에너지환경 경제학 (5)

1. 아주대학교 에너지시스템사업단 에너지환경 경제학 (5) 아주대학교 경제학과, 에너지시스템학과, 금융공학협동과정 교수 김수덕 (suduk@ajou.ac.kr)

2. Understanding Renewable Energy

3. Saul Griffith's kites tap : wind energy

4. 대통령, 유엔 원자력안전 고위급회의 기조연설 2011.9.22 UN

5. If not NUC., what else?

6. Fuel Cell Hydrogen Coal Gasification IGCC New and Renewable Energies ｢New, Renewable Energy Development, Utilization and Promotion Act｣ 2nd Clause, (Dec. 2004) Solar Heat LFG PV Renewable Energy Marine Energy Bio New Energy Wind Small Hyro Geo- Thermal

7. Overview • World Primary Energy Composition (2007) • Shares of energy sources in total global primary energy supply (2008) Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011 Source: Renewable Information 2009

8. 에너지원으로서의 신재생에너지의 역할에 대한 검토 • 전세계 신재생에너지원의 잠재량 • 각 신재생에너지원의 기술적 잠재량이 2008년 기준으로 각각 전력, 열, 전세계 1차에너지 공급에 육박하거나 초과하고 있다고 보고하고 있음 <SRREN;Special Report on Renewable Energy Source and Climate Change Mitigation, 2011.5>

9. World Renewable Energy World Renewable Energy Growth Rate (1990-2007) Source: Renewable Information 2009

10. Renewable Energy Promotion Targets Sources: Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010”, UNEP 2010, “Renewable 2010 Global Status Report” REN 21 2010, “Renewable Energy Development in Emerging Markets” Arcadia Market Commentary 2009, “The UK Renewable Energy Strategy” HM Government 2009

11. Renewable Energy Costs Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

12. Declining Renewable Energy Production Facility Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

13. 에너지원으로서의 신재생에너지의 역할에 대한 검토 • IPCC SRREN의 결론 점검 • 단지 몇몇 분야의 추가적인 고려가 필요하나 기술 및 기간설비의 확충으로 신재생에너지 자원이용이 가능한 지역에서 이를 복합적으로 구성하는데에는 근본적인 기술적 제약이 거의 없을 것. • 고려해야 할 분야로는 송배전망의 기간설비, 전력생산의 유연성, 에너지저장기술, 수요측면의 관리, 그리고 예측과 운영계획상의 개선 등을 제시하고 신재생에너지 생산비용, 관련정책 및 환경적 이슈, 사회적 측면의 이슈 등이 있음. • 과거의 경험으로 볼 때, 경제적 유인이 제대로 주어지는 경우, 기술개발이 기존의 설비를 다양한 형태로 대체해 왔고, 이는 신재생분야에서도 적용될 것.

14. Domestic Promotion Result Survey : FIT kWh/Inv. Cost

15. Renewable Energy Promotion Plan

16. Technical Advancements (ex: Wind) Source: SRREN, IPCC, 2011

17. Wind Power Wind Power Generation Calculation Power Prod. Power Curve Wind Speed Probability Wind Probability Distribution and Power Curve of Wind Mill Wind Distribution Power Curve

18. Wind Project - SaemanKeum • Source: Prefeasibility test of Saemankeum Proj., KDI, 2009

19. Photovoltaic • East Sun Power Gen. Co. • 22MW, 0.7Mil M2 , US 200Mil.

20. 에너지원으로서의 신재생에너지의 역할에 대한 검토 • 신재생에너지의 특성 및 계통운영 • 피크타임의 간헐성(B)뿐만 아니라 A부분과 같이 전력수요가 최저수준인 경우에 돌연한 풍력발전을 통한 전력생산의 문제가 발생

21. 풍력전원의 음의 가격 • ERCOT (Electricity Reliability Council Of Texas) 내 풍력발전의 구성이 매우 큰 West Texas 지역에서 발생한 풍력발전이 음의 가격을 나타낸 사례 • 이는 전력이 쉽게 저장할 수 없고, 송전상의 제약이 발생하는 경우에 나타나는 문제로 간헐성과 비급선성에서 발생한 대표적인 사례 • 2008년 중반 ERCOT은 zonal congestion managements prices를 도입하고, 송전망을 개선하는 등의 방법으로 문제가 개선되고 있는 상황이라고 함에도 불구하고 발생하는 현상임을 감안할 때 국내 전력계통운용상 시사하는 바가 크다. 풍력전원의 음의 가격 (ERCOT West, 2010

