Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend?

1. Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

2. Introduction

3. Background • Southern Africa has experienced two major food crises during the last 5 years (in 2001/3 and 2005/6) • While the number of food insecure people rises dramatically during crises years, +/- 8 million people are chronically hungry at any time in the region • Growing consensus that we need a different kind of response to address both the chronic and transitory problems Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

4. Study objectives • Consequently a group of RIACSO/IASC members (OXFAM, WVI, CARE, RHVP & OCHA) sponsored this review of lessons learned since the 2001-03 crisis • Asking the following questions: • How has the collective understanding of the problem changed? • Have governments, donors and implementing agencies updated their policies to incorporate this knowledge? • How have programme responses changed? • What impact is this having? Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

5. Scope of the study • Focus on food security • Parallel study on ‘non-food’ responses by UNICEF • Areas of overlap especially around health and nutrition Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

6. Study methodology and approach • Methodology • Study area six EMOP countries • Comparison of response to 2001-03 and 2005/06 crises • Analysis of trends of on-going actions to address the ‘chronic’ problem • Literature review drawing on national studies • Interviews with key informants from diverse stakeholder groups • Study team • Nick Maunder • Steve Wiggins (ODI) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

7. Overview of the presentation • Summarize the food security problem • Highlight changes in the: • Policy and institutional context • Programme responses • Analysis and information systems • Present major conclusions Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

8. Purpose of the presentation • Report still to be finalized • Correct inaccuracies • Identify major omissions • Share and validate preliminary findings Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

9. The food security problem

10. Analyzing the food security problem • To reduce food insecurity need to understand causes • Consensus that the region is facing a chronic livelihoods crisis • However, ‘chronic’ is a shorthand descriptor for a complex set of interlinked problems • A number of contemporary and retrospective studies identified four main overlapping and interacting causes of the crisis … Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

11. The dimensions of food insecurity • Harvest failures (loss of income to farmers and rising prices or all) • Chronic and severe poverty (reduced assets, constrained coping, rising vulnerability) • HIV-AIDS – food security nexus (reduced agricultural productivity, reduced coping capacity, loss of skilled staff) • Poor policy choices (fast track resettlement in Zimbabwe, sale of SGR in Malawi, trade restrictions in Zambia) • Provides a core policy agenda for action Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

12. Expanding the analysis • Common features to the crisis but important national differences • Lesotho land degradation, Malawi prices and incomes, Zimbabwe policy choices, Zambia livestock disease, Mozambique disaster prone, etc. • Limited appreciation of the relative significance and severity of the transient and chronic causes • While famines and disasters demand attention – many more are chronically hungry(90%, FAO) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

13. Expanding the analysis • Transient assumed to be acute …and chronic as mild • In fact • Additional mortalities from 2001-03 food crisis in Malawi est. 3,000 • 350,000 children <5 die each year in southern Africa. This predates the HIV-AIDS crisis • Malnutrition associated with half of all deaths of children worldwide (Pelletier et al, 1995). • Avoidable deaths in the 6 EMOP Countries estimated at over 150,000 every year Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

14. Expanding the analysis … • Focus on food availability and access issues, but global research indicates that approximately extreme poverty accounts for only half the variability in malnutrition rates • The significance of regional decline in basic services of health, education and water; and practices at the household level are under represented in the analysis Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

15. Implications from the analysis • Food insecurity is a complex problem that requires a diverse set of policy and programme responses • Danger of over simplifying the debate to a chronic/predictable response and focusing on the current ‘innovative’ solution • Challenge lies in delivering a balanced and appropriate response, using a number of different instruments, within the resource and capacity constraints • BUT … policy makers still have incomplete information on the relative importance of different causes of food insecurity and policy priorities reducing it Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

16. Policy and institutional context

17. Donor policy trends • Integrating relief and development • Traditional separation of R&D organizationally and financially • Policy changes enabling scope for livelihoods interventions in the midst of the crisis • Example USAID/FFP ‘Development Relief’ strategy, EU LRRD, etc. Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

