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Natural Resources, Transportation and Economic Prosperity

www.tobiasmadden.com. Natural Resources, Transportation and Economic Prosperity. Outline. Economic outlook Affect on Region/Sectors: Agriculture Mining/Energy Transportation Q & A. World Economy Continues to Grow. Source: The Economist. 2015 Country Outlook. Source: IMF.

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Natural Resources, Transportation and Economic Prosperity

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  1. www.tobiasmadden.com Natural Resources, Transportation and Economic Prosperity

  2. Outline • Economic outlook • Affect on Region/Sectors: • Agriculture • Mining/Energy • Transportation • Q & A

  3. World Economy Continues to Grow Source: The Economist

  4. 2015 Country Outlook Source: IMF

  5. U.S. economy is in a long expansion

  6. Slow Growth is Expected in U.S. Source: Minneapolis Fed

  7. Inflation Below Target Source: Minneapolis Fed

  8. Unemployment Rate Steady Source: Minneapolis Fed

  9. Optimism is High Source: Minneapolis Fed

  10. Key Takeaway:Economy Should Grow, But… • Risks! • Fiscal/ Monetary issues • Europe • China • Agriculture • Unlucky • Others?

  11. GDP Varies by State

  12. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  14. Source: Minneapolis Fed

  15. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  16. Ag harvests are key • 2015 Corn and Soybean yields up, Wheat harvest down • Spills over into: • Energy • Transportation • Manufacturing • Wholesale/retail

  17. Region is Interdependent • “Roughly 20% of the cost of producing grain comes from oil” • “From 2000 to 2011, America went from using 6% of its corn crop (the world’s biggest) to make ethanol, to 40%” Source: Economist

  18. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  19. Source: Minneapolis Fed

  20. Mining: Boom Bust cycles • BUSTS: Continental Mine closes in in 1983, reopens in 1986, closes in 2000, reopens in 2003 • BOOM: Profit sharing was huge boom to Butte economy in mid 2000’s

  21. Source: Yahoo Finance

  22. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  23. Transportation • Rail bottlenecks  Increased Cap Ex • Truck Driver shortage • Bridge, road and lock infrastructure problems • Leads to (in)effeciencies down the value chain.

  24. Many industries depend on natural resources and transportation • Utilities • Manufacturing • Trade • Impact is on 27 percent of GDP

  25. Questions? toby@powerparametrics.com tobiasmadden.com clubfedbook.com @TobyCMadden @clubfedbook

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