The Twilight of the Census

1. Department of Social Policy and Intervention Colloquium, Thursday 9 May 2013 The Twilight of the Census D.A. Coleman david.coleman@spi.ox.ac.uk http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

2. Antiquity of the ‘census’ and registration. Biblical / Ancient Middle East Sumer, Egypt, Babylon. 1491 BC Exodus (Numbers 1). 1017 BC King David (II Samuel XXIV, I Chronicles XXI, I Chronicles XXIII). Rome Quinquennnial for about 800 years (citizens and property), 5 BC and onwards in Empire. China 6th C BC – sporadic, 4 BC onwards, consolidation of local registers. Japan 646 AD Koseki system of household register, 1623 annual census to supplement Koseki. 1721 onwards, Central reporting every 6 years to 1852. Korea 1395 onwards compilations of households, population. Colonies 1624 (25 to 1774) Virginia and other British North America, 1665 (16 by 1754) Nouvelle France, Acadia, 1871 British India.

3. Some more recent censuses Europe and NeoEuropes 1086 Domesday Book in England. Unique. A stock-take of people and property acquired through a hostile takeover. 17th century Naples, Sicily and other principalities. 1703 Iceland (modern censuses start here) 1749 Sweden 1754 Austria / Hungary (secret until 20th century) 1769 Norway 1769 Denmark 1790 United States 1801 Great Britain (household census not until 1841) Latecomers (modern type censuses) 1831 Ottoman Empire (modern-ish) 1871 India (Raj) 1897 Russian Empire (but Baltic States 1860s). 1920 Japan (first household census).

4. Registration of religious / vital events Mediaeval Manor Rolls / ‘Inquisitiones Post Mortem’. Ecclesiastical registration. Parish registers 15th C Tuscany, 1538 England. Aggregation, family reconstitution. Bills of Mortality from 1538 in London, 1552 in provinces. Civil Register. Protectorate 1649 – 1660, early Parliamentary attempts 1753, 1758. (quotes from Farr, Quetelet) Civil Registration of births + deaths 1837 in E&W. Stillbirths 1926, Population Statistics Act 1938, communicable diseases, cancer registration, abortion 1967, congenital malformations 1969. Late 20th century proliferation of ‘administrative registers’: NHS, NiNo, DVLA, HMRC, TV licensing. Modern population registers replacing the census.

5. The state, the census and registration – a parallel evolution From the interests of the state to the interests of the individual. CONTROL 1. Power, state security and religious monitoring Japan 1623: Shrine registration (Koseki), Europe 16th c.; Parish registers. Survival (North American colonies, Iceland), Control of immigration. 2. Mobility. Dynastic and Communist China (hukou), Soviet Union, Belarus (propiska). 3. Taxation, military and manpower resources, forced labour. 4. Judicial and personal needs. Prevention of infanticide, clandestine / forced marriage, bigamy, murder, Proof of identity, entitlement, inheritance. (modern India) WELFARE 5. Monitoring health, environmental / occupational hazards. 6. Allocating resources – high proportion related to population needs. 7. Planning, welfare, regional, urban policy, equal opportunities. Fertility, mortality, marriage, divorce, income, health etc; variation between different geographical and social groups. 8. State population policy. Regional subsidy and redistribution. 9. Democratic arrangements e.g. US Congressional, EU, representation.

6. A London weekly parish bill of mortality, and a general bill, to show the (supposed) causes of death in the plague year 1665.

7. The census problem Highly uneven temporal pattern of expenditure – in UK about £500 million every ten years (censuses usually decennial). ‘Catching trains with last year’s Bradshaw’ New census data always 1-2 years late, obsolesces rapidly. A more mobile society makes problem worse Increasing civil liberties objections (Germany, US, Canada) Direct enumeration seldom over 95% – imputation needed. Degree of error unknown, maybe large. Migration, foreign resident statistics particularly bad. Local population and internal migration statistics particularly defective, LAs main consumers of census data. Consequent defective basis for many aspects of public policy and undermining of public trust (e.g. on immigration). Deficiencies and fraud on electoral register

8. Some specific UK population data problems Internal migration data indirect, inadequate and untimely (NHS register, etc). International migration data based on small voluntary sample with tacked-on multiple corrections. Home Office data incompatible, inward only. Categories uninformative. In ten page of IPS questionnaire, 1 page only on migration Emigration data especially defective. Unsatisfactory correction by LFS – not designed for LA analysis. Many LAs clearly undercounted. No system for keeping track of foreign citizens. Very large scale of recent migration prevents adequate border scrutiny with present resources and arrangements.

9. IPS 2004: Contacts and gross flows(Source of table: Salt 2007 from ONS MN series)

10. Twilight of the census? In 2010-2011 round of ‘censuses’ most Western European countries used wholly or partly register based- enumeration. UK, Portugal only exceptions (also much of Eastern Europe). ‘Rolling census’ in France from 2004. ‘Long-form’ census abolished in US, Canada. No replacement yet; ‘short form’ only has about 10 questions!.

