By Andy Koehler and Joshua Mertzlufft

1. “An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak”RICHARD L. THOMPSON AND ROGER EDWARDS By Andy Koehler and Joshua Mertzlufft

2. Overview • Introduction • Synoptic Environment Evolution • Convective Initiation and Storm-scale Observations • Discussion • Summary and Implications

3. Introduction • In the late Afternoon and evening hours of 3 May 1999, a violent tornado outbreak affected portions of Central and Northern Oklahoma and Southern Kansas • 69 tornadoes documented from 10 tornadicsupercells • - Comparable to 26 April 1991, most recent outbreak to affect Oklahoma and Kansas

4. Introduction

5. Introduction • This outbreak had many difficult forecast problems • Initial supercell developed to the east of two weakly convergent drylines • Thick cirrus overcast reduced heating and boundary mixing • Well-defined jet streak 4-10 km AGL from eastern New-Mexico and Western Texas

6. Introduction • Intent of the article is to document the environment and evolution of the 3 May 1999 outbreak from the view of operational forecasters • Offers the opportunity to describe the event from synoptic scale down to the storm scale • Hopes of furthering severe storm research with the goal of benefiting convective outlooks, watches and warnings

7. Introduction • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W19qa-AK8Dk

8. Synoptic Environment Evolution • Moisture and Instability • Vertical Shear

9. Moisture and Instability • Mean large-scale trough located over western U.S. ( May 3rd @ 12 UTC) • Embedded short wave over Arizona • Large-scale trough amplified over the Rockies by 00 UTC on May 4th • Embedded short wave trough progressed from Arizona to western OK and KS • Deepening sfc low located over central high Plains • Low-level south to southeast flow over KS, OK, and TX

10. Moisture and Instability • Sfcdewpoints (middle to upper 60’s) spread northward from central TX at 00 UTC, to central OK by 12 UTC, and southern KS by 20 UTC • OK mesonat data showed diffuse drylines along the moist side of two moisture gradients • Western boundary- denoted typical dryline • Eastern boundary-weaker than typical dryline • 2 boundaries were supportive of 2 transition zones in the moisture field

11. Moisture and Instability • The diffuse boundary structures were less important than fact that dewpoints had increased to upper 60’s and sfc temps had warmed to the middle 80’s by 20 UTC in extreme SW OK • This contributed to very large CAPE values and weak convective inhibition

12. Moisture and Instability • 12 UTC Norman, OK sounding- revealed moist BL about 1 km deep, beneath elevated mixed layer from 825-600 mb • 18 UTC Norman sounding-some deepening of the BL from 12-18 UTC, with 2-3 degrees C of warming btw 700 and 500 mb • 00 UTC sounding- showed substancialwarming from 600 mb to the sfc during previous 12 hours (2-4 degrees C)

13. Moisture and Instability • Sounding from Fort Worth, TX revealed LL warming and moistening similar to Norman • Both 18 UTC and 00 UTC soundings at Norman yielded a mean BL based CAPE near 5000 J/kg, with less than 10 J/kg of convective inhibition

14. Vertical Shear • Time- height series of profiler winds from plots in the affected areas showed 20-45 knot strengthening of the flow in the 4-10 km layer • After that came a speed maximum in the 4-10km layer • The observed strengthening of the lower and middle tropospheric flow in the afternoon, which indicated enhanced supercell potential

15. Vertical Shear • Modest backing and strengthening lower level winds in Purcell, OK resulted in sufficient deep-layered vertical shear for supercells by early afternoon in the warm sector • BRN shear values of around 55 m^2/s^2 near convective initiation • 0-3 km SRH values of 120 m^2/s^2 for right mover and -46 for left mover in early afternoon

16. Vertical Shear • BRN increased in the late afternoon from 62 to 123 to 166 m^2/s^2 while 0-3 km SRH increased from 80 m^2/s^2 at 1800 UTC to 338 m^2/s^2 by 2300 UTC • Hodographs assumed pronounced clockwise curvature which strongly favored right-moving supercells • In mid to late afternoon, SRH values across central OK remained in the range of 350-400 m^2/s^2

17. Convective Initiation & SS obs • All supercells were preceded by development of 2 short-lived convective towers over NW TX • This convection formed under relative gap in the cirrus canopy and btw the sfcdrylines • Cirrus gap shifted northeastward across SW OK, where additional towering cumulus formed (SW of Lawton around 2030-2045 UTC)

