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Real Emissions Estimates

This article discusses the improved methodologies for estimating annual national emissions, including a clarification on the usage of reference approaches, sectoral approaches, and simple emission estimates for F gases and landfills. These changes will result in better estimates of annual national emission inventories, more comparable emission estimates between countries, and a clear route for future improvements.

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Real Emissions Estimates

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  1. Real Emissions Estimates William Agyemang-Bonsu Environmental Protection Agency Ghana

  2. EMISSION Inventories • Aim is to provide methodologies to estimate annual national emissions • This is not true for all the 1996 guidelines • “potential” emissions (i.e. sum of all future emissions) • “reference approach” different methodology • For the 2006 guidelines it is possible to replace these “potential” approaches. • This is due to better understanding of the sectors, and more data especially in regions outside Europe and North America

  3. Usage of reference approach clarified. • For emissions from energy use as in current guidelines • Guidelines use a “Sectoral approach” • Fuel use by sector (e.g. power generation, road transport etc.) • Based on national (preferable) or international energy statistics • Provides transparent and comparable estimates • “Reference Approach” is not for emission estimates • A simple check on a major emission sector • Based on Energy balance so fuel use by individual sectors is not available and so emissions of non-CO2 gases VERY uncertain

  4. Simple emission estimates for F gases • Current guidelines allow a “potential” estimate to be used (i.e. sum of all future years.) • So potential and actual estimates NOT compatible • Usually overestimates as sector is growing • A new Tier 1 approach has been devised • Based on regional default information • Requires the same information as potential approach and is as simple to perform • Replaces potential estimates as simplest “good practice” approach • Enables local national difference to be easily and transparently included

  5. Simple FOD Tier 1 for Landfills • Existing “mass balance” approach is a “potential” emissions approach. • This can be replaced by a simple first order decay model. • The simplest use of this model only requires waste arisings in the current year • It requires NO more information than the old mass balance approach • A spreadsheet is provided so it is very easy to use • It is also simple and transparent to make improvements using local information (i.e. age of landfills, changes in waste composition, changes in waste disposal methods…)

  6. Time Series Consistency • New approaches for F gases and Landfills “automatically” calculate time series. • New time series produced with little extra effort so additional recalculation not needed • Opportunity to include national information in a transparent way • General guidance on time series consistency is given on volume 1 – “General Guidance and Reporting”

  7. Conclusions • These changes will result in: • Better estimates of annual national emission inventories • More comparable emission estimates between countries • Easier and transparent to include information on individual national differences • Clear and simple route to future improvements

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