11. Modern population registers In most complete form, unchangeable person-number issued at birth or naturalisation, linked to administrative registers. Separate or distinguishable identifier for non short-term foreign residents. Possibly linked to migration by universal coverage of migration through e-borders. No, or little additional information collected over that already obtained automatically from ‘administrative sources’. Needs complete register of dwellings; eventual registration of change of address on move between LAs. Person-number (PN) essential for access to public health, education and other services, NI, electoral register. Would appear on new passports. Link to ID card a rational step but not essential.

12. Part-way to a register in the UK? Some ‘administrative sources' of population data. National Insurance number for persons 16+. DWP Customer Information System holds full income details (incl. pensions, welfare). Also used by HMRC. NHS Central Register– all births, legal immigrants, assigned NHS number. Tracks medical records and moves between Health Authorities. NHS Health Authority patient register. ONS creates register for England and Wales. Tracks migration by postcode. Children’s database to be accessible by town hall, charity workers, doctors, social workers etc. TV Licensing Agency – adverts claim complete database, 97% of households. School Register to replace existing Pupil Number; ‘Unique Learner Number’ for all 14-year old children in England. New database with ‘tamper proof CV’ (MIAP) accessible by government departments - to track individuals until retirement. Eventually universal. Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency – 42 million drivers. ONS 2003 ‘Integrated Population Statistics System’ part-way to register; but migration dimension inadequate, not yet proceeded with. Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007 allows data sharing between public authorities. Electoral Register. LA based; unconnected with all the above. Use of administrative sources urged by LAs, Demographic Users Group, Statistics Users Forum, Statistics Commission, HEASIG, ESRC.

13. Previous Population Registers in England 1753 Act for Taking and Registering an Annual Account of the People… (Thos. Potter MP) 1915 – 1919 Adult population only – to establish number of men available for armed forces 1919 proposal Sir Bernard Mallet (Registrar –General) –demographic and entitlement aims. Not proceeded with. 1939 - 1952 National Register, included ID card. Limited data, linked to ration card.

14. It could have been better…. ‘No gentleman who has sat any time in this House can be insensible of the utility of the law proposed; for seldom a session passes over but something happens in which it would be of singular advantage to the public and a great satisfaction to ourselves to have upon our table such authentic accounts as are proposed by this Bill to be laid yearly before parliament’ (my emphasis – DAC) Thos. Potter MP, proposing the bill to create a population register (An Act for Taking and Registering an Annual Account of the People…Geo III 1753).

15. Examples of population registers (used by 18 EU countries) Sweden 1967, last conventional census 1990, register census 2010. Norway 1964; register census 2011 Denmark 1975; register census 1981 Finland 1969; register census 1990 Netherlands last census 1971; linked automated local population registers (GBA system) 1994. Austria (ZMR new system created in 2001 with 2001 census. 2002 Shared network with Ministry of the Interior and local authorities. Register based census 2010; test 2006. Slovenia 2001 ‘census‘ register-based. Germany: last census 1987; 2010 – 2011 census register – based with surveys. UK – 2011 census to be the last. What next?

16. ‘We have given ourselves a pervasive and expensive welfare state without the means to evaluate the condition, the needs or even the numbers of the population whose welfare is to be safeguarded and whose entitlements and security are to be protected. That is not a good way to enter the 21st century.’

17. Can it be fixed? Current proposals ONS hoped to make 2001 census infallible, hopes to do better in 2011. But many faults to be repeated. ONS trying to improve IPS data, e.g. on emigration and short-term migration Surveys to be amalgamated into Integrated Household Survey incorporating Annual Population Survey / Labour Force Survey. Some changes to NHS data Various strategic plans from ONS from 2003, e.g. ‘Integrated Population Statistics System’ to integrate administrative data (but little action on register). E-borders useful by 2014 (?) but no data on residence, no register of foreigners. Limited register for ID card (Citizen Information Project) 2006 for adults only; useful by 2020? Present system reached limits of improvement. Complete change needed.

18. ‘Administrative sources’ - UK is already part-way to a register. National Insurance number for persons 16+. DWP Customer Information System holds full income details (incl. pensions, welfare). Also used by HMRC. NHS Central Register– all births, legal immigrants, assigned NHS number. Tracks medical records and moves between Health Authorities. NHS Health Authority patient register. ONS creates register for England and Wales. Tracks moves by postcode. Children’s database to be accessible by town hall, charity workers, doctors, social workers etc. TV Licensing Agency – adverts claim complete database. School Register to replace existing Pupil Number; ‘Unique Learner Number’ for all 14-year old children in England. New database with ‘tamper proof CV’ (MIAP) accessible by government departments - to track individuals until retirement. Eventually universal. Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency – 42 million drivers. ONS 2003 ‘Integrated Population Statistics System’ part-way to register; but migration dimension inadequate, not yet proceeded with. Statistics and Registration Services Act 2007 allows data sharing between public authorities. Electoral Register. LA based; unconnected with all the above? Use of administrative sources urged by LAs, Demographic Users Group, Statistics Users Forum, Statistics Commission, HEASIG, ESRC.

