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Dr. Richard N. Palmer, Margaret A. Hahn, Dr. Azad Mohamadi, Dennis Kessler, Joe Dvorak

Portland Water Bureau’s Storage and Transmission Model (STM). A Computer Assisted Decision Support System. Dr. Richard N. Palmer, Margaret A. Hahn, Dr. Azad Mohamadi, Dennis Kessler, Joe Dvorak Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington

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Dr. Richard N. Palmer, Margaret A. Hahn, Dr. Azad Mohamadi, Dennis Kessler, Joe Dvorak

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  1. Portland Water Bureau’s Storage and Transmission Model (STM) A Computer Assisted Decision Support System Dr. Richard N. Palmer, Margaret A. Hahn, Dr. Azad Mohamadi, Dennis Kessler, Joe Dvorak Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington palmer@u.washington.edu http://maximus.ce.washington.edu/~palmer/

  2. Endangered Species Growing Urban Demands Climate Variability

  3. Planning Process

  4. Planning Process Drivers for IMP • Stakeholder Interest • Wholesale contract renewal (2005) • Water shortage Governance Issues (Wilsonville Tigard) • Clackamas • Consortium to evaluate transmission • Reliability/Vulnerability

  5. Potential Role from “Strategic Direction and Mission” • Be the regional water supplier • Supply Multnomah Counties and others as water is available • Serve primarily Portland • Serve the historic service base

  6. IMP Objectives • Provide cost data for contracts • Examine emergency supplies • Address aging infrastructure • Develop evaluation procedures • Identify preferred alternatives

  7. Quality of Life Years The Evaluation of Supply Alternatives During the past 50 years, our means of water resource evaluation has changed remarkably

  8. System Components

  9. Portland System • Serves ~ 840,000 people • Largest system in state Bull Run Watershed (215 MGD capacity) • Columbia South Shore Wellfield 1984 (90 MGD capacity)

  10. Bull Run System • Bull Run Watershed national forest reserve in 1892 • First pipeline built in 1895, 24 miles long. • Dam 1 built in 1929 • Conduit 4 built to 100 mgd • Dam 2 built in 1962

  11. Dam 1

  12. Dam 2

  13. Bull Run Lake

  14. The Modeling Approach

  15. Modeling Approach • Who will use the model, how will it be used? • Facilitate evaluation of a wide range of alternatives • Reflect issues of importance to the degree possible • Shared Vision of resources, operations and alternatives

  16. Modeling Approach • Requires modeling environment that is flexible and robust • Built conjunctively with Bureau • PWB must understand strengths and limitations of model • Ownership must be shared by PWB and model developers

  17. Questions to be addressed • What is the safe yield? • What is yield of Dam 3? • What is the yield of groundwater? • What are the impacts of operations? • Is transmission adequate? • Should in-town storage be increased? • In what year is increased supply required?

  18. Primary Alternatives • Conservation • Expansion of In-Town Storage and Transmission • Groundwater • Dams • ASR • Changing of Operating Rules

  19. EXISTING Conservation  Expansion    Groundwater   Dam 3 WEST EAST REGIONAL   EXISTING, DAM 3, MEDIUM CONSERVATION    EXISTING, HIGH CONSERVATION    EXISTING, MEDIUM CONSERVATION    REGIONAL, DAM3, HIGH CONSERVATION    Portfolio of Alternatives

  20. The Model

  21. Software Selection

  22. What the model does • Tracks daily movement of water • Evaluates future water demands • In 30 seconds: • evaluates 500,000 variables • for any year from 1940-1998 • for any forecasted period for 60 years

  23. Key Metrics • Adequacy of Supply • Storage Remaining • Groundwater Used, ratio of use • Percent Reliability • Transmission Shortfall

  24. Decision Support

  25. First decision support tools Notice attention to detail!

  26. Notice stakeholder involvement and outreach program in action Now, lets see, which button was I supposed to push for the paper feed?

  27. PWB Team

  28. Scenario Process • Two iterations were used • Describe plausible futures with emphasis on different goals • Develop 20 scenarios, evaluate, then further investigate 9 • Bring together staff members to view impacts of scenarios with the STM • Note surprises, counter-intuitive results, and insights

  29. Lessons learned • Conservation will play an important role • Conduit 5, Powell Butte Reservoirs I&II, Upgrade CSSW, Treatment, Westside ASR • Use of groundwater drives Dam 3 • Dam 3 could supply regional customers • If no expansions in BR, then groundwater • More customers with new surface sources requires increased groundwater use

  30. Future Directions

  31. Future Activities • Automate STM • Develop a Bureau systems approach to modeling • Integrate models where appropriate • Explore role of climate change (climate variability)

  32. Questoins?

  33. Habitat Conservation Plan Who will supply the water? Stewardship in the Basins Rates System Reliability

  34. Formulate Teams Identify Problems and Objectives Define the Status Quo Formulate Alternatives Exercise the Plan Implement the Plan Evaluate Alternatives

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