18. Donor policy trends • Increased aid effectiveness • To achieve MDGs increased aid volumes need to be matched by gains in aid efficiency • Paris declaration; national ownership, donor alignment and harmonization • Compatible with UN reform process and rights based approaches • By 2010 target 85% OECD aid in national budgets, 50% in coordinated programmes • Substantive shift towards budget support in the region (Mozambique, Zambia and Malawi) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

19. National policy trends • What has changed over last 5 years in national policies? 1) Food security policies • Prepared or recently updated across the region (except Zambia) • Post World Food Summit (1995) policy shift from food self sufficiency to food security (availability, access, utilization, stability) • Continuing national focus on food security through agricultural development (eg. Dar es Salaam declaration) but shift in objective from food availability to rural development, employment and incomes • Primarily addresses the problem in developmental terms • Broad ranging and create the necessary space for dialogue • BUT variable ability to tailor the policy and strategy to local conditions Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

20. National policy trends 2) Social protection policies • Policy formulation process evident in Malawi and Zambia • Expansion of limited safety net to establishing a wide ranging social protection strategy • Significance of promoting predictability and national ownership • Strong donor interest (WB, DFID, EU, UNICEF, ILO, FAO) • National governments more cautious • Concerns on multiple demands on budget, entrenching dependency and appropriate targeting criteria Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

21. National policy trends 3) Progress in mainstreaming HIV-AIDS in policies • Considerable external investment and leadership • Significant resources underpinning push, eg. USAID / PEPFAR 4) Updating disaster management policies • Institutional improvements, but DM still largely off budget • Policy debate on adopting a disaster risk reduction approach (from preparedness/response to prevention/mitigation) but limited progress • Governments committed to establishing a regional strategic grain reserve to mitigate staple price fluctuations • Donors concerned about market disincentives and management issues Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

22. Implications of policy trends • Stakeholders (UN, NGOs, donors, Governments) are starting to rethink their roles in relation to policy formulation and implementation within the new aid architecture • Improved policy frameworks are facilitating a dialogue on appropriate responses to the causes of food insecurity • Lack of consensus on key policy issues • Failure to follow through from policy development to implementation Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

23. Programme responses

24. Resource flows • Humanitarian resource flows into Africa are increasing rapidly • $1billion in 1997, $3billion in 2003 • Estimated that $300 billion will be spent on ‘emergencies’ in Africa between 2000-2020 • While the absolute amounts are increasing response dominated by food aid: • Food aid 80% of 2001-03 regional appeal and 66% of 2005-06 Malawi flash appeal • Short comings food aid as a primary response well acknowledged; expensive, late, short term, symptomatic and inappropriate • Yet donors struggle to reorient expenditure (DFID Zambia spent 66% of 2005-06 Zambia humanitarian aid budget on food) • Mix of political incentives and institutional rigidities are maintaining the status quo • Food insecurity is worsening in SSA Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

25. Resource flows • Developmental resource flows by donors are not increasing at a commensurate rate and can be dwarfed by humanitarian aid Total Official Development Assistance (ODA) in Southern Africa (All donors: 1996 – 2004) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

26. Resource flows • Nor are national governments honouring political commitments to increase expenditure on key food security budget priorities Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

27. Emergency response • Innovations are largely occurring at the local or pilot level: • Experimentation with resource transfers • Cash transfers for emergencies (OXFAM, CONCERN, etc.) • Using markets to deliver in-kind assistance (C-SAFE Market Assistance Programme) • Improved ability to finance disaster response • Weather insurance (WB Malawi) • SAFEX futures options (WB et al. Malawi) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

28. Emergency response • and institutional innovations … • Networking and co-ordination • Information sharing (OCHA, SARPAN, RHVP, RENEWAL) • Coordination (SETSAN, JFSTF) • Implementation (C-SAFE, RDT, donor groups) • Strengthening national capacities • Food aid deliveries through Govt of Malawi • BUT little progress in reducing the incidence and severity of shocks and emergencies Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

29. Addressing the chronic problem • Development of social protection programmes • SP not new – well established programmes but generally under-funded and under capacitated (eg. GAPVU, PWAS) • National governments focussing on agricultural input supply (Malawi and Zambia) but impacts controversial • Donor pilots (eg. Kalomo project in Zambia) providing unconditional cash transfers to the poorest • On-going debate on: • Purpose (consumption smoothing vs productivity enhancements) • who to target (depth of poverty vs. incapacitated poor) • form of transfer (unconditional vs. conditional transfers) • Limited progress towards harmonized national systems with donor buy-in Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

