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Futures

Futures. Futures Markets Futures and Forward Trading Mechanism Speculation versus Hedging Futures Pricing Foreign Exchange, stock index, and Interest Rate Futures Using Futures to manage foreign exchange rate risk Index futures Interest rate futures. Futures and Forwards.

jerry-henry
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Futures

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  1. Futures • Futures Markets • Futures and Forward • Trading Mechanism • Speculation versus Hedging • Futures Pricing • Foreign Exchange, stock index, and Interest Rate Futures • Using Futures to manage foreign exchange rate risk • Index futures • Interest rate futures

  2. Futures and Forwards • Forward - an agreement calling for a future delivery of an asset at an agreed-upon price • Futures - similar to forward but feature formalized and standardized characteristics • Key difference in futures • Secondary trading - liquidity • Marked to market • Standardized contract units • Clearinghouse warrants performance

  3. Key Terms for Futures Contracts • Futures price - agreed-upon price at maturity • Long position - agree to purchase • Short position - agree to sell • Profits on positions at maturity Long = spot minus original futures price Short = original futures price minus spot • CBOT futures contract – page 788 • Different types of futures contracts – page 789

  4. Futures vs Option

  5. Trading Mechanics • Clearinghouse - acts as a party to all buyers and sellers. • Obligated to deliver or supply delivery • Closing out positions • Reversing the trade • Take or make delivery • Most trades are reversed and do not involve actual delivery • Open Interest

  6. Trading without and without a Clearinghouse

  7. Margin and Trading Arrangements Initial Margin - funds deposited to provide capital to absorb losses Marking to Market - each day the profits or losses from the new futures price are reflected in the account. Maintenance or variation margin - an established value below which a trader’s margin may not fall.

  8. Margin and Trading Arrangements Margin call - when the maintenance margin is reached, broker will ask for additional margin funds Convergence of Price - as maturity approaches the spot and futures price converge Delivery - Actual commodity of a certain grade with a delivery location or for some contracts cash settlement Cash Settlement – some contracts are settled in cash rather than delivery of the underlying assets

  9. Example • Related to marking to market • Maintenance margin – page 793-794

  10. Trading Strategies • Speculation - • short - believe price will fall • long - believe price will rise • Hedging - • long hedge - protecting against a rise in price • short hedge - protecting against a fall in price

  11. Hedging Revenues (Futures Price = $67.15)

  12. Basis and Basis Risk • Basis - the difference between the futures price and the spot price • over time the basis will likely change and will eventually converge • Basis Risk - the variability in the basis that will affect profits and/or hedging performance

  13. Futures Pricing Spot-futures parity theorem - two ways to acquire an asset for some date in the future • Purchase it now and store it • Take a long position in futures With a perfect hedge the futures payoff is certain -- there is no risk. A perfect hedge should return the riskless rate of return

  14. Hedge Example • Investor owns an S&P 500 fund that has a current value equal to the index of $1,300 • Assume dividends of $20 will be paid on the index at the end of the year • Assume futures contract that calls for delivery in one year is available for $1,345 • Assume the investor hedges by selling or shorting one contract

  15. Hedge Example Outcomes Value of ST 1,305 1,345 1,405 Payoff on Short (1,345 - ST) Dividend Income Total 1,365 1,365 1,365

  16. General Spot-Futures Parity Rearranging terms Multiple period formula: page 802 (22.2).

  17. Arbitrage Possibilities • If spot-futures parity is not observed, then arbitrage is possible • If the futures price is too high, short the futures and acquire the stock by borrowing the money at the riskfree rate • If the futures price is too low, go long futures, short the stock and invest the proceeds at the riskfree rate

  18. Theories of Futures Prices • Expectations • Normal Backwardation • Contango

  19. Foreign Exchange Futures • Futures markets • Chicago Mercantile (International Monetary Market) • London International Financial Futures Exchange • MidAmerica Commodity Exchange • Active forward market • Differences between futures and forward markets • Spot and forward prices in foreign exchange – page 815 • Foreign exchange futures

  20. Pricing on Foreign Exchange Futures Interest rate parity theorem Developed using the US Dollar and British Pound where F0 is the forward price E0 is the current exchange rate

  21. Text Pricing Example rus = 5% ruk = 6% E0 = $1.60 per pound T = 1 yr If the futures price varies from $1.58 per pound arbitrage opportunities will be present.

  22. Hedging Foreign Exchange Risk A US firm wants to protect against a decline in profit that would result from a decline in the pound • Estimated profit loss of $200,000 if the pound declines by $.10 • Short or sell pounds for future delivery to avoid the exposure

  23. Hedge Ratio Hedge Ratio in pounds $200,000 per $.10 change in the pound/dollar exchange rate $.10 profit per pound delivered per $.10 in exchange rate = 2,000,000 pounds to be delivered Hedge Ratio in contacts Each contract is for 62,500 pounds or $6,250 per a $.10 change $200,000 / $6,250 = 32 contracts

  24. Stock Index Contracts • Available on both domestic and international stocks • Advantages over direct stock purchase • lower transaction costs • better for timing or allocation strategies • takes less time to acquire the portfolio • Major stock index futures – page 821

  25. Index Arbitrage Exploiting mispricing between underlying stocks and the futures index contract • Futures Price too high - short the future and buy the underlying stocks • Futures price too low - long the future and short sell the underlying stocks

  26. Market Neutral Strategy To protect against a decline in level stock prices, short the appropriate number of futures index contracts • Less costly and quicker to use the index contracts

  27. Example Portfolio Beta = .8 S&P 500 = 1,000 Decrease = 2.5% S&P falls to 975 Portfolio Value = $30 million Project loss if market declines by 2.5% = (.8) (2.5) = 2% 2% of $30 million = $600,000 Each S&P500 index contract will change $6,250 for a 2.5% change in the index

  28. Example -- continued Change in the portfolio value Profit on one futures contract $600,000 $6,250 H = = = 96 contracts short

  29. Uses of Interest Rate Hedges • Owners of fixed-income portfolios protecting against a rise in rates • Corporations planning to issue debt securities protecting against a rise in rates • Investor hedging against a decline in rates for a planned future investment • Exposure for a fixed-income portfolio is proportional to modified duration

  30. Example Portfolio value = $10 million Modified duration = 9 years If rates rise by 10 basis points (.1%) Change in value = ( 9 ) ( .1%) = .9% or $90,000 Present value of a basis point (PVBP) = $90,000 / 10 = $9,000

  31. Example -- continued PVBP for the portfolio PVBP for the hedge vehicle $9,000 $90 H = = = 100 contracts

  32. SWAP • A portfolio manager owns a $100 million of long-term bonds paying a coupon of 7% • He switches it to a floating rate issue based on the 6-month LIBOR rate • Page 832 shows the payoff from SWAP

  33. Swap Dealer Page 831

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