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Maximizing the 3G Market: Perspectives on Spectrum Administration and Evolution to 3G William Bold

Maximizing the 3G Market: Perspectives on Spectrum Administration and Evolution to 3G William Bold QUALCOMM Incorporated. >. > E N A B L E D B Y C D M A C D G - B A N G K O K. > 4 - 2 9 - 0 0. > Main Points. 1. Market for data will emerge, but When? How? Where?

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Maximizing the 3G Market: Perspectives on Spectrum Administration and Evolution to 3G William Bold

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  1. Maximizing the 3G Market: Perspectives on Spectrum Administration and Evolution to 3G William Bold QUALCOMM Incorporated > > E N A B L E D B Y C D M A C D G - B A N G K O K > C D G - B A N G K O K > 4 - 2 9 - 0 0

  2. > Main Points • 1. Market for data will emerge, but When? How? Where? • - Evolution of existing networks minimizes risk • 2. Voice + High Data Rates = CDMA • - CDMA 3G coming very soon with 1X MC • 3. Policies should support evolution & 3G in multiple bands • - Maximize competition & spectral efficiency > C D G - B A N G K O K

  3. QUALCOMM leverages its leadership position in CDMA technology in each of its businesses > New Product Development CDMA Technologies Technology Licensing Wireless Systems Digital Media & Government QCOM > C D G - B A N G K O K

  4. > Internet Access Device Migration 2000 1998 Source: IDC, Dataquest, Sonera, Qualcomm > C D G - B A N G K O K

  5. Is there a Data Market? In 2000, wireline data traffic begins to exceed voice. > Source: Dataquest, "Changing Traffic Patterns: Data vs. Voice" May 24, 1999 > C D G - B A N G K O K

  6. Digital StandardsMarket Share 1999-2005 465 Million Subscribers > 1999 1.8 Billion Subscribers CDMA Will Dominate Well Into the 21st Century 2005 > C D G - B A N G K O K Source: Prudential Volpe

  7. CDMA: A Decade of Success 89 90 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 > Commercial CDMA launched in So. Korea PCS PrimeCo turns up nation- wide PCS servicein 14 cities CDMA IS-95standardissued Korea selectsCDMA Commercial systems in 100 U.S. cities Japan selects CDMA 50 million subscribers 83 operators, 35 nations* More than 75 companies licensed to build and sell IS-95 products CDMACellular Concept OmniTRACS goes international San Diego CDMAdemonstrationNov. 89 CDMA subscribers reach over 12.5 million in 30 countries on 5 continents* U.S. PCS standard issued First commercial CDMA systemin Hong Kong usingQUALCOMM phones Sprint PCS selects CDMA for nationwide network * According to CDG > C D G - B A N G K O K

  8. CDMA Subscriber Growth History: March 1998 through December 1999 Over 50 million Subscribers As of Dec. 1999 > Note: prior to March 1998 the Caribbean and Mexico are included in North America; after March 1998 they are included in Caribbean & Latin America > C D G - B A N G K O K Source: CDMA Development Group

  9. IMT-2000 Standards Compendium 1X 3X FDD Direct Spread FDD Multi-carrier TDMA Single Carrier TDMA Multi Carrier TDD Mode Migration to IMT-2000 in Existing Spectrum CDMA 1.9 IS-136 1.9 Stranded at 2 or 2.5G w/o CDMA overlay GSM 1.8 > C D G - B A N G K O K

  10. MSM Roadmap IMT-2000 Multi-mode iMSM5500 - HDR - IMT-2000 1xMC +IS-95A/B ….New Standards MSM5200 - IMT-2000 DS > MSM5000 - IMT-2000 1XMC - 153 kbps - Up to 2X Voice Cap. CDMA/GSM Multi-mode iMSM4100 - SmartPhone Chip - Dual CPU - 3rd Party OS ….New Applications iMSM4000 - Integrated Memory iMSM4000 - Integrated Memory iMSM4500 - HDR Trial Chip 3rd Gen 4th Gen 5th Gen 6th Gen MSM2300 - 186 uP MSM2310 - Int EVRC, RAM MSM3000 - Low power - ARM7 uP - 76 / 86 kbps fwd MSM3100 - Mixed Signal Chip - Int Tx I,Q DACs - Int Voice Codec - Int USB data MSM3300 - Int Pos Loc - Int Bluetooth - MP3, MIDI Ringer, MMC ….Core Product Line Q3’97 Q1’98 Q3’98 Q3’99 Q1’00 Q4’00 Q2’01 Engineering Sample Dates > C D G - B A N G K O K

  11. CSMRoadmap > CSM5000 - IMT-2000 1xMC - 307.2 kbps - 30+ Users CSM2000 - 8 Channel - IS95A/B - CSM1.5 Compatible CSM 1.5 Size, Cost and - Power Reduction CSM 1.0 - IS95A/B - Integrated Solution - Adds 14.4 kbps - Improved Rcvr Multi-chip solution - CSM Modulation - CSM Demod - Viterbi Decoder 1991 1994 1997 1998 Q1 ‘00 Engineering Sample Dates > C D G - B A N G K O K

  12. 3G: MSM5000 and CSM5000 > • World’s first solution for 3G CDMA 1x Multi-Carrier products • MSM5000™ • Data rates of 153.6 kbps on both the forward and reverse links • Increase in handset standby time of up to 50% • Doubling of overall capacity of voice users • Pin-compatible with MSM3000 • Development near completion and now sampled to customers • CSM5000™ • Data rates of 307.2 kbps on both the forward and reverse links • Supports up to 32 simultaneous users on a single chip, a four-fold increase over the previous generation CSM • Doubling of overall capacity of voice users > C D G - B A N G K O K