30. Addressing the chronic problem • Livelihoods development • Greater willingness to fund livelihoods interventions from humanitarian budgets (DFID PRRO in Zimbabwe, C-SAFE) • Concentration on promoting a core set of technologies (conservation farming, vegetable gardens, micro-irrigation) • Tendency to a narrow set of livelihood options (what is missing – markets, infrastructure, etc.) Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

31. Addressing the chronic problem Estimates of who the food insecure are (Global estimate UN Millennium Task Force) • Evidence base on impacts is extremely limited • Challenge of scaling-up livelihoods interventions through national systems • Are these interventions enough to transform rural livelihoods? Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

32. Information systems

33. Analysis and information systems • Food security information from a variety of sources – but VACs attract considerable attention • Considerable value added of the VAC system • credible and timely needs assessments • methodological improvements (food access) • building networks for • reinforced government role Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

34. Analysis and information systems • Cognizant of role in spanning transitory and chronic analyses • Users perceive the main value in food aid needs assessments • (Unintentionally) reinforces current patterns of response • Demand for: • Needs assessments with improved accuracy and scope • A diversified and well justified recommendations on policy and programme responses • Solid market analysis to underpin resource choices • Information on incidence and causality of chronic food insecurity • Better measures of progress in combating transient and chronic food insecurity • Need to consider what is affordable and sustainable in a national system Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

35. Concluding comments

36. What progress has been made? • Considerable progress has been achieved but it is clear that there is still a lot more work to be done … • Vastly improved analysis of the causes of food insecurity – reminder of the scale and complexity of the task • Commitment to creating a harmonized national policy framework for an appropriate response … • BUT a lack of consensus on policy content persists and lack of capacity in Government to formulate and implement policy • Significant innovation in emergency response … • BUT little progress beyond the pilot stage, no agreement on handling staple food price spikes and largely a transient response to the transient shock Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

37. What progress has been made? • Appreciation of chronic nature of food security has pushed social protection to the fore… • BUT important differences in donor and national government perspectives and without long term financial commitments by donors progress may be limited • Livelihoods developments are increasingly being implemented in the sphere of humanitarianism… • BUT is this appropriate, interventions not being scaled up, unlikely to reverse overall levels of poverty and there are few ideas on macro level solutions • Information systems are delivering credible estimates of immediate needs .. • BUT offer unsupported diversified response recommendations and limited authority for proposing development solutions Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

38. Future priorities … • Wide variety of problems and broad range of possible solutions • Given the limited capacities and political energies of governments not realistic to suggest comprehensive action on food security • Need to focus on generating consensus on a limited number of priority actions that are feasible • Suggest three key areas for action … Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

39. Future priorities … 1. Dealing with the consequences of harvest failures • Huge food security implications of wide price fluctuations in inland areas of southern Africa • Despite predictability of periodic crises response is still largely ad hoc • Need to develop a plan to ensure that adequate food is widely available on the market at a price that is stable and affordable • Disagreement over the role of government intervention in markets Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

40. Future priorities … 2. Social protection for the poorest • Public support for those without capacity to generate income or community support • Donor/NGO perspectives out of kilter with those of national Government • SP vital if dealing with chronically poor, but governments more concerned with overall development crisis • Ultimately hard choices between SP and investments in the economy • Differences in perceptions of entitlements; deserving and undeserving poor • Undermining informal coping strategies and creating dependency • Danger that donor preferences are foisted on Governments • Strong reasons for establishing national schemes of public assistance to the old, very young and incapacitated Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability

41. Future priorities … 3. Supporting the delivery of basic services; health, education and water • Social protection is making food element predictable but further marginalizes non food elements • Appreciation of the importance of factors beyond food availability and access in reducing food insecurity • Must ensure the quality delivery of basic social services through coordinated strategies and responses Food security in Southern Africa: Changing the trend? Review of lessons learnt on recent responses to chronic and transitory hunger and vulnerability