22. 에너지원으로서의 신재생에너지의 역할에 대한 검토 • 신재생에너지원의 간헐성과 계통 운영상 시사점 • 우리나라는 단독계통으로 정출력 운전을 하는 원자력발전기의 점유율이 높기 때문에 신재생에너지원이 계통에 미치는 영향은 다른 어떤 나라의 계통보다도 크게 나타남. • 재생에너지원의 출력 간헐성에 의한 주차수 안정도 문제는 에너지 저장장치를 활용하여 해결할 수 있지만, 아직까지 에너지 저장장치의 가격이 높음. • 저장장치의 활용보다는 풍력발전기 등 신재생에너지원의 출력변화율에 대한 규제를 실시하여 출력변동성 자체를 줄이는 방법이 있음

23. Understanding the Intermittency of Renewable Energy

24. Power Market & Renewable power SMP Producer Surplus Hourly Load Wind, etc LNG Power Plants Nuclear Coal Power Plants

25. Results of Simulation(1) • Impact on the power load peak by wind power generation (2010~2011)

26. Results of Simulation: Wind (Year 2030) S1 S2 S3 S4 1400 4000 Source: Korea East-west Power Corporation, An Analysis of Renewable Power Facility and Its Peak Time Impact on Overall Power Mix, Final Report, 2009. 01

27. Results of Simulation: PV (Year 2030) S1 S2 S3 S4 2400 2800 Source: Korea East-west Power Corporation, An Analysis of Renewable Power Facility and Its Peak Time Impact on Overall Power Mix, Final Report, 2009. 01

28. Wind Power Generation Forecast Considering Uncertainties • ANEMOS (Development of A next generation wind resource forecasting systemfor the large-scale integration of onshore and offShore wind farms) • WP-1: Data collection & evaluation of needs (OVERSPEED) • WP-2: Off-line evaluation of prediction techniques (CENER) • WP-3: Development of statistical models (DTU-IMM) • WP-4: Development of physical models (RISOE) • WP-5: Off-shore prediction (UNIV-OLDENBURG) • WP-6: Anemos prediction platform development (ARMINES) • WP-7: Installation for on-line operation (END USERS) • WP-8: Evaluation of on-line operation (UC3M) • WP-9: Overall assessment and Dissemination (RAL) • WP-10: Coordination (ARMINES) • HONEYMOON Project (a High resolution Numerical wind EnergyModel for On- and Offshore forecasting using ensemble predictions) • http://www.cordis.lu/eesd/home.html • http://www.cordis.lu/eesd/src/proj_eng.htm • WILMAR (Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets)

29. Wind Power Generation Forecast Considering Uncertainties • Other Related Researches • Akpinar, E.K. and Akpinar, S., 2004, "A statistical analysis of wind speed data used in installation of wind energy conversation system.", Energy conversation and Management, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 2004 • Dowell, A.C. and C.E. Oram, 1996, “A hysteresis-free wind pump, Wind Energy Conversion 1996, Mechanical Engineering Publications Limited”, 75~80 • AWEA, 2003, "Global Wind Energy Market Report" http://www.awea.org • EWEA, 2003, "WIND ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT" • EWEA, 2003, "WIND POWER TARGETS FOR EUROPE: 75,000 MW by 2010," http://www.ewea.org • EWEA, 2003, "WIND POWER TECHNOLOGY" • EWEA, 2003, “Wind Energy - The Facts Vol.2 Costs & Price • EWEA, 2004, Wind Force 12. • Jaramillo, O.A. and M.A. Borja, 2004, Wind speed analysis in La Ventosa, Mexico; a bimodal probality distribution case, Renewable Energy, Volume 29, 1613~1630. • Wind Power Monthly, 2001, Vol. 17, No. 9 • Wind Power Monthly, 2002, “The Windindicator”, http://www.wpm.co.nz • Wind Power Monthly, 2002, Vol. 18, No. 5

30. Renewable Energy Policy

31. 3 813 Compared to BAU △21% △27% △30% 642 590 569 National Mid-term GHG Mitigation Target Projected Emissions (BAU) 30% reduction target by 2020 compared to BAU(Nov. 17, 2009) Unit: million ton 900 1 2 800 700 Emission Prospect/3 Mitigation Scenarios 594 600 500 400 298 300 200 100 0 2020 2005 1990 • Source: Ministry of Environment 15

