Identifying Reliable Evidence

1. Identifying Reliable Evidence By Geoff Edwards President The Royal Society of Queensland 26 March 2018 president@royalsocietyqld.org.au

2. The Royal Society of Queensland Established 1884. Successor to the Philosophical Society of Queensland (1859). Colonial successor to Royal Society of London (1660). The residual generalist learned society. Scope – philosophy, science, application of science (technology, systems, etc), evidence-based policy, education. Supports curiosity-led inquiry + scientists; advocates but is not activist; non-partisan; not an environmental campaigner. No scholarly barriers to membership. 2

3. Definition Evidence is raw data plus a theory connecting datasets, that is, cause and effect. At its source, evidence should be value-free, but the choice of what evidence to use and the logical framework into which it is imported are value-laden.

4. Summary of the challenge All evidence is contestable. There is a wide divergence of worldviews amongst opinion-leaders and some values are incommensurable. The challenge is to identify reliable sources of evidence, and to describe procedures of policy formulation that are: ethical robustly grounded in evidence, avoids ‘alternative facts’ logically rational – avoids fallacies, resistant to accusations of bias fit for purpose – likely to be effective.

5. Scientific method 1: Aristotle Curiosity-led inquiry built on foundations by Aristotle (384–322 BC) and his mentor Plato. Aristotle was an experimentalist, arguably the first ‘scientist’ in the Western tradition. Aristotle the first to systematise logical errors: identified thirteen logical fallacies.

6. Scientific method 2: Enlightenment The European Enlightenment from mid-1600s marked flourishing of curiosity-led inquiry. Weakened influence of religious rigidity. Understands world through observation - not speculation, or faith in supernatural forces. Based on rationalism (application of reason and logic) and empiricism (generation of evidence through experiment).

7. Scientific method 3: Cautions NOTE A: Logic is necessary, evidence by itself is not enough. Evidence is simply input. NOTE B: Logical analysis vacuums evidence from all relevant disciplines and sectoral interests. NOTE C: Logic and evidence not enough for wise policy decisions. Practical judgement (common sense) and ethical world view are also required. NOTE D: Evidence and expertise are not independent of the presenter. Disciplines and sectors are two distinct axes.

8. Scientific method 4: Curiosity-led search for causality Science is a never-ending search for causality. By its nature it is curiosity-led not motivated by pecuniary reward. Science works by pitting evidence against hypotheses – testable propositions – attempting to disprove until they survive or crumble. Every proposition in science is subject to contradiction by new evidence. No scientific theory can be proven true, it can only be falsified (Popper). Doesn’t claim truth, only facts converging on truth. Note: basic assumptions in orthodox economics are not deemed falsifiable, so it is not a science, regardless of mathematical precision.

9. Scientific Method 5 – First scientific publication“Philosophical Transactions, Giving some Account of the present Undertakings, Studies, and Labours of the Ingenious in many considerable parts of the World”. First published 1665, sponsored by Royal Society of London. Featured modern functions of the scientific journal: registration (date stamping and provenance); certification (peer review); dissemination; and archiving. Scientific knowledge is recorded and builds on past knowledge. Knowledge expands exponentially and indefinitely.

10. Causation Every phenomenon can be explained by multiple layers of causation: • Proximate causes – triggers – immediate acts or individuals who release the animating forces. Changeable with horizon of days or sooner. • Intermediate causes – motives – underlying driving forces that act as preconditions. Changeable over years. • Cultural causes – values – attitudes of a society conducive to the intermediate causes. Resistant over decades. Some pre-conditions are necessary, others sufficient, others just supportive.

11. Model of policy formulation 1 In public sector, three “streams" of activity operate concurrently (Kingdon):  a problem stream, in which issues are recognised and demand attention; (most scientists remain here; the electorate remains here);  a policy stream, in which the policy community (public service, think tanks, public intellectuals) lobbies, floats pet ideas or grinds axes;  a political stream, in which attention spans are short, there is always a drama, and media magnify whatever is happening. Progress happens when ‘policy windows’ open up and brokers link activity in the three streams. Budget time and elections are typical windows. This process is non-linear. No-one is in charge.

12. Brokers link spheres of activity Science/ Medicine Model 2: Communication circles MPs Policy (QPS) Political stream Media Policy stream Sectors operate in semi-independent circles, using different methods of internal dialogue. Public service is both a centre of activity and broker. Problem stream Business Academe Civil society

13. Implementation Five capacities are needed within the one locus of activity to implement a policy: coordinating mandate (influence) – the critical function; statutory power; technical knowledge (scientific and otherwise); skilled personnel; budgets (and other resources). Lack of any one can be fatal to success the policy. Commonly disaggregated. Role of Premier's Department and Treasury to muster the capacities – or enthrone a champion – is pivotal to success.

14. Discussants Dr Heather Douglas Sociologist, Member of the Royal Society, career spans public health including World Health Organisation, Geneva. Ms Kaye Pulsford Executive Director, Preventive Health, Department of Health Ms Angi Bissell Director, People & Organisations, Management Consulting, PricewaterhouseCoopers Dr Geoff Edwards Biologist, public policy postgraduate, retired Queensland public servant.

15. Issues When there are multiple causes, how to select the most fundamental or the most worthy of action. How to detect evidence compromised by self-interest of advocates. How to overcome the fatalism that afflicts policy officers when they don’t control the tools for implementation – may lie in a different jurisdiction. Are the forums for sifting reliable from unreliable evidence adequate. Are the forums for assembling, translating and analysing evidence to present to non-specialist decision-makers adequate. If not, what can this meeting suggest to improve translation capacity. ends