18. Convective Initiation & SS obs • This convection rapidly evolved into a storm split (the first right-moving supercell, storm A) • Storm B developed explosively within a small cluster of updrafts west of Altus around 2115-2130 UTC, just west of eastern dryline • Storms A & B-most prolific tornado producers of the outbreak • Combined total of 35 tornadoes (including an F5 that moved across southern OK City and an F4 that hit Abell and Mulhall)

19. Supercell Character & Structure • Central OK thunderstorms-displayed visual characteristics of classic supercells • Storms A & B- tornadic periodically for 4-6 hrs • Visual obs, along with radar reflectivity & velocity signatures indicated maintenance of classic precip distributions about the updraft and forward-flank regions once in tornadic phases

20. Supercell Character & Structure • Storm-relative winds were supportive of CL supercells(21 m/s in the 9-11 km layer) • During first 1-2 hrs of storms A,B,E, & G, storms exhibited visually skeletal cloud structures (which are often associated with LP supercells) • However, radar imagery actually revealed CL precip patterns

21. Supercell Character & Structure • Certain characteristics almost constantly observed in storms A & B • Relatively low cloud bases in the regions of strongest apparent LL rotation • Clear slots wrapping cyclonically around wall clouds • Above conditions are characteristic of many tornadicsupercells

22. Supercell Character & Structure • Cloud base heights appeared to lower as each storm passed northeastward over progressively smaller sfcdewpoint depressions • Similar trends were observed in the lifted condensation levels (LCL’s)

23. Supercell Character & Structure • Largest and most damaging tornadoes occurred after the LCL’s lowered from roughly 1300 m @ 20 UTC where storm A had developed in SW OK, to less than 500 m in the OK City area by 00 UTC • Region of lower LCL’s coincided with region of largest SRH • This conforms to the trend toward increasing tornado threat as SRH increases • Structures of other supercells- generally consistent with the observations of storms A & B

24. Discussion • Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles • Convective initiation and low-level boundaries • Variations from classical supercell structures

25. Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles • Some aspects of the tropospheric evolution followed the typical sequence for Thunderstorm outbreak • Steep mid-layer lapse rates overspread the area • Boundary later moisture increased • Daytime heating further increased instability • However anticipation of the severe tornado outbreak was hindered by poor operational model forecasts of wind speeds in mid and upper troposphere

26. Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles • Large scale pattern recognition didn’t suggest the outbreak would ensue • Perceived problems were derived from models that showed modest vertical wind shear and surface analysis that didn’t provide clear focus for convective initiation • This being said, regional profiler data and soundings were consistent with other historical outbreaks

27. Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles

28. Buoyancy and vertical shear profiles • Each event is uncontaminated by convective outflow • Each show a deep later of strong positive buoyancy • Hodographs were very similar in lowest 3km

29. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • Sfc analyses revealed a dryline on the meso-alpha to synoptic scales, which appeared to be a diffuse double dryline structure in a finer scale analysis • Deep sfc low existed well to the NW of OK

30. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • Sfc convergence was ill-defined along each dryline • Moisture gradient was not particularly large • Ziegler and Hane(1993) suggested that BL conv is critical for maintaining a pronounced moisture gradient along a dryline, as well as for thunderstorm initiation along it • A large plume of cirrus overspread much of TX panhandle and western OK by early afternoon • Raised questions about cont’d heating and mixing in BL through mid-afternoon

31. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • The widespread high clouds & lack of conv in the dryline regions introduced considerable uncertainty regarding timing & location of convective initiation • However, the gap in the cirrus appeared to be crucial in allowing cont’d sfc heating & mixing to maintain weak enough capping for initiation of storms A & B

32. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • Upper-tropospheric divergence and possible weak inertial instability may have contibuted to a favorable environment for strong storm top divergence and sustained updrafts • Smaller scale- storm A appeared to have formed near updraft portion of a large horizontal convective roll (HCR) in the BL • This HCR updraft was a potential mechanism for convective initiation

33. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • The presence and depth of HCR’s are difficult to anticipate and detect in an operational setting • Forecasts for convective initiation will necessarily have large uncertainty when HCR’s or other subtle BL processes dominate

34. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • VIS satellite imagery- revealed a series of billow clouds oriented meridionally over northern TX and south-central OK, to the east of where storms A & B developed • These clouds associated with a relatively shallow, capped BL with backed sfc winds • The storms approached this area and encountered a confluent zone & associated backed sfc winds, which yielded 0-3 km SRH values of 300-400 m^2/s^2 • The storms produced more numerous and progressively stronger tornadoes as they moved into this area of increased SRH

