chance of being measured
Statistical Significance • A result is statistically significant if the probability that it is due to chance is less than 5% (α = .05), p < .05
What Is a Variable? VariableAttributes/Values young, middle-aged, old male, female plumber, lawyer, professor Race Social Class
Describing VariablesMeasures of Central tendency Mode = 16 13 Median = 15.5 13 Arithmetic Mean (Average) = (ΣYi)/N = 392/26 = 15.07
Two Kinds of Variables • Dependent variable: what we wish to explain or understand (crime, violence) • Independent variable: what we think explains the dependent variable (poverty, age, associating with other criminals) Dependent Variable Independent variable
Temporal Order Unemployment Property Crime Research Designs • Cross-Sectional: Gather data all at once • Longitudinal: Gather data over time to ensure proper causal ordering Property Crime Unemployment
Measures of Association:Correlation • Do values on one variable correspond to values on another variable? • If no, correlation = 0 • If yes • Correlation = +1.0 • Correlation = -1.0
Positive Correlation:Poverty and Homicide in Chicago Homicide Rate r = .51 Poverty
Negative Correlation:Neighborhood Satisfaction and Poverty Neighborhood Satisfaction r = - .66 Poverty
No Correlation:Social Ties and Poverty in Chicago Social Ties r = .02 Poverty
Crosstabulation:Homicide by Poverty in Chicago Positive Relationship
Neighborhood Satisfaction byPoverty in Chicago Negative Relationship
Social Ties by Poverty in Chicago No Relationship
WARNING:Correlation = Causation Ice Cream Murder Season Ice Cream Murder “Spuriousness”
Criteria of Causality • Temporal order • Covariation • No plausible alternative explanation • Association between two variables is not the result of some other variable causing them both • The relationship between the independent and dependent is not spurious
Data Gathering Methods • Survey Methods • Field Observation (ethnography) • Unobtrusive Measurement
Gender Discriminationat XYZ University? XYZ University has 2 colleges: Liberal Arts and Engineering
Conclusion • There is no gender discrimination at XYZ! • Women tend to apply to departments that have higher rejection rates • Moral of story: control variables • Simpson’s paradox
Experimental Research Design RANDOM ASSIGNMENT Experimental GroupControl Group Measure DV Measure DV Compare Test Remeasure DV Remeasure DV Compare
The Scientific Study of Crime Theory Written explanation of why things happen Empirical Hypotheses Generalizations Observation Scientific methods for observing what happens