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Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment

Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology K. Rupa Kumar. Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002. The People. Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) Dr. K. Krishna Kumar Mr. C.M. Mohile Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan

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Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment

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  1. Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology K. Rupa Kumar Indo-UK Programme on Climate Change Impacts in India : Delhi Workshop, Sep. 5-6, 2002

  2. The People • Dr. K. Rupa Kumar (PI) • Dr. K. Krishna Kumar • Mr. C.M. Mohile • Mrs. S.K. Patwardhan • Dr. P.K. Mishra • Dr. G.B. Pant • Collaborators/Consultants: • Dr. D.B. Stephenson, University of Reading • Mr. D. Hassell, Hadley Centre • Prof. D.V.B. Rao, Andhra University

  3. OUTLINE • Objectives • Research Tasks • Observed climate change in India • Coupled model projections • HadRM2 diagnostics and scenarios • HadRM3H installation at IITM

  4. Objectives • Evaluation of Regional Climate Model simulations for Indian climate • Estimation of uncertainties in model-based predictions • Development of future climate scenarios for India during the 21st century • Preparation of climate change scenario products for impact assessments

  5. Research Tasks • Evaluation of HadRM2 simulations for India • Development of climate change scenarios based on HadRM2 experiments • Installation of HadRM3H at IITM • Sensitivity experiments with HadRM3H • Climate change scenario runs with HadRM3H • Quantification of key uncertainties

  6. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

  7. Long-term Trends in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

  8. All-India Mean Surface Temperatures(1901-2000) Based on a constant network of 31 stations well-distributed over India

  9. Long-term Trends in Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature

  10. Diurnal Asymmetry of All-India Mean Annual Temperature Trends

  11. Mean Annual Cycles of Observed and SimulatedAll-India Monthly Rainfall & Surface Air Temperature

  12. Models – Temp Maps

  13. Models - RF Maps

  14. Models – RF Contr

  15. Models – RF CV

  16. Temp Series

  17. MonRF Series

  18. Climate Change over India in Transient Simulations (1980-2039 relative to 1920-79)

  19. Models-MonRF var

  20. MonRF Change - ECHAM

  21. MonRF Change – HadCM3

  22. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3H) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region • HadRM3H installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development will be performed at IITM

  23. All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

  24. All-India Seasonal Rainfall

  25. All-India mean Surface Air Temperature

  26. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (Control)

  27. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (Control)

  28. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Precipitation (GHG-Control)

  29. HadRM2 Simulations: Seasonal Surface Air Temperature (GHG-Control)

  30. State-wise mean precipitation scenarios : HadRM2

  31. State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2

  32. State-wise Mean Temperature Scenarios : HadRM2

  33. State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2

  34. HadRM2 scenarios for distribution among impact groups • Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60) • Each experiment has 20 years data • Monthly and Daily data on various parameters • Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing • Spatial means for administrative units (other spatial units can be included) • One standard CD set of monthly data with basic climatic elements, and specialized data CDs based on impact group’s requirement

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