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HR Planning

HR Planning. MANA 4328 Dr. George Benson benson@uta.edu. HR Planning. How many people do we need? Product Demand X Labor Productivity Turnover Where are they coming from? Internal Labor Market Existing employees External Labor Market Potential employees. Labor demand

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HR Planning

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  1. HR Planning MANA 4328 Dr. George Benson benson@uta.edu

  2. HR Planning How many people do we need? • Product Demand X Labor Productivity • Turnover Where are they coming from? • Internal Labor Market • Existing employees • External Labor Market • Potential employees

  3. Labor demand Strategic Planning Succession Planning Managing Retention Labor supply Labor markets Specific shortages HR Forecasts Labor Demand Labor Supply

  4. Forecasting Labor Requirements • Total labor requirements • Productivity and FTE employees • Scheduling and shifts • High volume / traffic times • Internal Labor Market • An internal survey of Houston Police Department officers eligible for retirement in 2004 found that 534 plan to leave that year - a 300% increase over recent years that translates into 1 in 10 officers. • External Labor Market • CVS disclosed in its annual report that it was forced to cut pharmacy hours in 2003 due to lack to qualified pharmacists.

  5. Forecasting Techniques • Budgeting • Statistical Techniques • Trend analysis • Regression • Probability models • Qualitative Techniques • Ask the experts / Delphi Technique • Needs are then compared to current workforce to identify gaps and decide staffing actions.

  6. Trend Analysis of HR Demand BUSINESS LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCES FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES) 1997 $2,351 14.33 164 1998 $2,613 11.12 235 1999 $2,935 8.34 352 2000 $3,306 10.02 330 2001 $3,613 11.12 325 2002 $3,748 11.12 337 2003 $3,880 12.52 310 2004* $4,095 12.52 327 2005* $4,283 12.52 342 2006* $4,446 12.52 355 *Projected figures

  7. Forecasting Supply of Employees • Staffing Tables • Markov Analysis • Skill Inventories • Replacement Charts • Succession Planning

  8. Forecasting Internal Labor Supply • Staffing Tables • Graphic representations of the number of employees currently occupying certain jobs and future (monthly or yearly) employment requirements. • Markov Analysis • A method for tracking the pattern of employee promotions up through and organization.

  9. Markov Analysis for a Retail Company

  10. Internal Demand Forecasting Tools • Skill Inventories • Databases of employee KSA’s, education, and used to match job openings with employee backgrounds. • Replacement Charts • Listings of current jobholders and persons who are potential replacements if an opening occurs. • Succession Planning • The process of identifying, developing, and tracking key individuals for executive positions.

  11. Replacement Charts

  12. Forecasting Databases PeopleSoft, SAP and Many Others “Army Leads the Way in Forecasting Its Hiring Needs” Washington Post April 29, 2001 • (WASS) Workforce Analysis &Support System • WASS holds 25 years' worth of data on Army civil service jobs and can be used to analyze long-term workforce trends. • (CIVFORS) Civilian Forecasting System • Computerized Forecasting System • Army hires 25,000 people annually by 2007

  13. CIVFORS Projections Based On: • Life-cycle modeling of the civilian workforce based on: • Promotions • Reassignments • Retirements • Separations • Time series forecasting techniques used to compute probabilities of events such as retirement and turnover. • Historical data and personnel characteristics are used as predictors of future behavior.

  14. Shifting Age Distributions in the Civilian Workforce • Since 1989 • Significant decrease in age groups less than 44 • Build-up of retirement eligibles Strength FY89 Median Age 42 FY01 Median Age 48 Age U.S. Citizen, Direct Hire, Appropriated Fund, Military & Civil Functions

  15. Staffing Actions • Recruiting new employees • Developing existing employees • Retaining key employees • Restructuring or redeployment • Outsourcing functions • Using contingent employees • Reassigning shifts

  16. Forecasting for Shift Coverage • Employees are needed to be present at all times. • Examples: Retail stores, call centers, nurses etc. • Need to account for productivity, peak demand, and time off to determine how many people to hire. • “Vacancy Factor”

  17. “Vacancy Factor” Indicates how many persons it takes to fill a position for a single shift, taking into account vacation, sick leave, training days, and other types of leave. • Total the number of days-off for all dispatchers including days off per week, vacation, sick time, training days etc. • Divide the total by the number of employees to obtain an individual average days-off per employee. • Subtract the above figure from 365 (days in a year) to estimate the average "days-on” per employee. • Divide 365 by the above number to obtain the vacancy or factor. 911 call centers average between 1.4 to 1.7.

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