  13. Wide Area 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Wireless Data - Peak Data Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 General Limited Deployment Deployment > IS-95B cdma2000 1XRTT WIRELESS DATA ROADMAP 86 kbps (IS-95B) 153 kbps (1X RTT) 307 kbps (1X RTT) 19.2 Rx/9.6 Tx 57.6 Kbps GSM GPRS Technologies 38.4 Rx/9.6 Tx 90 kbps 120 kbps EDGE - Compact 157 kbps 250 kbps EDGE - Classic Source: Seybold Group, Qualcomm > C D G - B A N G K O K

  14. IMT-2000 Spectrum Allocations - No “Global Band” 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 Europe IMT2000 IMT2000 GSM 1800 DECT MSS MSS 1880 MHz 1920 MHz 1980 MHz 2170 MHz 1919.6 MHz Japan IMT2000 IMT 2000 PHS MSS MSS 1893.5 MHz 2160 MHz The Americas IMT-2000 MSS MSS Reserved IMT-2000 IMT2000 IMT2000 Korea Legend: Supports IMT-2000 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 > C D G - B A N G K O K

  15. Technology Decisions Still Pending @ IMT-2000 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 Europe IMT2000 IMT2000 GSM 1800 DECT MSS MSS Legacy spectrum; eventually re-farmed per CEPT 1880 MHz 1920 MHz 1980 MHz 2170 MHz GSM, 1x/3x MC or European DS-CDMA, EDGE???? 1919.6 MHz Japan IMT2000 IMT 2000 PHS MSS MSS 1893.5 MHz 1x/3x MC, EDGE? Japanese DS, 1x/3x MC 2160 MHz IMT-2000 MSS MSS Reserved The Americas > C D G - B A N G K O K

  16. WARC 92 has earmarked the spectrum for IMT-2000 S5.388 The bands 1885-2025 MHz and 2110-2200 MHz are intended for use, on a worldwide basis, by administrations wishing to implement International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT2000). Such use does not preclude the use of these bands by other services to which they are allocated. The bands should be made available for IMT-2000 in accordance with Resolution 212 (Rev. WRC-97). ITU Explicitly Supports In-Band Evolution from PCS to IMT-2000 > C D G - B A N G K O K

  17. Identification of Additional Spectrum for IMT-2000 • Bands identified for terrestrial component of advanced communications • applications by region: • APT CEPT CITEL United States • 806-960 862-960* 1710-1885 698 - 960 • 1710-1885 1710-1885* 1710 - 1885 • 2520-2670 2520-2670 2520 - 2670 • 2700-2900** • * for longer-term • ** for study for future identification > C D G - B A N G K O K

  18. 3G From Different Paths • 450 MHz • NMT analog spectrum that is being digitized • Allocations less than 5 MHz - only 1X/3X MC can be used • 800 MHz • 1X MC will be trialed and deployed (Bell Atlantic, Telstra, etc) • 1800 MHz • CDMA 1X MC overlays in existing GSM spectrum • 1900 MHz • CDMA networks migrate to 1X/3X (WorldCom, others) • 2 GHz - ITU spectrum • Greenfield spectrum • Carriers will choose from: DS, 1X/3X MC, EDGE > C D G - B A N G K O K

  19. CDMA, PCS Maximize 3G Spectrum - Technology Matters DCS/UMTS PCS Available for 3G in Near Term!! GSM 900 (~70 MHz) CDMA 800 (~70 MHz) Migration to 2.5G Only w/o CDMA overlay GSM 1800 (~150 MHz) CDMA 1900 (~120 MHz) Systems rolled out 2003-4 DS-CDMA 2 GHz (155 MHz) Extension Bands (~160 MHz) Extension Bands (~160 MHz) 1.8 available in EU 2010? ~315 MHz ~350 MHz > C D G - B A N G K O K

  20. NMT 450 (~5 MHz) 1X MC 450 GSM 900 (~70 MHz) 1X MC 900 Maximizing 3G Spectrum & Competition in DCS/UMTS Markets GSM 1800 (~150 MHz) 1X MC 900 DS-CDMA 2 GHz (155 MHz) Different Allocations 2x5 MHz 2x15 MHz 2x10 MHz Extension Bands (~160 MHz) > C D G - B A N G K O K

  21. CDMA 450 Opportunity • Existing analog-only (NMT 450) operators losing business to GSM • Approximately 1.8 million NMT subscribers active • CDMA 450 could turn presently underutilized and undervalued spectrum into cost-effective competition for GSM • CDMA provides a seamless path to • 1x and 3x • Milestone Events: • 10/99 450 MOU adopts CDMA • 09/00 CDMA 450 demonstration planned > > C D G - B A N G K O K

  22. Overlay StrategyExisting Cellular or PCS Spectrum - 10 MHz allocation AMPS Network AMPS > C D G - B A N G K O K

  23. Overlay StrategyClear Spectrum for cdmaOne cdmaOne Overlay AMPS F1 F2 cdmaOne > C D G - B A N G K O K

  24. Overlay StrategyClear Spectrum for 3G-CDMA1X 2001 Upgrade AMPS F1 F2 cdmaOne 3G-CDMA 1X > C D G - B A N G K O K

  25. Overlay StrategyClear 3 cdmaOne channels to make room for 3X 2003 Upgrade CDMA 3X Note - handsets will support backward-compatible voice roaming using AMPS, cdmaOne channels AMPS F1 F2 F3 cdmaOne CDMA 1X > C D G - B A N G K O K

  26. Overlay Strategy Flexible Network Evolution CDMA CDMA 3X CDMA 1X CDMA 1X cdmaOne AMPS > C D G - B A N G K O K

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