32. 2007 2030 Geothermal: 3.8% others: 0.7% Geothermal and others: 9.7% others: 5.9% Photovoltaics: 0.5% Photovoltaic: 4.1% Wind: 1.6% Wind: 12.8% Bioenergy: 6.0% Waste 33.4% Hydro. 16.4% Bioenergy 30.6% WASTE 74.8% Hydro 4.0% 11% of NRE in TPES in 2030 • Raise the share of NRE up to the same level of those of the US and Japan • Mandatory NRE portfolio standard and development of new NREs

33. How to achieve the 11% target Wind Photovoltaic 7,301 capacity MW) (capacity MW) 3,504 Geothermal Ocean Photovoltaic hydro Solar Wind Bio Waste 11% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% 3.4% 3.7% 44Times 37 times 199 80 ’07 ’30 ’07 ’30 Bio-fuel Geothermal 5,606 (heat supply, Thousand Gcal) (heat supply thousand Gcal) 36,487 2.4% 19 times 51 times 110 1,874 ’07 ’30 ’07 ’30 ’07 ’30

34. RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard) • It is believed that Renewable energy can supply a significant portion of the energy needs and create public benefits, including environmental improvement, increased fuel diversity, national security, and economic development. These benefits, however, are often not reflected in the prices paid for energy, placing renewable energy at a severe disadvantage when competing against fossil fuels and nuclear power. • A policy that requires those who sell electricity to have a certain percentage of "renewable"* power in their mix. These policies often start around 1-5% in the first year and require an increasing percentage of renewables in each energy supplier's mix, often aiming for a goal of 4-20% in about 10 years. • Those who received that obligation may or may not supply renewable power. If they decide not to supply renewable power have to buy the amount due at the market to avoid penalty.- Tradable Renewable Energy Credit [TREC] orTradable Credit [TC] market will determine the premium for renewable energies => Market Mechanism!

35. FIT(Feed-in Tariff) vs.RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standards) RPS FITs Supply Curve Supply Curve P P ① Guaranteed Price ② Price or NRE premium determined ② Quantity Determined Q Q ① Obligation

37. EU 27 Countries’ Renewable Energy Policy Source: Renewables 2010, Global Status Report, REN21, 2010

38. Other Countries’ Renewable Energy Policy Source: Renewables 2010, Global Status Report, REN21, 2010

39. Developing Countries’ Renewable Energy Policy Source: Renewables 2010, Global Status Report, REN21, 2010

40. Understanding Nuclear Power [이슈&뉴스] 日 원전 없는 세상?…그 과제는, KBS News9, 2012. 3.9

41. Outline • Introduction • Motivation • Review on the Controversy over Nuclear Energy • Nuclear Policy Changes After Fukushima • Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and China • Energy Mix and Nuclear in Power Sector for 3 North-East Asian Countries • A Simple Calculation of Emission Reduction by Nuclear Power • A Simple Calculation of Emission Reduction by Nuclear Power • Overview of China’s Nuclear Plan • Inland Nuclear Power Plants in China • China’s Nuclear Plants, Earthquake Zone • Locational Distribution of Nuclear Reactors • Regional Wind Direction • Concluding Remarks

42. Motivation • Nuclear power, as energy security and also as an emission-free energy source has been paid high attention by Northeast Asian countries, Korea, Japan and China, • Current total operable nuclear capacity of the three countries accounts for 20% of the world total • When additional reactors under construction, planned and proposed altogether are considered, it will account for almost 32%. • After Fukushima accident, controversy over nuclear energy in addition to its safety issue has emerged as a hot issue again.

43. Previous Discussions on this issue (Cons) • Lee et al. (1996) argues that • USA needs 1000 new nuclear reactors to replace all coal power plants at a minimum cost of $5 trillion, still leaving five sixths of the greenhouse gas emissions untouched, as electrical generation only accounts for one sixth of the problem. • Estimated true costs of electric power they provided show that of nuclear power the highest ranging from 12.9 cents/kWh to 17.9 cents/kWh while those of coal and solar ranges from 8.1 cents/kWh to 12 cents/kWh, from 8.04 cents/kWh to 20.04 cents/kWh, respectively. • Greenpeace (2008) report concludes that • Nuclear power is not a part of the climate solution but an expensive and dangerous distraction that it can only be reached by employing renewable energy and energy efficiency. Source: Lee Susan, Greens Austin, 1996. True Costs of Nuclear Power, Synthesis/Regeneration 11.  Greenpeace, Nuclear Power Undermining Climate Protection, Greenpeace International, 2008. Also available at www.greenpeace.org

