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Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in Italia Roma, 13 dicembre 2005

Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in Italia Roma, 13 dicembre 2005. L’innovazione nelle tecnologie di comunicazione elettronica. Claudio Carrelli. Research or Marketing Hat?. Three Hats. Regulation. Technology. Market. An Old Chinese Game. Which one is more important?. Fisso e’ lento

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Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in Italia Roma, 13 dicembre 2005

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  1. Stato e Futuro del settore ICT in ItaliaRoma, 13 dicembre 2005 L’innovazione nelle tecnologie di comunicazione elettronica Claudio Carrelli

  2. Research or Marketing Hat?

  3. Three Hats Regulation Technology Market

  4. An Old Chinese Game Which one is more important?

  5. Fisso e’ lento Mobile e’ rock • La telefonia e’ lenta Internet e’ rock • La TV commerciale e’ lenta La larga banda e’ rock • La tecnologia non deve essere lenta Le applicazioni sono super rock

  6. “Mobile Broadband Internet” The simplest and most effective combination of three words to describe the most promising developments of the ICT world for the next years But do not under evaluate applications for new services!!

  7. Summary • Technology and social impact • From cable vs radio to fix vs mobile • The digital revolution • Future trends and opportunities

  8. 1. Technology and social impact

  9. Three basic questions on technology • 1. Do we have “too much” technology? • 2. When is a technology “mature”? • 3. Can a technology be simply “transferred”?

  10. 1. Do we have too much technology? • In 1816 Francis Rolands, proposed an electric telegraph to the Admiralty. • The answer was negative because the war with France was considered over and the telegraph system (optical at the time) was in no need of improvement

  11. Laser technology • Invented in the seventies • Immediately named as a “solution looking for a problem” • Nowadays no HI-FI music, no letter printing, and no more long distance telephone calls without laser technology

  12. The “Tron House” • The first “intelligent house” • Completed in 1989 (Nishi Azabu, Japan) • Key concept: fusion of “humans”, “nature” and “computers” • A total of 380 computers, all of them interconnected via the “TRON Architecture” • Dismantled in '94

  13. What did we learn? • Technology has not a value “per se” • Technology is an enabler • The value is in the application • …the value is in its easy of use

  14. Simplicity will win! • Electric Telegraph was indeed developed and deployed, but, due to its inherent difficulties of use, it never met mass markets. • Its successor, the telephone, with its easy use found the big success

  15. 2. When is a technology “mature”? 1927

  16. What did we learn? • Even when a technology is considered “mature” it may greatly evolve • Its potential developments are still extraordinary and unforeseen

  17. 3. Can a technology be simply moved?

  18. Horse vs horseless vehicle

  19. What did we learn? • Mobile internet should not be simply seen as a result of wire-line internet made wireless • Nobody would read an entire book on a collection of “post it” • ……a look to the recent past… • The success of “i-mode” has clearly shown the value of innovation and creativity

  20. Balancing technology and users needs Pure technology? No! ICT innovation for a better quality of life!!

  21. Who is not familiar with this device?

  22. The relevance of quality of life • The first TV remote control in 1950 • Called “Lazy bones” and wire-line • ..Flashmatic, ..Spacecommand..1956 • Its percentage on price exceeded 30% • How much would you save today to live without it? • Yes, we can not live without it!

  23. And that is only the beginning! Don’t we already talk to things?

  24. Two main comments on innovation and key to success

  25. Simplicity will win • The success of a simpler technology against a more complex one: • Telephone over telegraph • IP and internet vs ISDN • SMS vs ISDN D-channel • i-mode vs WAP • Blue-tooth vs DECT • ….and what about Wi-Fi and Wi-Max?

  26. Local first, networking follows • Stereo records and stereo broadcast • Movies and TV • Photo and telephoto • DVD ... HDTV • Multimedia terminal equipment, … broadband communication • Intelligent housewares ….networked home • RFID….. Automated logistics

  27. …and mobility will follow!!

  28. …can we live without a cellular phone?

  29. The myth of Broadband and the value of the Mbyte

  30. “Life begins at 100 Mbit/s” Peter Cochrane, ConceptLabs

  31. What about social impact?

  32. Is BB “la mode”?

  33. A simple access for river exploration

  34. A more powerful one for new discoveries

  35. A false problem • How much transmission capacity (Bandwidth) will customers require? • It is the available capacity and associated services that will condition the real use

  36. Do we know how many litres of water we need for a shower?

  37. Do not set limits to your fantasy!!

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