By MRS FUNKE ARABA- LASHMAN Managing director, Knowledge Transfer Consultant Ltd Presented by

1. LINKING NATURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: LOOKING INTO THE FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGIES By MRS FUNKE ARABA- LASHMAN Managing director, Knowledge Transfer Consultant Ltd Presented by CHIEF (ENGR). INVENTOR OKON EFFIONG ESSIEN IP Consultant At NOTAP- ISESCO National Workshop On The Integration Of Technology Foresight Into National Developmental Programmes Venue: Reiz Continental Hotel Central Business Area, Abuja Date; 23rd – 25th February 2011 Time: 9.00 a.m. daily

2. PRESENTATION OUTLINE • Introduction-basic definitions • Linking Natural and Social Science through Technology Foresight (TF) • Table 1: Countries and Years of Technology Foresight Studies • Approaches of Technology Foresight Studies • Experience of other countries in Technology Foresight Projects. • South Africa TF(MAY 1997- JUNE 1998) • Nigeria’s strategy in looking into future technologies • Conclusions and recommendations

3. INTRODUCTION-BASIC DEFINITIONS • natural science refers to a naturalistic approach to the study of the universe, which is understood as obeying rules or laws of natural origin e.g. biology, chemistry, or physics that deals with the objects, phenomena, or laws of nature and the physical world. • Social science is any discipline or branch of science that deals with or studies the sociocultural aspects of human behaviour e.g. social psychology. economics, political science, sociology, criminology etc

4. LINKING NATURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE THROUGH TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT (TF) • Technology foresight is a prediction methodology for determining the most likely technological developments in the mid-term future. • TF brings together prominent members of business and academia, bridging the gap between them, creating and strengthening contacts. These experts come from natural and social sciences sectors of the economy. The timeframe of foresight studies usually ranges between 10 and 30 years.

5. Table 1: COUNTRIES AND YEARS OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDIES

6. APPROACHES OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDIES • It is run among a large number of specialists of diverse backgrounds (natural and social scientists, government officials, businessmen, industrialists etc.) to validate several hundreds of specific predictions about the future and collect opinions on the subject (grouped into several fields).. • The most commonly used approach of technology foresight is to conduct a Delphi survey accompanied by seminars and workshops. The Delphi Survey technique is a popular method used in technology foresight and other future studies. It involves a panel of experts from natural and social sciences that judge the timing, probability, importance, and implications of factors, trends, and events regarding the problem in question. • The basic idea of the Delphi method is as follows: • create a list of statements/questions • have the experts give their ratings/answers/etc. • make a report - send it out to everyone • have the experts revise their answers • make the second report

7. EXPERIENCE OF OTHER COUNTRIES IN TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROJECTS. • Netherlands the broader community is usually involved. • The Japanese usually focused only on conducting Delphi surveys of future technological trends, whereas the UK foresight employed various methodologies including Delphi surveys and scenario analysis • . The United States concentrates instead on drafting lists of critical technologies. The foresight exercise in South Africa, though informed to some extent by approaches of other countries, had to adopt its own approach to fit the South African context e.g. wider community involvement in the process, combination of techniques. (SWOT) scenario analysis and survey of opinions on research and technology trends.

8. SOUTH AFRICA TF(MAY 1997- JUNE 1998)

9. SOUTH AFRICA TF contd • Strategic analysis and choices   Future research and technology challenges and market opportunities over the next 10-20 years were identified and strategies developed around them. • Survey and workshops   An audit of the future science and technology needs of communities were conducted via workshops and surveys. Opinions of knowledgeable people in the sector on various issues were sought in a questionnaire-based survey. It focused on perceptions of South Africa's status (current and future) as well as on appropriate strategies that may improve competitiveness. Communication with sector stakeholders was maintained throughout the process. • TF Outputs-10-20 years huge growths in the information and digital Economies, Bio-informatics e.t.c. • Economy to impact on a number of sectors such as agriculture, recombinant DNA and genetically Modified Foods), Health (transgenic foods, gene therapy, micro bio-sensors) materials (molecular mapping and atomic architecture) and others.

10. NIGERIA’S PROPOSED STRATEGY IN LOOKING INTO FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES 1) Establishment of TF Center in NOTAP This strategy will require National Office for Technology Acquisition and Promotion (NOTAP) to apply to government to establish TF Center as a unit in the office similar to PIDC. This will enable the office to engage in additional mandate of: • Conducting TF with the aid of experts for the nation to identify the critical technologies, which are very important to reach the national aims by year 20: 2020 and beyond. It will contribute to the national economical growth, science and technology development, social progress and the national defense. The foresight results will: • provide important support for the decision making in national S & T planning and economical development planning, particularly by center Government but also by industry and local government. • direct R & D activities in the institutes and universities, • offer the reference for the enterprises to select the technologies, • stimulate new and continuing dialogue between the science base and industry, and forges tie between the institutes, universities and enterprises.

11. NIGERIA’S PROPOSED STRATEGY IN LOOKING INTO FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES contd 2) Identifying key technologies for Nigeria • An expert group on "Key technologies for Nigeria in 2020 should be set up immediately with the purpose of organizing Foresight work at national and international levels in relation to the following areas of science and technology: Biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technologies, communication technologies, transport technologies, energy technologies, environmental research, social sciences and humanities, manufacturing and materials technologies, health research, agricultural research, cognitive sciences, safety technologies, complexity research and systemic, service research etc

12. NIGERIA’S PROPOSED STRATEGY IN LOOKING INTO FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES CONTD • 3) Promotion of West African Sub regional TF Projects Collaborating with UNIDO to organize West African Sub regional TF Projects in at least Information, Advanced Manufacturing, Agriculture, Biotechnology and Nanotechnology Field-groups in the foresight project will be engaged in • Preparing the candidate technologies; • Designing the questionnaires and making the investigation; • Being responsible for data processing and analyzing in relevant field; • Building up the technology database and composing the report in relevant field

13. NIGERIA’S PROPOSED STRATEGY IN LOOKING INTO FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES CONTD 4) Strengthening collaboration of all natural and social science institutions in the country so as to provide synergy in dealing with future technologies. Knowledgeable experts from these institutions should meet quarterly to examine the future science and technology projects that will lead to sustainable development and advise government

14. INTRODUCTION-BASIC DEFINITIONS contd • sustainable development as building our communities so that we can all live comfortably without consuming all of our resources. It can also be defined as ‘meeting the needs of present generation without compromising those of the future generation’ These needs can only be met in a science and technology driven economy with new technology and industrial policies that balance competiveness against unemployment, inequality, sustainability and risks. This requires new policy making tools and Technology Foresight (TF) is the most prominent tool among them that can link natural and social sciences for sustainable development using future technologies .

15. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS • Natural and social sciences are increasingly recognized as determinant factor of sustainable national development. The two sciences have to be closely linked through technology foresight studies in Nigeria as is practiced in other developed and developing countries. It is therefore recommended that a Technology Foresight Center (TFC) should be established in NOTAP to facilitate engagements in technology foresight projects to assess the future of science, technology and innovation for sustainable development in the country. • Collaboration with UNIDO to organize west African sub-regional technology foresight projects should be initiated by NOTAP through federal ministry within the first quarter of this year.