35. Convective initiation & LL boundaries • Longevity of the storms after 00 UTC was in question due to a stronger cap well east of the confluence boundary • Storm A ceased producing tornadoes by 0130 UTC and dissipated shortly after 02 UTC • Storm D reached peak intensity only 30 miles south of where storm A dissipated • These obs underscore the difficulties faced by forecasters in anticipating storm longevity & tornado production in an evolving environment with subtle but important variations

36. Variations from classical supercell structures • At least two possible cases of structure storm interference were observed during the tornado outbreak • One in Wichita where the supercell weakened substantially after being overtaken by a large area of thunderstorms • Supercell in Parcell, OK was structurally altered by convection from the southwest. This storm was suggested to evolve into a violent tornado until the aforementioned disruption

37. Variations from classical supercell structures • Not all wind profile parameters were strongly supportive of classic supercells • One model showed a weakness in storm-relative winds in the middle troposphere, which was seen as a limiting factor • It can lead to excessive cold outflow in the rear-flank which can undercut the mesocyclone before the formation of significant tornadoes

38. Summary & Implications • The 3 May 1999 event in OK showed some general large-scale characteristics of historical severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the southern and central Plains. • Many important points to be learned from this outbreak • This event illustrates that outbreaks of strong & violent tornadoes are not necessarily associated with what many operational forecasters would consider to be the most evident large-scale patterns in numerical model outputs

39. Summary & Implications • The potential for a severe weather episode was anticipated by SPC forecasters a day in advance, but major tornado outbreak was not forecast initially • Much difficulty in anticipating the magnitude of the tornado threat 12-24 hours in advance was the result of poor numerical model forecasts of mid- and upper-tropospheric flow, and associated deep-layered vertical shear • However, obs data suggested a substancially greater and increasing threat of supercells with significant tornadoes, based on parameters derived from sfc analyses and profiler data from mid-morning to early evening on 3 May 1999

40. Summary & Implications • When forecasting a threat for tornadoes, the mode of convective initiation and the # & spacing of supercells that form are critical to the # of tornadoes expected • Storm spacing and motions were such that the supercells remained in an environment of favorable vertical shear and instability for several hours without numerous storm collisions • This allowed supercells to produce large number of tornadoes

41. Summary & Implications • The predominance of a supercell convective mode and lack of a squall line may have been attributable to the lack of strong LL conv near the drylines • Lack of convergence suggested that supercells may not even develop • Presented major forecasting challenges that day

42. Summary & Implications • Subtle clues/precursors to storm initiation important • Were present in high-resolution visible satellite imagery and WSR-88D data • Important features: complex dryline, confluence zone, and HCR structures • Even in the presence of mesoscalesfcobs, forecasters also may need to rely on careful interpretation of available satellite and radar imagery to recognize small areas where convective initiation is possible

43. Summary & Implications • Majority of significant tornadoes during VORTEX-95 occurred in association with sfc boundaries • LL baroclinic boundaries were either ill-defined or not present during the May 3rd outbreak • This illustrates that the apparent weakness or absence of such boundaries in the warm sector does not preclude significant tornadoes, given the initiation of supercells in an otherwise highly favorable environment (characterized by large CAPE, strong deep-layered vertical shear, and strong LL shear)

44. Summary & Implications • Observations suggested that subtle boundaries were important to initiation and evolution of several tornadicsupercells in the May 3rd outbreak • It remains crucial for forecasters to monitor high-resolution data to anticipate local areas of enhanced or diminished tornado threat

45. Summary & Implications • May 3rd tornado outbreak exposed some problems in the application of recent supercell and tornado forecast techniques • Some forecasters at the SPC anticipated a possibility of HP supercells because of: 1.) potential for storms to be seeded by adjacent storms, and 2.) inaccurate model forecasts of weak mid- and upper-troposphericflow and associated weak storm-relative winds

46. Summary & Implications • Operational forecasts of supercell types and tornado potential will continue to be difficult for the foreseeable future • Especially when the processes responsible for creating “favorable” supercell tornado environments occur on the mesoscale, or even storm-scale • The more general combinations of CAPE and vertical shear clearly supported tornadicsupercells by the late afternoon and evening of 3 May 1999 • This suggests that the background environment, as opposed to just storm-scale variations, can be a dominant controlling factor in regional tornado outbreaks

47. Summary • Introduction • Synoptic Environment Evolution • Convective Initiation and storm-scale observations • Discussion • Summary and Implications

48. Questions?