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Climate Change and Complexity

Climate Change and Complexity. Govert D. Geldof – Geldof c.s. (NL) & DTU Lyngby (DK) Swarm Planning and Wicked Problems SASBE09 – Delft, 16 June 2009. Physical Complexity. Observation 1. People. People. Social Complexity. Observation 2. 30 July 2002 1500 hours.

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Climate Change and Complexity

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  1. ClimateChange and Complexity Govert D. Geldof – Geldof c.s. (NL) & DTU Lyngby (DK) Swarm Planning and Wicked Problems SASBE09 – Delft, 16 June 2009

  2. Physical Complexity Observation 1

  3. People

  4. People

  5. Social Complexity Observation 2

  6. 30 July 2002 1500 hours

  7. Kashafrood Groundwater Resources (The Main) • Ground water recharge : 945 MCM/year • Ground water extraction :1145 MCM/year • Ground water deficit : -200 MCM/year • W.L. Drawdown from 1963 to 1973 : 7 m (0.7 m/year) • W.L. Drawdown from 1974 to 2002 : 33 m (1.2 m/year)

  8. Observation Measures Societal feedback unsafe Society Catchment area Technique

  9. Observations Adaptation Societal feedback safe Society Catchment area Technique

  10. Societal feedback unsafe Society Catchment area Technique

  11. The relationship betweenflood risk & society Flood risk areas Multiple deprivation

  12. Interactions between physical and social system are complex by nature Observation 3

  13. “Legal talk what is crooked”

  14. When you accept complexity, it becomes more simple Central statement When you fight complexity, it becomes more complicated

  15. Social Complexity Theory • When looking for change: look at the ‘edges’ • Focus on ‘noise’ and emergent processes • Tacit knowledge plays a significant role • Ask yourselves the question: “How is knowledge organising?” instead of “How can we organise knowledge?” • Etc.

  16. Is Climate Change a Wicked Problem? • Key Characteristics: • Difficult to clearly define problem • Many interdependencies and multi-causal • Attempts to address problem often leads to unforseen consequences • Problem is not stable • There is no clear solution • Problem is socially complex • Rarely the responsibility of any one organisation • Solution involves changing behaviour • Characterised by chronic policy failure Australian Public Services Commission (2007)

  17. Accept wickedness (complexity) • Explore full range of aspects and human values • Do not try to optimise them, but organise a interdisciplinary learning process

  18. Aspects (Values) Moral Historical Legal Logical Aesthetic Psychological Economic Ecological Social Chemical Linguistic Physical

  19. Tame problem versus wicked problem

  20. Emergent property

  21. Enjoy complexity and the beauty of practice Final conclusion

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