44. Previous Discussions on this issue (Cons) • A comparison of the levelized cost of nuclear power is conducted by Lucas (2011) applying those of coal and natural gas based on MIT (2009), updated construction costs from U.S. DOE (2010) and carbon tax of $25 per ton CO2. • The resulting estimates for nuclear, coal and gas ranges from 8.7 cents/kWh to 10.5 cents/kWh, from 6.5 cents/kWh to 9.6 cents/kWh and 6.2 cents/kWh to 6.7 cents/kWh, respectively, concluding nuclear as the most cost ineffective power source. Lucas W. Davis, Prospects for U.S. Nuclear Power After Fukushima, Working Paper, Energy Institute at Haas, 2011.

45. Previous Discussions on this issue (Pros) • EC report explicitly includes • quantifiable external costs for selected electricity generation technologies to have social cost estimates. • In this process potential damages on climate change are also said to be considered. Resulting total costs with MCDA (Multi Criteria Decision Making Analysis) ranking, however, show nuclear power least expensive choice. • Nuclear energy ranks lower than renewable due to the benefit from its much improved economic performance. • Coal technologies perform worse than centralized natural gas options. Source: European Commission, New Energy Externalities Development for Sustainability (NEEDS), Joint Research Centre (JRC), 2009. Also available at cordis.europa.eu. Jim Lovelock, 2004. Nuclear power is the only green solution, The Independent, May 24.

46. Previous Discussions on this issue (Pros) • Sailor (2000) analyzes the safety and economics of nuclear power and suggests that nuclear power would take a major role to cope with climate changes under the assumption of securing safety. • Lovelock (2004) explains serious situation of global warming with various examples, and concludes nuclear power as the only breakthrough. • Zhou (2010) argues that nuclear power is a relatively clean energy source without green-house gas emission, so that nuclear development has a promising future in China. Source: William C. Sailor, 2000. A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change? , Science Vol. 288 No. 5469, 1177-1178.  Yun Zhou, 2010. Why is China going nuclear? , Energy Policy 39, Issue 2, 771-781.

47. Nuclear Policy Changes After Fukushima • In Germany, government has announced a reversal of policy that will see all the country's nuclear power plants phased out by 2022. • In France, nuclear power plants are designed to withstand an earthquake twice as strong as the 1000-year event calculated for each site. • Switzerland suspended approval for three new plants and Bulgaria prepared to freeze a nuclear project. • Poland announced building its first reactor. • Romania also decided to build two additional reactors • Brazil is building its third plant. Source: IEA

48. Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and China • On 22nd September 2011, Korean President Lee Myung-Bak delivered a keynote speech at the high-level meeting of UN on nuclear safety and security. • He said that • the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, which dealt a huge blow to confidence in nuclear safety, should not be the cause to renounce nuclear energy. • He also said the use of nuclear energy is inevitable as it is one of the best alternatives capable of meeting growing global power demand and of helping solve the problem of climate change. • but the regional cooperation should be strengthened as a nuclear accident is transactional.

49. Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and China • Japan's Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, said on July 13, 2011, that • he wanted his country to learn from its ongoing crisis and become less reliant on nuclear energy. • He told at a news conference that the nuclear risks are too high and renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass should eventually replace nuclear as a new pillar of Japan's energy supply, along with conservation. • Current Japanese Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda, however, was determined to restart idled reactors by summer 2012, adding that • it was ‘impossible’ for the country to get by without them or to consider a quick phase out of nuclear energy. • Mr. Noda's determination to preserve nuclear power, at least in the short run, stands in contrast to the position of his predecessor, and against mounting popular opposition to nuclear power in Japan.11 Source: Wall Street Journal on September 21, 2011

50. Recent Nuclear Policy of Korea, Japan, and China • In December 2011 the National Energy Administration (NEA) said that • China will make nuclear energy the foundation of its power-generation system in the next 10 to 20 years, • adding as much as 300 GWe of nuclear capacity over that period. • Two weeks earlier the NDRC(National Development and Reform Commission) vice director said that • China would not swerve from its goal of greater reliance on nuclear power. • The former head of the NEA(Nuclear Energy Agency) said that full-scale construction of nuclear plants would resume in March 2012. Source: Nuclear Power in China, Updated December 2011, WNA, Available at www.world-nuclear.org. Accessed Jan. 19. 2012.