Development of Aquatic Ecosystem Models

1. Development of Aquatic Ecosystem Models Lizhu Wang, Shaw Lacy, Paul Seebach, Mike Wiley Institute for Fisheries Research MDNR and U of M

2. Project Objectives • Develop statewide models for predicting stream flows and summer water temperature; • Develop models describing relationships among base flow, water temperature, and trout population; • Test model sensitivity by incorporating site-specific data from Augusta Creek; • Evaluate effectiveness of catchment BMPs in offsetting ground water withdraw.

3. The Key Step: Describe relationships among flow, temperature, and trout TROUT FLOW TEMPERATURE

4. Build Statewide GIS Databases Identify stream measuring unit

5. Michigan 1:100,000 NHD 38,000 inter-confluence stream reaches

6. Build Statewide GIS Databases Delineate catchment boundaries for each unit

7. Reaches, Watersheds, Riparian Zones, and Upstream Catchments

8. Upstream Catchment Context

9. Build Statewide GIS Databases Synthesize landscape & instream characteristics for each stream unit

10. Reach of Interest Reach of Interest Reach of Interest Reach of Interest

11. Synthesize Landscape Data • Land use/land cover • Surficial geology – texture & formation • Soil permeability • Bedrock depth & geology • Average annual growing degree days • Average annual precipitation • Air temperature • Ground water delivery potential – Darcy • Land use transformation model output

12. Synthesize Network & Instream Data • Arc gradient • Catchment gradient • Arc sinuosity • Arc stream order, linkage number • Arc fragmentation by dams and linkages with lakes and large rivers

13. Variables and Scales • The database contain about 300 variables. • The data are organized into 5 scales • Channel • Riparian (arc) • Riparian (entire) • Watershed (arc) • Watershed (entire) From Paul Steen, 2004

14. Build Sampled Databases Link sampled flow, temperature, and trout data with each stream unit

15. Develop Summer Water Temperature Model • Collected continuous summer water temperature from about 500 sites throughout Michigan. • Developed geo-statistical and generalized additive regression models for July mean ---- Temperature kriging + residual modeling (Mallow’s Cp, Min AIC). • Model explains 77% variance.

16. Michigan Stream Temp. Predictions 26.0º C 9.0º C

17. Flow Models Based on 83 sites that have >20 years flow data • Multiple regression models for predicting annual and August 5%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90%, 95% exceeding flows; • Models explain 78 – 97% variance.

18. Annual Flow Predictions 90% Flow Yield

19. Stream Sites Sampled for Fish Community Based on fish data from about 1500 sites

20. Link flow, Temperature, and Trout (hypothetical model) Cold Typical Marginal July mean water temperature oC

21. Cold Typical Marginal

22. Link flow, Temperature, and Trout (hypothetical model) Cold Typical Marginal July mean water temperature oC

23. Cold Typical Marginal

24. Augusta Creek Watershed • Max July Temp Difference • 1) ± 4°C (± 7.2°F) • 2) ± 7°C (± 12.6°F) • 3) ± 4°C (± 7.2°F) • 4) ± 11.5°C (± 20.7°F) • 5) ± 5°C (± 9°F) • 6) ± 10.5°C (± 18.9°F) • 7) ± 6.5°C (± 11.7°F) • 8) ± 8°C (± 14.4°F) • ± 7.5°C (± 13.5°F) 5. 4. 7. 3. 9. 6. 8. 2. 1. (trib) Gull Lake N

26. Summary • Identified stream measuring unit; • Delineated catchment boundaries of each unit; • Synthesized landscape & instream characteristics of each unit; • Linked sampled data for trout, flow, and tempertaure with each stream unit. • Developed models for prediction of flow and temperature. • Partially built models linking trout, flow, and temperatur. • Collected temperature and fish data from Augusta Creek.