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ENSO: El Ni ño Sou thern Oscillation

ENSO: El Ni ño Sou thern Oscillation. Background, Dynamics, Regional Impacts, and Future Outlook. Josh Gellers Luis Poza EESC W4400. ENSO:Background Information. Coupled ocean-atmosphere instability in the equatorial Pacific

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ENSO: El Ni ño Sou thern Oscillation

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  1. ENSO:El NiñoSouthern Oscillation Background, Dynamics, Regional Impacts, and Future Outlook Josh Gellers Luis Poza EESC W4400

  2. ENSO:Background Information • Coupled ocean-atmosphere instability in the equatorial Pacific • Two distinct phases, El Nino and La Nina, occurring every 2-10 years • Sir Gilbert Walker recognized teleconnections in 1920s (i.e. sea-level pressure differences) • Name coined by Peruvian fishermen • Paleoclimate record indicates impacts as far back as 130,000 years ago

  3. ENSO: Dynamics • Normally, temperature gradient between western and eastern equatorial Pacific due to equatorial upwelling and presence of easterlies. • During El Nino, Walker Cell is disrupted, meaning more convection over eastern Pacific. • Easterly winds weaken or reverse and the eastern Pacific experiences a warm SST anomaly. • During El Nino, thermocline deepens in east and shoals in west. • Leading to…

  4. ENSO: Regional Impacts El Niño: Increased likelihood of: -Above normal rainfall anomaly in Peru, Ecuador, Western US -Depleted fishery stocks in eastern Pacific -Drought in northeast Brazil, eastern Australia, Indonesia and southeast Asia, southeastern Africa -Weakened Indian monsoon

  5. ENSO: The Future • Effects of warming and GHG increase uncertain -ENSO neutral state more like current La Niña -More frequent and intense El Niño events -No change at all?

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