19. How might a UK population register work? Not require ID card, though a rational addition (None in Denmark, voluntary in Austria, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden) Central innovation is Person Number (PN) linked to administrative records. No additional privileges from PN. Could be based on NI number. Main functions administrative: protect lawful access to services, minimise identity theft; demographic: timely local and national demographic data. Needs local or national population registers of all citizens / resident foreigners, with basic data, linkage to vital registration, divorce etc. Would require more systematic registration / de-registration of residence. Local authority registers linked together by postbox managed by ONS (as in Netherlands); or held centrally and accessible by local authorities (Sweden). Would produce highly accurate local population data or national data by linkage. Big improvement in local funding and claims on Treasury funding. No further need for conventional decennial census. Subsume and improve electoral register; eliminate duplication and error. Prevent duplicate, sham marriages (but not LAT fraud?) Linkage to NI, NHS, DVLA and ?HMCR minimise benefit fraud.

20. Previous Population Registers in England 1753 Act for Taking and Registering an Annual Account of the People… (Thos. Potter MP) 1915 – 1919 Adult population only – to establish number of men available for armed forces 1919 proposal Sir Bernard Mallet (Registrar –General) –demographic and entitlement aims. Not proceeded with 1939 - 1952 National Register, included ID card. Limited data, linked to ration card.

21. Problems Wholly or partly register-based system? Register-based ‘census’ needs linkage to other admin sources. How to deal with second homes? Cost? Setup high (£14 billion?) then lower. Public acceptability: existing lack of consensus over ID card. persistent gross incompetence in handling confidential data ‘Gestapo’ tactics by TV licensing authority: ‘your town, your street, your home; it’s all in out database…it’s impossible to hide’ Some data omitted in administrative sources: – events prior to register / abroad; cohabitation, household data if no dwelling list; de facto residence; transport to work / school. Only from census / surveys. Would it actually work, or become yet another UK IT fiasco?

22. Examples of population registers (used by 18 EU countries) Sweden 1967, last census 1990, register census 1975 / 2005 Norway 1964; register census 1970/2011 Denmark 1975; register census 1981 Finland 1969; register census 1970 / 1990 Israel 1948 Netherlands last census 1971; linked automated local population registers (GBA system) 1994. Austria (ZMR new system created in 2001 with 2001 census. 2002 Shared network with Ministry of the Interior and local authorities. Register based census 2010. Slovenia 2001 ‘census‘ register-based.

23. Population Register in Belgium (Belgians at home and abroad plus resident foreigners): For Belgian Citizens the following data are available: Name and Surname Sex Date and place of birth Address of residence Person number Occupation Composition of household Place and date of death

24. Belgium: further data required from non-citizens Immigration Service number Citizenship Refugee status Country and place of origin Limits on duration of stay Type, number and validity period of work permit Date of recognition as refugee Right of return to country of origin Visa information Type of inscription on voting list (i.e. whether entitled to vote in EU or local elections)

25. Netherlands GBA system Automated municipal population registers 1994, card-based from 1970s No central register (unique); only CBS ‘postbox’ shared by 538 municipalities. Personal file contains PN, data on parents, children, citizenship, civil status incl. cohabitation, address, legal status in Netherlands, right to vote, passport, (death). Updates automatically sent to mailbox; authorised organisations can access. Statistics Netherlands can make register ‘census’ every 1st January; continuous nationwide statistics on vital events.

26. Austrian ZMR register-based census system Established in 2002; set up very quickly. Register-census test 2006; full register census 2010. Based on linkage of 8 registers: population, tax, social security, unemployment, enterprises, housing, education, pupils and students. Checked by comparison with 7 other registers including central foreigner register from 2008. Complications: (a) System must use special encrypted PIN, not that normally used on registers (b) occupation not on any linked register; use LFS.

27. Conclusions Multiple problems with current UK population and migration data, security of individual identity, lawful access to services. Complex tinkering with existing systems: little further scope for improvement. Population register in various forms increasingly preferred in European countries, also implemented in China, India. Would provide timely and exact national and local population data, but needs to be linked to comprehensive exact migration data. Register bases well developed in UK; need PN link and information on change of residence. Some data not covered in administrative sources. Serious questions of public acceptability and control. 2011 census intended to be last conventional census.

28. Otherwise, UK population data goes back to its pre-1837 state? ……. I heard from several distinguished persons that there was a general complain to the imperfection of elementary population documents in this country…It is indeed a subject of wonder to every intelligent stranger, that in a country so intelligent as England, with so many illustrious persons occupied in statistical enquiries, and where the state of the population is the constant subject of public interest, that the very basis on which all good legislation must be grounded had never been prepared; foreigners can hardly believe that such a state of things could exist in a country so wealthy, wise and great. (Adolphe Quetelet, 1835).